Thanks for hitting the highlights, Matt! I was very impressed by:
103% revenue growth and 116% subscription revenue growth!
Cash flow positive this quarter! (Generated $1.4 million)
-NRR (net retention rate) of 147% The only (legit) rate I’ve seen this high is Twilio’s. (Pivotal tried to boast a high subscription retention rate, but that was bogus because they were stealing from their non-sub revenue, Nutanix-style.) Crowdstrike backed theirs up by adding that their customers who have “4 or more cloud modules” are up from 30% of overall customers at the end of fiscal 2018 to 47% of overall customers as of the end of fiscal 2019 (one quarter ago). Wow.
Guidance to 87% growth next quarter and guidance to 75% growth for the year! That’s incredible. Even Zoom only guided to 63% growth for the year…of course they might just beat by a larger percentage, but 75% is still an incredibly impressive guide!
They added 543 total customers (total now 3,059) in 90 days…wow that’s crazy momentum from the IPO.
I calculate roughly 300m in TTM revenue. But next quarter that will be about 350m, then we can assume 400m+ the next quarter and maybe 475m or more for the year (instead of the 436m they guided to, which as you said they will beat and raise each quarter)!
Conclusion
It’s hard to even keep up with this much growth. It kind of feels like they’re growing even faster than they expected. I increased my 2.5% position to more like 4.5% after hours. Guess it will be 5% or so when the market opens! Why don’t I hold a 10% position? 2 reasons: 1) I don’t really understand the company/industry that well yet. 2) It’s still verrrrrrrrry expensive at a PS of 50+. Multiple contraction will happen eventually and will cut into gains. Still, if they had 475m in revenue, like I expect they will 3 quarters hence, the PS would be around 30. If they indeed are still growing revenue at 80% or 90% at that point, a PS of 30 is a steal.
Bear
PS - note, I’m still penciling in roughly 200m shares outstanding. They said in their S-1 that they have “178,688,971 shares of Class B common stock outstanding.” They had another something like 20m in shares and options at the IPO…I’m not good enough to figure it exactly so I have to wait and see with these IPOs. Roughly 200m seems to be what Yahoo is using. (You can’t use the average shares from their press release, because they expect 129.9m next quarter and 147m for the year. But I assume that’s because some shares won’t yet be converted…or something.)