Here’s what I’m expecting from DDOG tomorrow morning when they report. I’m wanting to be mindful that Q1 is seasonally their weakest Q, and that they gave their lowest guide since 2020 in their most recent guidance.
Revenue: 366.12 to 370 (84.44% to 86.4% yoy)
Nongaap gross margin: ~80%
nongaap operating margin: 22 to 25%
FCF: 120m+
DBNRR over 130%: yes
The 100k customers added will be interesting. I would consider it pretty good if they can add a similar number of customers to this cohort as they did in the prior quarter (210 sequentially). So if they end up around 2220 in this group I’ll be happy.
Curious to see what others think!
FlyForest
16 Likes
I don’t look this much at FCF, because it can impacted by financial and investing activity.
A better picture about the operating business is in my opinion the operating cash flow. And here the results are very good for the first quarter: $147.4 mio or $382 mio for the last 4 quarter.
This increased the margin for operating cash flow to 32%.
You revenue expectation was too high. I think we should expect declining growth rates You expected acceleration. Why?
3 Likes
I agree with Zerohedge,
This is the data for 2020, 2021 and my estimates for 2022:
Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/21
Revenue 131 140 155 178 199 234 270 326
yoy(%) 87% 68% 61% 56% 51% 67% 75% 84%
Q1/22 Q2/22 Q3/22 Q4/22
363 424 475 546
83% 81% 75% 67%
This above decline in revenue growth for 2022 would Still present an increase in YoY
2019 2020 2021 2022E
Revenue. 363 603 1,029 1,813
YoY 83% 66% 70% 76%
I liked the revenue growth and the customer over +100m$ count increase for this quarter very much.
Best
Jason
6 Likes
Hi zerohedge,
My expectation for continued acceleration was based on the guidance they gave in the prior quarter. DDOG’s average qoq top end guidance beat in 2021 was about 9.14. The lower end of my revenue expectation of 366 would have only been a 8% guidance beat, which I thought was conservative in light of their history of massive beats. I’m also somewhat disappointed in the q2 guidance which was also lower than I expected. I was happy with them exceeding all my other expectations aside from the DBNRR which will be announced in the call soon.
I will still need to listen to the call to gauge how my overall feelings about the quarter, but I think I’m somewhere in the middle about it now.
FlyForest
I don’t look this much at FCF, because it can impacted by financial and investing activity.
Actually FCF is exactly what you want to look at. It can’t be impacted by financial and investing activity and is much harder for a company to fluff the numbers.
FCF = net cash provided by operating cashflow - Purchases of property and equipment- capitalized software development costs (if it is a software company)
Andy
18 Likes