Delocalization Effects on CASY AMZN

Gettinsomcoffeee wrote: My time in the navy: I did navigation on a world war two re-commissioned sea plane tender using a sextant and dead reckoning…No GPS yet in 1965.

And all USN Navigators are still required to know how to use the sextant. You will never find a USN commissioned ship that doesn’t have a compass and sextant onboard. And that won’t change for some time to come…

And all USN Navigators are still required to know how to use the sextant. You will never find a USN commissioned ship that doesn’t have a compass and sextant onboard. And that won’t change for some time to come…

I hope they also have a hard copy of the current nautical almanac. The sextant is not much use without it if the electronics are fried or the power is out.

The Captain

For example, self-driving cars would eliminate congestion in cities, and allow a lot of parking lots to be re-used for either green spaces or building sites.

I’ve tried to figure out how self-driving cars would eliminate congestion but my imagination has failed me. A system running at maximum capacity with latent (unsatisfied) demand responds to added capacity with added use. It seems to me they would allow reaching an even greater level of congestion by “optimizing” traffic flow.

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Since I live in Idaho (and ski there), I wanted to contribute this trivia to the discussion:

The First Chairlift. The first chairlift was installed at Sun Valley, Idaho, in 1936 and began operation in December. The lift was on Dollar Mountain and not Mount Baldy where most of Sun Valley’s skiing occurs today.

I rode that single chair in the 60’s. Mercifully, it has been replaced by quads and gondolas :slight_smile:

Gary

RHinCT,

I’ve tried to figure out how self-driving cars would eliminate congestion but my imagination has failed me. A system running at maximum capacity with latent (unsatisfied) demand responds to added capacity with added use. It seems to me they would allow reaching an even greater level of congestion by “optimizing” traffic flow.

I think there will be a transition period where the mix of autonomous and driver-controlled vehicles will co-exist, and the number of cars may well increase. But the economics of car ownership, coupled with the ready availability of on-demand “taxibots” will rapidly drive down urban car ownership. Here is a snippet from this story in the The Economist

http://worldif.economist.com/article/12123/horseless-driverl…

An OECD study modelling the use of self-driving cars in Lisbon found that shared “taxibots” could reduce the number of cars needed by 80-90%. Similarly, research by Dan Fagnant of the University of Utah, drawing on traffic data for Austin, Texas, found that an autonomous taxi with dynamic ride-sharing could replace ten private vehicles. This is consistent with the finding that one extra car in a car-sharing service typically takes 9-13 cars off the road. Self-driving vehicles could, in short, reduce urban vehicle numbers by as much as 90%.

Since they are always “on”, and require downtime only to recharge, the fleet of vehicles need not be nearly so huge. Most private cars sit idle 90-95% of the day, whereas “taxibots” would be utilized 90% of the time.

Tiptree, Fool One guide

That addresses parking spaces to be sure, but not rush hour.

I figure technology, mostly via self-driving cars, reduces rush hour at least 4 ways:

  1. Videoconferencing gets so good that the value of meeting in person is significantly reduced, so fewer people commute.

  2. Self-driving cars, due to their ability to:
    a) avoid accidents
    b) stack in tightly, in formation when makes sense
    c) optimize routes
    are able to achieve much greater traffic throughput on existing roadways.

  3. There will be fewer round trips. E.g. my mom will no longer need to drop me at the airport and return home. I’ll just take a 1-way there.

  4. Street parking is no longer needed, thus creating 1 additional lane many places in the city. Though they could easily be turned into bike lanes for exercise or whatever.

There are almost certainly other factors too.

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“In 1945 my grandmother in Budapest had a coal stove, gas lights and no electricity or telephone”

Danny, I was 13 years old in Budapest when we got our first phone and that was 1989

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Danny, I was 13 years old in Budapest when we got our first phone and that was 1989

The Lost World of CCCP! :wink:

Denny Schlesinger

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Utahchris - You make some very interesting points such as the ability of self-driving cars to stack tightly, avoid accidents and optimize routes. With human drivers on the road, I would think auto-automobiles efficiency will decrease. Having to deal with the idiot human not communicating with the rest of the pack would slow things down.

Certainly, round trips would be a thing of the past which is also interesting.

The need, or lack thereof, for street parking is interesting to consider as well. Although the need will probably exist until human drivers are eliminated.

Again, this is definitely a fun topic to consider. I think we have to consider it in two distinct elements - with and without human drivers.

Regards,
A.J.

Sorry, Tiptree, I still don’t get it.

Isn’t it use, rather than ownership, that makes congestion? The number of people going somewhere will not go down just because they are using taxibots.

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But, much of the congestion is due to accidents. Reduce those by 90% and roads should be much clearer.

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Certainly, round trips would be a thing of the past which is also interesting.

Only to the extent that there is demand for a ride in the opposite direction within a reasonable time interval. Otherwise, that car has to go somewhere.

There are some things here that are true, but there are many that smack of the 1964 World’s Fair “We’ll all have flying csrs in 20 years” too.

Calling a car on your phone means you have to wait for it to arrive. People already don’t want to wait 5 minutes for a bus. They’re going to walk out of the house and wait for a car to show up?

The transition to “automated cars” is going to take significantly longer than these cheery predictions. There are still going to be human driven cars on the roads for 30-40 years, perhaps forever, unless you’re somehow going to retrofit every used car in the country and pass a law saying you have to spent $20,000 to do so. Unlikely, at best.

The incidence of accidents will go down, perhaps, but that hardly means “insurance” will go away. And if there are accidents of any kind, there will be lawyers. And where there are lawyers there will be more lawyers.

3D printers are nowhere near providing “airplane parts”, which must be approved and vetted by the FAA for a variety of things, not the least of which is “reliability.” Could they be used to repair a seat back or something? OK. An engine part? Not very likely, at least on anything that actually carries passengers.

Solar power will surely become more significant, but humans have shown an astounding ability to consumer more electricity year after year. We started with a single lightbulb hanging from a wire in the middle of the room. Now we have washers and dryers and phone chargers and TiVos and security systems and wall warts and air conditioners and I am pretty sure that more will come to be, not the least of which are the “agriculture robots” (???) that are predicted here. (Yes, I am aware of the robotic systems for milking cows, for instance. Which cost $10 million to install and maintain, and which I don’t think farmers in Kenya will be deploying anytime soon.)

So yes, there will be many and various changes. The Internet/smartphone has already destroyed many industries - including newspapers and (perhaps) the TV networks, photo printing paper, some retail stores, and more … But then some things have grown up to replace them. I see more UPS trucks daily and more “news” websites and even more “colleges”, in spite of the free on-line Universities that proliferate.

It’s an entertaining piece, but needs to be taken with a diesel powered human driven accident prone dump truck full of salt.

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3D printers are nowhere near providing “airplane parts”

Airbus presents 3D-printed mini aircraft
http://phys.org/news/2016-06-airbus-3d-printed-mini-aircraft…

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Goofyhoofy,

I agree with almost everything you say and gave you a rec. I agree with everything but this:

3D printers are nowhere near providing “airplane parts”, which must be approved and vetted by the FAA for a variety of things, not the least of which is “reliability.” Could they be used to repair a seat back or something? OK. An engine part? Not very likely, at least on anything that actually carries passengers.

Because you see…

In 2016, GE Aviation will introduce the first 3D-printed parts in an aircraft engine platform. Each of the new CFM LEAP engines, produced jointly by GE and its long-time partner, Snecma (SAFRAN) of France, will have 19 3D-printed fuel nozzles in the combustion system that could not be made any other way. The benefits of printing these parts are numerous…

From http://www.geglobalresearch.com/innovation/3d-printing-creat…

IMHO, as a lot of posters on this board have already pointed out, it’s just so hard to predict what the future holds. Some areas will inevitably advance far more than we can possibly imagine (like 3D printed airplane parts) and some will probably advance far less than we would have thought. For better or for worse, we live in interesting times and who knows what our children and grandchildren will live to see!

Matt
MasterCard (MA) and PayPal (PYPL) Ticker Guide
See all my holdings at http://my.fool.com/profile/CMFCochrane/info.aspx

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Since we are reminiscing, it might interest you to know some facts about the Nasa computer used to guide the lunar missions that safely took man to the moon and back…

Apollo Guidance Computer

The lunar mission used a command module computer designed at MIT and built by Raytheon, which paved the way to “fly by wire” aircraft.

The so-called Apollo Guidance Computer (AGC) used a real time operating system, which enabled astronauts to enter simple commands by typing in pairs of nouns and verbs, to control the spacecraft. It was more basic than the electronics in modern toasters that have computer controlled stop/start/defrost buttons. It had approximately 64Kbyte of memory and operated at 0.043MHz.

http://www.computerweekly.com/feature/Apollo-11-The-computer…

For comparison; a basic mini calculator, many children’s toys, the apple watch, even the basic TV remote today has more computing power than those super advanced Nasa computers of that era.

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Invest wisely my friends
CMFSoloFool
Ticker Guide: AFSI, NTGR and OTEX

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Whilst you guys are in the mood for some trend breaking shock and awe, this piece is really fascinating. There is something in it for everyone from old timers to millennials from ecommerce to self driving cars and from socio demographics to ad blocking …
http://www.kpcb.com/blog/2016-internet-trends-report
Ant
(Yes it probably deserves to be on METAR and NPI).

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(Yes it probably deserves to be on METAR and NPI).

And on Improve The Fool

Internet advertising (particularly via mobile) continues to grow, but so does ad-blocking, pushing the envelope on development of more innovative ad formats.

Foolish ads were making the boards inoperative for me, they would not load. I reported it several times on Improve The Fool. It was not fixed. I would turn off JavaScript but then other sites would stop working. Finally I downloaded Adblock Plus. Now TMF boards work like a charm and I don’t miss the ads.

Some sites detect the ad blocker and ask me to turn it off. Last night I really wanted to read a Forbes article so I did. They promised me several months of “ad light” browsing. LOL

I don’t mind ads as long as they don’t interfere with my use of the website. I like informational ads. I hope they learn to make unobtrusive ads which would be the win-win situation.

Denny Schlesinger

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In 2016, GE Aviation will introduce the first 3D-printed parts in an aircraft engine platform. Each of the new CFM LEAP engines, produced jointly by GE and its long-time partner, Snecma (SAFRAN) of France, will have 19 3D-printed fuel nozzles in the combustion system that could not be made any other way. The benefits of printing these parts are numerous…

GE employs 3-D printing in a controlled factory environment for a part that can’t be made any other way. That is a long way from deploying 3-D printing into the aircraft maintenance department to save on having spares on hand.

Don’t forget 3D printed turbine blades

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZQauwHLprCc

and even whole engines

http://www.gizmag.com/ge-fires-up-all-3d-printed-jet-einge/3…

Denny Schlesinger

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