There is was in green. Diesel > $6 per gallon when I went shopping this morning.
My remote area often has higher fuel prices but diesel is spiking all over.
This will impact the price of every good that is shipped, including food.
Gas is spiking, too.
Inflation is bound to follow.
Employment Situation News Release
8:30 a.m. (ET) Friday, April 3, 2026
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION – March 2026
Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 178,000 in March, and the unemployment rate
changed little at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains
occurred in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing. Federal
government employment continued to decline…
The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised up by 34,000, from
+126,000 to +160,000, and the change for February was revised down by 41,000, from -92,000 to
-133,000. With these revisions, employment in January and February combined is 7,000 lower
than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received from
businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the
recalculation of seasonal factors.) [end quote]
Today’s strong employment report coupled with rising inflation will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting the fed funds rate. The markets are closed for Good Friday. If news events continue over the weekend there may be a setback when they open on Monday.
It appears that several large countries are dumping U.S. bonds putting some pressure on interest rates also.
This leaves us in a strange situation. People are getting out of the dollar, which would seem to make it fall in value, but getting out of the bonds increases the interest rates in the country and draws capital in which strengthens the dollar.
That has basically been your position for months. Do you think the ‘real’ numbers are better or worse, and by how much?
Do you find it believable that Federal government employment continued to decline?
Do you find it believable that health care employment increased after a strike in California ended?
The inflation rate for the last 12 months is 2.4%. Do you find that believable? Average wage growth over that period was 3.5%. Do you find that believable?
Most of the growth is in Healthcare because a major nursing strike ended. A lot is in Leisure and Hospitality as the vacation season is beginning. Even manufacturing got a little.
No, and no. A sudden reversal in a long term trend requires a cause. A sudden reversal OF SIZE requires a reasonable, even obvious explanation.
The end of the nurses strike put 40,000 nurses back to work. The jump in healthcare is over 75,000 jobs. While healthcare has been increasing, this is truly a significant jump. Why?
As we have seen, these sorts of numbers are wildly variable and often revised. It takes a longer view to suss out the reality. My own eyes tell me that the economy is pretty good but that wages are not, in fact, rising faster than inflation (or there wouldn’t be so many people still yelling about it.) Clearly the oil shock will hit people immediately in the pocketbook, and will roll downhill through supply chains, food and food production, and everything else that powers the modern world.
Unless a solution is found to Hormuz (and no, just “walking away” isn’t it) then we can expect some oil disruption (smaller than total stoppage, of course) for an extended length of time. Perhaps forever, if a “toll” system is officially or even unofficially instituted, and especially if a selective toll system is enforced.
Yes, I was talking to my wife about that. It frustrated her because getting out of treasuries would seem to indicate getting out of dollars, but while the are related, they are not the same.
As treasuries sell off, interest rates in the U.S. may tend to rise, these higher interest rates tend to pull money into the U.S. the opposite of what seems to be happening with the sell off in international treasures.
I might add, I have a little bit of queasiness with my own thoughts. The treasury market is really big and I do not know just how big the international holdings are and if the selling of international holdings would drive prices very far.
The sum total in January of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $25.0 billion.
Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities
Grand total: $9,305.8 billion.
So the change is $25/9,308 = 0.2%. That’s really insignificant.
Furthermore, total Treasury debt is $38,514 billion. A change of $25 billion is almost a rounding error.
It’s true that Treasury yields have risen along the entire yield curve lately but I don’t think the reason is foreign selling - it’s just not a big enough tail to wag the dog.
Wendy
