Docu PDF and annual report

https://s22.q4cdn.com/408980645/files/doc_financials/2019/Q4…

Here is the Docu PDF for the confrence call.

Listened to bit, the Government change was regarded as an increase in TAM but should not impact 2019 much.

Looked in the Edgar Database and pulled up the last years 10-Q and the annual report.

https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=docu&owner=…

Literally using a pencil and a calculator.

Quaterly revenues

137
148 plus 11 up 8 percent
158 plus 10 up 7 percent
169 plus 11 up 8 percent
188 plus 19 up 11 percent

Assuming seasonal variablity and continued execution, I am guessing the next quarters might look like this:

up 11 percent. - There is no prior data available toe so I used a flat line here.

up 10 percent
up 11 percent
up 13 percent

With no compounding, and with continued execution a rough, literally on graph paper estimate is 45 percent growth year over year.

So, at this price, 167 million shares at 60 a share, the market values this company at 10 billion dollars.

That is roughly a forward price to sales of 36. (Next year’s estimated sales (272) times 1.45 divided into the 10,000 million market cap.

So just how wrong am I?

More importantly, if I am right, is this company worth 36 times next years sales?

Thanks
Qazulight

5 Likes

So just how wrong am I?

Well they gave FY20 guidance of over 900m so quite a bit?

Puts P/S closer to 10-12…

7 Likes
Qazu,

It looks like the estimated sales number you are using (272)
is a quarterly number, not annual. You also only used subscription 
revenue, not sure if that was intentional.

Subscription Revenue
     Q1  Q2  Q3  Q4
FY18         123 137
FY19 148 158 169 188 (37% YoY)

Subscription revenue growth appears to be holding steady. 
Of note, the sequential growth between Q3-Q4 for both FY18 
and FY19 is essentially the same at 11%. So steady but not 
accelerating. If you assume the same sequential growth rates 
for next year (8, 7, 8, 11) then Subscription Revenue looks 
like this:

Subscription Revenue
     Q1  Q2  Q3  Q4
FY18         123 137
FY19 148 158 169 188
FY20 203 217 234 260

That would put FY20 Subscription Revenue at 914 million. 
Of course that is only subscription revenue, which is currently 
94% of total revenue (Q4). Total revenue would likely be closer 
to 950-960 million, assuming their other services continues to 
grow at a rate slower than subscription revenue. 

My first post, hopefully it was helpful.

Joe
49 Likes

Qazu,

It looks like the estimated sales number you are using (272)
is a quarterly number, not annual. You also only used subscription
revenue, not sure if that was intentional.

Subscription Revenue
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
FY18 123 137
FY19 148 158 169 188 (37% YoY)

Subscription revenue growth appears to be holding steady.
Of note, the sequential growth between Q3-Q4 for both FY18
and FY19 is essentially the same at 11%. So steady but not
accelerating. If you assume the same sequential growth rates
for next year (8, 7, 8, 11) then Subscription Revenue looks
like this:

Subscription Revenue
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
FY18 123 137
FY19 148 158 169 188
FY20 203 217 234 260

That would put FY20 Subscription Revenue at 914 million.
Of course that is only subscription revenue, which is currently
94% of total revenue (Q4). Total revenue would likely be closer
to 950-960 million, assuming their other services continues to
grow at a rate slower than subscription revenue.

My first post, hopefully it was helpful.

Joe

You nailed it. I forgot to add them up! PS of 11 or 12 is awesome. In this case with the after hours fall we are probably seeing a small window to pick up a blue light special.

MDB was a shocker on the move after earnings, this is more normal, the AI sells on the widening loss and you get a chance to add.

Cheers
Qazulight

4 Likes