Did I do that wrong? (it is a small difference but just curious). Their guidance of $436M (high end) is 46.8% YoY. I added revenue until that number went up ~5% to get to 51.9%. That took me from 1.2% QoQ to 4.7%.
Nope. You weren’t wrong.
We were just referencing two different things, and I misunderstood your baseline. You added 5% to the guided growth rate, so if I have it right your math is the guided 46.8% + ~5% = 51.9% growth. 51.9% growth off last year’s $297 is your $451M, so that’s correct.
I was using their historical beats by dollar amount. Eyeing it up I thought a 5.5% beat was in line with recent quarters, so my math is the guided $436 + (.055 * $436) = $460M. That’s the difference. $460M would be 54.9% Q1 growth and 6.8% QoQ. That sequential growth is more in line with pre-COVID, but of course DOCU would have to show it hold that general QoQ rate beyond Q1 now that it is twice as large. That’s where the huge customer growth and record NRR hopefully lend support.
At this point I consider something low-40’s for the year (you said 42%) as more of a reasonable expectation than best case. I’d view >45% as best case right now, though that could obviously change quickly if sequential growth slows. 42% would put DOCU on par with say OKTA in organic growth at TWICE the run rate and MUCH higher profitability.
DOCU is not CRWD or DDOG, but it’s still good enough to be one of my 10 best ideas (for now). To your point, there are definitely a couple watch listers making some noise. LSPD and NARI are my main contenders, which is the same as you I believe.
Thanks for clarifying the math.
