First a little cleanup on Crowdstrike: https://discussion.fool.com/crowdstrike-priors-34916902.aspx
Most importantly I didn’t address CRWD’s guidance!
Prior Belief: Crowdstrike will increase FY guide to 1412m+. In Q1 they gave 1365.7m, up 45m the previous guide. So I’m guessing they up it a little more than 45m this time.
Also someone asked if Palo Alto’s strong quarter influenced my expectations. Absolutely. I think that backs up the “cybersecurity is seeing tailwinds” hypothesis.
On to Docusign! I have to admit it’s tricky. I thought RunnerGuy did a fine job here, and I think were in line on Revenue and Billings: https://discussion.fool.com/what-to-expect-with-docusign-in-q2-e…
Prior Belief: Docusign’s Revenue will come in around 520m (up 52% YoY and 10.9% sequentially). I wouldn’t be devastated with 515m as long as the guide is strong. And I wouldn’t be shocked to see more. This is especially difficult because they have kicked things into high gear the last several quarters. I’m not sure if the sequential growth will look more like the 12+ they saw in Q2 - Q4 of last year, or more like the 10% or so they have historically seen. 520m is splitting the difference for basically 11% sequential growth.
Prior Belief: Docusign’s Billings will be at least 600m (like RunnerGuy said). Maybe I should say a range of 600m - 620m, because less than 600m would be a little disappointing, and if they came in at more than 620m I think it would be time to get pretty excited.
Prior Belief: Docusign will add between 80,000 and 100,000 New Customers. They came in at 90,000 last quarter but that was an all time high, and with large numbers like these we can’t expect them to add more and more customers each quarter forever. If they hold steady or somewhere around there, I think this is an impressive level even for a very dominant company.
Prior Belief: Docusign’s Enterprise Customers and customers with ACV > $300k will be up around 10% each from their levels of 136,000 and 673 last quarter. Frankly it wouldn’t bother me if these grew 8% and it wouldn’t get me too excited if they grew 12%. But it’s nice to see them going up of course!
Prior Belief: Docusign will raise its FY Revenue Guide to at least 2110m and its FY Billings Guide to at least 2450m. Again, that’s just assuming they add slightly more than they did last quarter.
GM will be over 80%
NRR will stay at 125% or higher
FCF and EPS will continue to tick up
I think these will be fine even if they fluctuate a little, so while I like to see stability and improvement, I’m not going to freak out much will small ups and downs.
I always take Saul’s thoughts seriously – like when he says DOCU is currently a one-trick pony, which is doing very well now, and probably for several more quarters, but after that we are relying on hope that their new products will work. https://discussion.fool.com/could-you-please-comment-further-on-…
The only part I disagree with is that we are relying on their new products to carry them after a few quarters. I think they can grow for years to come on the back of e-signature alone, and any related products that take off are just gravy. I could be wrong, but that’s how I’m seeing it for now.