Shopify is a top 3 position(~9%) for me and wanted to get some feedback from folks that may be in it as well. SHOP has been excruciatingly range bound since about six months starting in early July. Inspired by Saul’s pinpointing to Zoom’s QoQ growth challenges, I took a similar look into SHOP and wonder if it has a similar situation and that is probably why the market is hesitant to push it any higher even after two Quarterly releases and constant flow of small but incremental developments from the company, BFCM-Year End seasonality.
Q3 20 QoQ %revenue growth was the lowest of past 8 quarters, disregarding Q1s because of seasonality.
Rev(YoY) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 YoY %
2018 68% 62% 58% 54% 59%
2019 50% 48% 45% 47% 47.20%
2020 47% 97% 96%
Rev QoQ ($M) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full Year
2018 31 25 73 129
2019 -23 42 29 114 162
2020 -35 244 53
Rev QoQ % Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 12.65% 9.26% 21.28%
2019 -7.19% 11.60% 7.42% 22.57%
2020 -7.45% 34.17% 6.91%
Same story with GMV
GMV ($B) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 8 9.2 10 14
2019 11.9 13.8 14.8 20.6
2020 17.4 30.1 30.9
GMV QoQ($B) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 1.2 0.8 4
2019 -2.1 1.9 1 5.8
2020 -3.2 12.7 0.8
GMV QoQ% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2018 15.00% 8.70% 40.00%
2019 -15.00% 15.97% 7.25% 39.19%
2020 -15.53% 72.99% 2.66%
Yes, there have been at least two rotations away from growth stocks since fall but their peers have recovered and did well.
Lags all other Ecommerce companies since July 1st, and better than only AMZN in YTD performance
Since July 1st YTD
SHOP 3.61% 158.29%
ETSY 52.17% 274.49%
PINS 202.19% 274.20%
AMZN 7.68% 63.32%
FTCH 230.40% 437.08%
MELI 62.66% 160.48%
SE 68.69% 382.22%
Just like Zoom, they may post above normal YoY numbers of >90% in Q4 20 and Q1 21 but that would be less meaningful because of the COVID bump. And if they continue to decelerate on a QoQ basis, they will not be anything more than a 40% grower ( or worse ) like they were beginning of the year. I feel like I’m the last one who has this figured out and shouldn’t have been adding to it to make it a top tier position.
Just wanted to see if anyone see better prospects for Shopify’s stock price gaining momentum anytime soon.
While I’m at this, Also fascinated to learn about the ‘real’ Saul today. Have to confess that when I came upon this board, I googled for Saul and found nothing besides that one MF article and assumed Saul is probably some pseudonym of sorts. Today’s forum news show that I have a lot to learn in doing a proper internet search as well. I want to thank especially Saul, Muji, StockNovice, Bear, Vinegar, GauchoRico, BroadwayDan and countless others that are immensely contributing to my benefit.