Don't forget this with Samsara

Samsara earnings are dropping tonight for their Q4 closing out FY24.

Don’t forget how they have been telegraphing that Q4 has an extra week this year. As a sign of this, they guided for +9% seq growth in Q4 last Q, vs their typical +1-3%.

This extra week is likely to boost current rev and mute the forward Q1 & FY25 guides.

Wonder how the algos will handle it?

52/53 Week FY

Why is this? It’s called the 52/53 week fiscal year, when you have a fiscal year ending on a calculated day of the week, instead of a set calendar day.

See their last annual report: https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001642896/727e02a4-5883-4476-b98a-d9980ff34cca.pdf

The Company’s fiscal year is a 52- or 53-week period ending on the Saturday closest to February 1. The fiscal years ended January 28, 2023 and January 29, 2022 both consisted of 52 weeks. Every sixth fiscal year is a 53-week year. The fiscal year ending February 3, 2024 is the Company’s next 53-week fiscal year, with the fourth quarter consisting of 14 weeks.

ChatGPT tells me that retailers like Walmart, Target, and Best Buy do this to properly align seasonal sales periods, as well as Apple, Dell, Nike, Starbucks, and others.

More on 52/53 week FY here: 4–4–5 calendar - Wikipedia

Unsure why Samsara chose this format but it is what it is.

-muji

53 Likes

Something interesting the CFO said on the last Q3 call was,

“I think the initial FY’25 revenue dollar range that we will provide will be higher than the current consensus number, given that we just beat Q3 and we raised Q4”

The analyst’s consensus 2025 estimate (prior to reporting today) is for 1.16B or 26.6% yoy growth, so they should be able to guide higher than this.

A couple other potential positives for reporting this Q,

  • They said they hired a lot of sales reps last year that are ramped up now
  • Q4 tends to be strongest seasonally because of how their end of year sales quotas work
  • The company itself is guiding for .05 to .06 of Adj EPS, while the analyst’s consensus estimate is only for .03

One potential minus for this Q4 is they said OpEx is likely to be higher than normal.

19 Likes

Guidance from

For FY 25:
Total Revenue: $1,186 million - $1,196 million
Y/Y Revenue Growth: 27% - 28% growth
Y/Y Adj. Revenue Growth 29% - 30% growth
Non-GAAP Operating Margin % : 2%
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.11 - $0.13

23 Likes

IOT has been a frustrating investment. It seems that they always pop after a really great quarterly report, but not long after the stock price trails off - I guess because it just looks (well, is) very expensive.

I’m very tempted to sell my position and then buy it back a week prior to their next report. Yes, I know, that would be an attempt to “time the market,” but this seems to be a predictable pattern.

Temptation isn’t the same as action, but if the stock price falls for two or three consecutive days for no apparent reason I’m going to have to carefully consider this.

Has anyone else noticed this pattern? Thoughts?

14 Likes

Yes, I‘ve noticed the same pattern and came to a similar conclusion.

After the earnings pop, I sold 1/3 of my position over 40$. I will trim it further, if IOT breaks 40$ again, but aim to keep 50% of my initial position, just in case, the pattern breaks at one time. I might add again, if IOT would move to the mid 30s range.

The thesis is very well intact and IOT is a core position in my portfolio. But it gets a bit frustrating between earnings. But with all patterns, at one time they will break and then I don’t want to be out of the position completely.

I am not sure, if all of the above is against the rules, because it is portfolio management. But I felt inclined to at least answer your question and share my views.

Please delete the post, if it is felt inappropriate.

Cheers,
HaikiliKona

12 Likes

It does have big swings, but I’ve held steadily, trimming a few shares once, only because I wanted to top off something else. My position is now up 54.71% so the swings no longer dump me into negative territory and I don’t worry about it.

So, anecdotally, it seems not to swing an equal amount in both directions–higher highs and higher lows.

JR
long IOT 14.91%

20 Likes

Exactly! Good luck on the attempts to time the market, though.
For reference, since November 1st (~4.5 months, current nice run for the whole market):

IOT 68%
AXON 51%
ELF 120%
CELH 88%
CRWD 86%
ZS 27%
DDOG 52%
MNDY 72%
NVDA 119%
SMCI 388%
ASML 61%
MELI 25%
AMZN 33%

Long IOT (5.5%)

9 Likes

I wonder if this has to do with the trickle of news that comes out from Samsara on a day to day basis (really just the big customer lands, very little in the way of product announcements).

The one big catalyst to note is their big Beyond conference in June, where they will add more products in GA (likely some LLM-backed capabilities) and announce the next wave of innovations.

But other than that, the only events are the earnings…

-muji

45 Likes