Yeah…UPST was way up and I was mad I sold yesterday and I blinked and then UPST was below what I sold it as yesterday.
Always good to be an idiot and a genius in the same day.
Not sure if a bear market thing, but in general it seems the first 20 min and last 20 min of the trading days see the most movement. So I am waiting to see if market tries to lift off again near close, making me more likely to think about more shorts ahead of tomorrow.
Dreamer
and we got the late day rally. NVDA short now on.
I have a position in OILK, an ETF that is connected to the price of crude. What I like about it is the dividends that it pays ($7.761551 so far this year)…doc
ProShares K-1 Free Crude Oil Strategy ETF (OILK) Dividend History | Nasdaq
I have a position in OILK, an ETF that is connected to the price of crude. What I like about it is the dividends that it pays ($7.761551 so far this year)…doc
I wanted to go long oil, but saw a very compelling argument against…couple macro guys I respect are on opposite sides of expected oil supply, so I just decided to stay on sidelines.
In other news…I have an anticipation that tomorrow could be wild. Feel like we are getting near the eoy blowoff pop or collapse (maybe both) and I may enter 2023 net or mostly fully short…we will see!
Dreamer
I sort of get, and don’t get, the point of hedged portfolios.
Mine is somewhat hedged at moment.
I am long 4 stocks, and short 2 stocks and short DIA index. Last two days I didn’t move too far up or down, despite market fluctuations. Sentinel gives back gains? Ok - we counter with DIA short gains, etc etc…
Seems like a great way to never do a whole heckuva lot though.
Why am I doing it?
Partly because I believe my long stocks are at decent entry prices, and the short stocks are a bit bloated (like right after 2nd helping of dinner/dessert on thanksgiving) and the DIA is sitting not far off ATH compared to other indexes and even a hint of recession should dampen/pressure P/Es for those stocks.
Not sure if I am trying to convince you or myself. Either way, I kind of need/want extreme moves to either help me add more to shorts or scoop up more stocks at good low prices. This sort of loitering bs is no bueno.
Dreamer
The futures look good for the shorted stocks, no matter what happens today you shouldn´t cover. Last year (when I shorted 2 or 3 times junk like MNDY and UPST), I covered way too early: the timing was bad and after only 2-3 days the losses were pretty high. It really hurt.
Fact is that I would never sell or cover for a gain of 2-3%.
Good luck!
I am up a couple bucks on day so far.
Hedging…it’s a thing. Who knew?
May add to longs soon, as macro whisperers have previously mentioned large friday option expiry causes markets to be pinned, and currently that pin is supposed to be higher than S&P 4000. Who knows.
Dreamer
initial shorting of ind stocks is successful! yea, I am a wimp, but feeling a Friday bounceback. if it doesn’t happen, hopefully I find better long entries.
Nobody knows indeed, but for the moment (two hours before the close), it looks unlikely
that tomorrow the S&P will return to 4000. Miracles happen though.
Covering for a fast gain of 5% was a good move.
Let´s see the stock prices at the end of the day. And tomorrow, eventually.
Yesterday I shorted GLBE, but I wont cover today, no matter what.
don’t disagree, but seems an interesting choice…why them?
Because the stock price fluctuates a lot: I shorted at 24$ and change and covered at 19$, I bought again at 20$ and change and sold al 24$. I have the feeling that the stock price will go back to 17$, especially after Tuesday´s short pop. But (as usual) this might be only wishful thinking. Today it´s holding pretty good, but this doesn´t mean anything.
I remember that some time ago GLBE was a 78$ stock, which I had bought in the low fifties and sold on the way down for a small gain.
I did minor tinkering. My gut said the SPY would rebound into Friday expiry, but my brain said “ain’t worth it, bro” or something like that, so I didn’t bother putting on a very short-term SPY long position.
I have bought some more S and VFC earlier. Nothing major.
Waiting for close, or AHs later, to see about increasing my short position(s).
I have not lost money today…so this whole hedging thing is peaceful and all, but I want to figure out the right combination of longs and shorts that I should ride for a while.
Challenge is that nothing will surprise me at this point…we could plunge into oblivion or do a bunch more BMRs while gradually grinding lower.
I am resigning myself to the fact that the 1H of 2023 may be more of the same of 2022, and that I will simply have to be opportunistic while waiting for a truly clear “all clear” before flipping long, and being fully invested long, for good.
Dreamer
Back into AMZN. Hasn’t been big trades, but have traded them a couple times this year for small gains. Let’s do once more!
flat for the day, despite big market move up at moment. partly because of my continued DIA short, but mostly because the growth cohort, especially security, is awfully muted.
Normally if market is up 1-2%, those stocks are up 4-5%+. Might still be by eod.
Blah.
I am happy that stocks and indexes are climbing, and honestly hope it continues, so that I can more comfortably put on shorts.
Still of the opinion that worst is yet to come, and would like to catch some of that move down, allowing me to be back to full strength and deploy cash at better/lower entry prices lower.
Dreamer
nothingburger of a day for me…
I waited just a bit too long, but got into a new short anyway.
Was really hoping for big UP days today and maybe tomorrow, to put back on shorts with ENPH or NVDA and maybe ULTA.
In meantime, I feel good about next few months being crap for auto, and had seen this short idea on Twitter, and finally took action pre-market on GPI.
Pausing a bit on this GPI short. May be too greedy, but prefer bigger cushion, and I should follow my own POMO rules (when either going long or short) and going short on negative news and on a down day seems to be setting me up for getting a short-term hit if the stock does a dead cat bounce or if market turns around thru EOY. So rather than shorting around $163 area, I will wait and see if it can’t get back above $180 for more cushion.
taking advantage of some POMO dips today…
That worked out well. Even worse for me. How about we open a chapter of UPST Anonymous? We wouldn’t need quite so many steps–or would we?
Good job though, combining COVID and another bad UPST position/trade. I mean, how much worse could you feel? Oh, its like how low can UPST go----->lower. How much worse? ----->worse. Dang!
O.k., I bought the dip on Tuesday, too. But no UPST, and again I didn’t inhale. BILL and GLBE. Little green shoots. Up 2.3% and 2.4%. No options this week, the premiums very much too small to justify the risks.
AND, salve for the wound, look at those BMW stocks, top of the leader board:
VFC +4.2% PVH +1.6 SWK +0.5 MNRO -1.8 SMG -0.29 OLED -1.17
In total I had 5 greens, the three above plus my long term holdings OKE and Lucid’s beloved SPG. Ya, but -cha still lost 0.6% of yer port, dude. That, my friend, is what passes for victory these days.
50.5% cash, a neutrally buoyant POMO position https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8OSIx72KZI
Hang in there, boys and girls,
KC