Dreamer Corp - Port Update

Investment Analysis Clubs Where Angels Fear to Tread
#111

I sort of get, and don’t get, the point of hedged portfolios.
Mine is somewhat hedged at moment.

I am long 4 stocks, and short 2 stocks and short DIA index. Last two days I didn’t move too far up or down, despite market fluctuations. Sentinel gives back gains? Ok - we counter with DIA short gains, etc etc…

Seems like a great way to never do a whole heckuva lot though.

Why am I doing it?
Partly because I believe my long stocks are at decent entry prices, and the short stocks are a bit bloated (like right after 2nd helping of dinner/dessert on thanksgiving) and the DIA is sitting not far off ATH compared to other indexes and even a hint of recession should dampen/pressure P/Es for those stocks.

Not sure if I am trying to convince you or myself. Either way, I kind of need/want extreme moves to either help me add more to shorts or scoop up more stocks at good low prices. This sort of loitering bs is no bueno.

Dreamer

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#112

The futures look good for the shorted stocks, no matter what happens today you shouldn´t cover. Last year (when I shorted 2 or 3 times junk like MNDY and UPST), I covered way too early: the timing was bad and after only 2-3 days the losses were pretty high. It really hurt.
Fact is that I would never sell or cover for a gain of 2-3%.
Good luck!

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#113

I am up a couple bucks on day so far.

Hedging…it’s a thing. Who knew?

May add to longs soon, as macro whisperers have previously mentioned large friday option expiry causes markets to be pinned, and currently that pin is supposed to be higher than S&P 4000. Who knows.

Dreamer

#114

initial shorting of ind stocks is successful! yea, I am a wimp, but feeling a Friday bounceback. if it doesn’t happen, hopefully I find better long entries.

#115

Nobody knows indeed, but for the moment (two hours before the close), it looks unlikely
that tomorrow the S&P will return to 4000. Miracles happen though.

Covering for a fast gain of 5% was a good move.
Let´s see the stock prices at the end of the day. And tomorrow, eventually.

Yesterday I shorted GLBE, but I wont cover today, no matter what.

#116

don’t disagree, but seems an interesting choice…why them?

#117

Because the stock price fluctuates a lot: I shorted at 24$ and change and covered at 19$, I bought again at 20$ and change and sold al 24$. I have the feeling that the stock price will go back to 17$, especially after Tuesday´s short pop. But (as usual) this might be only wishful thinking. Today it´s holding pretty good, but this doesn´t mean anything.
I remember that some time ago GLBE was a 78$ stock, which I had bought in the low fifties and sold on the way down for a small gain.

#118

I did minor tinkering. My gut said the SPY would rebound into Friday expiry, but my brain said “ain’t worth it, bro” or something like that, so I didn’t bother putting on a very short-term SPY long position.

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#119

I have bought some more S and VFC earlier. Nothing major.
Waiting for close, or AHs later, to see about increasing my short position(s).

I have not lost money today…so this whole hedging thing is peaceful and all, but I want to figure out the right combination of longs and shorts that I should ride for a while.

Challenge is that nothing will surprise me at this point…we could plunge into oblivion or do a bunch more BMRs while gradually grinding lower.

I am resigning myself to the fact that the 1H of 2023 may be more of the same of 2022, and that I will simply have to be opportunistic while waiting for a truly clear “all clear” before flipping long, and being fully invested long, for good.

Dreamer

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#120

Back into AMZN. Hasn’t been big trades, but have traded them a couple times this year for small gains. Let’s do once more!

#121

flat for the day, despite big market move up at moment. partly because of my continued DIA short, but mostly because the growth cohort, especially security, is awfully muted.

Normally if market is up 1-2%, those stocks are up 4-5%+. Might still be by eod.

Blah.

I am happy that stocks and indexes are climbing, and honestly hope it continues, so that I can more comfortably put on shorts.

Still of the opinion that worst is yet to come, and would like to catch some of that move down, allowing me to be back to full strength and deploy cash at better/lower entry prices lower.

Dreamer

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#122

nothingburger of a day for me…

#123

I waited just a bit too long, but got into a new short anyway.
Was really hoping for big UP days today and maybe tomorrow, to put back on shorts with ENPH or NVDA and maybe ULTA.

In meantime, I feel good about next few months being crap for auto, and had seen this short idea on Twitter, and finally took action pre-market on GPI.

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#124

Pausing a bit on this GPI short. May be too greedy, but prefer bigger cushion, and I should follow my own POMO rules (when either going long or short) and going short on negative news and on a down day seems to be setting me up for getting a short-term hit if the stock does a dead cat bounce or if market turns around thru EOY. So rather than shorting around $163 area, I will wait and see if it can’t get back above $180 for more cushion.

#125

taking advantage of some POMO dips today…

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#126

That worked out well. Even worse for me. How about we open a chapter of UPST Anonymous? We wouldn’t need quite so many steps–or would we?

Good job though, combining COVID and another bad UPST position/trade. I mean, how much worse could you feel? Oh, its like how low can UPST go----->lower. How much worse? ----->worse. Dang!

O.k., I bought the dip on Tuesday, too. But no UPST, and again I didn’t inhale. BILL and GLBE. Little green shoots. Up 2.3% and 2.4%. No options this week, the premiums very much too small to justify the risks.

AND, salve for the wound, look at those BMW stocks, top of the leader board:

VFC     +4.2%
PVH     +1.6
SWK     +0.5
MNRO    -1.8
SMG     -0.29
OLED    -1.17

In total I had 5 greens, the three above plus my long term holdings OKE and Lucid’s beloved SPG. Ya, but -cha still lost 0.6% of yer port, dude. That, my friend, is what passes for victory these days.

50.5% cash, a neutrally buoyant POMO position https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8OSIx72KZI

Hang in there, boys and girls,

KC

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#127

Fever broke last night.
Spent 5 hours trapped in a bad acid trip where I kept reminding myself that this bar code and/or receipt was good, so I should be able to fall asleep. If that doesn’t make sense, then you are reading it correctly.

This week has been a slow bleed, it seems.
Kind of sucks because I wanted to short from higher…look at ENPH…should have kept that short on. Do I short ULTA now or wait? What about GPI? NVDA is neither too high nor too low…blah.

As usual, the mantra of “don’t buy unless at a 52 wk low” seems to hold true, as PTLO floundering. Turns out with their stock B-to-A dilution, this may be fair though. So even though I have wanted to add, they are still above 52 week low, and so I wait.

Of course, then you have the UPST of the world that say “hold my beer” as they continue to reach new 52 wk lows. Again - either they go out of business or this is a good long-term hold most likely…at these prices anyway.

Watching GLBE, TTD, NET, DDOG, and many others marching lower, but not yet at lows. So doing nothing.

Sad thing is I don’t see this as capitulation.
The 2000-2002 analogy seems to be playing out potentially, which means 2023 may not be much fun either.

I could see Q1 having a nice/final BMR before the final plummet…but who knows.

The DOW is really hanging in there, and given a potential earnings/recession in 2023, that continues to make sense as a short candidate (I think).

Here is the good news (once again “I think”): 2023 may signal the return to individual stock picking, at some point. Because economy/recession may very well come to pass, but the best companies should detach from the indexes a bit over time.

DDOG still needs to come down to earth. As does SNOW.
PANW at 52 wk low and looks really rich still…no idea what people were thinking there. “Security!!! Always up, bro!!!” Puhlease. Go work in IT channel for a few years and realize there is a world of difference between infrastructure stocks and pure cloud SaaS plays.

I have lost maybe close to 1% from recent peak…largely thanks to PTLO and S so far. Blah.

Dreamer

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#128

gained that right back.
down 9.1% ytd.

haven’t done anything this week.
I figure we need an approx 25% up day in market, to move my non-cash holdings up enough to close that gap.

ha.

eff you, 2022.

Dreamer

#129

Found on TWTR:

"$UPST still carries 38.92% short interest at $12.45 per share. It now has a $1 billion market cap. In Oct 2021 it was a $31.8 billion market cap. "

It reminds me of “The Long Way Down” - by Nick Hornby.

#130

so the $PANR play imploded today, due to apparently below-average results from their well/drilling.

Proof I am not an oil guy.
I don’t need the tax loss, so am going to see if it will rebound a bit before calling it a day. May still sell some now. Thinking.

Gave back some of yesterday’s gains with that, but still time left in day. Either way, in that -9 to -10% YTD range still.

Dreamer