It is probably too soon to judge whether the post-ER pops are fading. I looked at ten stocks in my portfolio with May earnings releases. Except for SPG and I think TTD, they all went up. None of the others have faded. UPST is special case because it did give back half of the pop and then the additional 4 billion funding was announced. But OLED, GLBE FOUR, DDOG, BILL and AFRM have continued up, some only slightly, others a lot.
Now, whether they “should have” is another story. The market has been “risk on” for several days. SNOW, PSTG and CRWD earnings coming up.
As to recession, I have been thinking that by the time the recession is announced, the economy will have been in it for 6 months and Mr. Market will be looking at the other side. As long as there isn’t a stagflation grand canyon to cross, the market could start (or continue) a rally. Meet Mr. Bull.
On the other hand, Mr. Dimon says there is no bottom and no other side. I am conflicted. I was up more than 14% YTD on February 2. Then back negative and, at the moment, up 6.6%. Protect the measly 6.6%? I am not sure what NASDQ index we were discussing here. At E*Trade I get COMP.IDX displayed. The 1-year low was about 10,200, several times in October, November and December. The chart has looked better since mid-March and in the last week, order has been restored. Daily price above 20-day average which is above 100-day average which is above 200-day average. Last time we saw that was… November 24, 2021, another day to live in infamy as far as my portfolio is concerned. The teal leaves say that we are headed from current 12,500 up to 13,000. 13,000 was where the last runup ran out of steam in August 2022. If random macro-garbage doesn’t derail, we could get there in about two weeks. Just about debt ceiling day.
Dreamer: “I just don’t know how much longer I have to wait. Days, weeks, months?
Maybe if the market can’t break through 13,000, you will get your chance and we break below 10,000. Or, UPST might go to $45 and DDOG to $120…
Dead hang time,