You’re killing me Dreamer. Two triple spiffy drops for me this year based on my 9.24 2018 purchase price. It was 92 back then, before the 10 for 1 split.
It’s not all bad though. I’ve taken 4x my current value out in profits over last 6 years. Last sold about a third late 2024 between 105 and 130. Easily my biggest $ winner since 2018. Latest crater hurts but still up 180% on current shares.
Good luck this time around!
ESPR is great.. even if only to read through the entertaining posts on X claiming that a sale is imminent. I will say that Im a believer that over the next couple years it has a very good chance of paying off big. Right now my highest allocation is to PGY. As long as the leaders are being transparent (a real concern in the last couple years).. then its kind of a no brainer heading into an environment where we hopefully have a couple interest rate cuts. Substantially undervalued.
I decided to pause a bit on PTLO and TTD. Once I sell more ESPR (if/as it rises) I will look to add back, unless I find something better.
I did add starter sizes in HIT and PRME. And a bit more to ICU. Guess I have the health/bio stock bug now…sheesh.
Dreamer
Dropped HIT
still in PRME
Smaller moonshot allocation in ICU still. Was up 35% now down/flat after collapse in AH last night.
Checking out NEXN as a baby TTD. Growth isnt there but value is.
Dreamer
Sold out of ICU at slight loss. Dont feel like waiting until 2027 and thru likely dilution along the way. It was tony moonshot, so no real impact.
in order:
ESPR
NEXN
PRME
PTLO
Searching for others, but as usual i tend to like a good value vs chasing FOMO.
Still sitting around ATH.
Dreamer
Cut my PRME in half, taking 60% gains.
Evenly invested now in:
PRME
NEXN
PTLO
SG
I like SG as a comparable to PTLO in size, yet a very healthy different take on menu. I think both do well next 5 years from these beaten down levels. Could go lower first.
Dreamer
Switched out of NEXN and SG for USAC and cash.
probably more USAC next week to average in.
AI/dc expansion needs energy = nat gas tailwinds.
Usac is picks and shovels tied to volume, not nat gas prices.
It was a short play for me post covid in 2020 as mammoth beatdown and subsequent bounceback.
Huge divvy.
If economy suffers but AI spend continues, may be safe place for some divvy money. Any share appreciation a bonus.
Just a smaller allocation.
A “better than cash” play.
I remember when i called those BTCs and had to stop because all the crypto gambling degens would misunderstand my meaning.
Esperion moving along. Story keeps strengthening, minus the recent dilution.
Hopeful that 2026 is the year it climbs towards $4-8 or buyout in $9-12 range.
PRME bounced back today a bit.
PTLO dying or just undervalued? CMG earnings spooking restaurant market.
And i agree: thx to inflation since 2020, non-wealthy really getting frugal due to food, auto, housing, tuition, insurance…everything up much more than wage growth.
All the folks dependent on govt directly, or indirectly thx to ngo scams, all feeling the heat. Meanwhile, corp america has a case of layoff fever. Be careful out there.
And enjoy Halloween weekend!
Dreamer
Ps…like NEXN and SG to a lesser extent (it is also a robotics play). But had to raise cash to USAC somewhere.
Esperion ER tomorrow.
USAC reported this am:
PTLO
Reported yesterday
Glad i got out of SG…crushed today and sold their robotics biz. So their biz model is akin to “buy an expensive salad”.
TTD was down to $39 in AH but bounced back. Either way, makes me think sidestepping out of NEXN for now was good. Will still check out their ER.
ESPR took a hit but fundamentally i see no change or issues…just market games on the stock price. Not low enough to add more so just sitting on my hands. May post more on it tomorrow.
USAC popped and doing well. Kind of took off before i could add more. Dont feel like chasing in this market so will see if it comes back before adding.
Dreamer
Moving more to cash to rethink this market. Trying not to go down a macro rabbit hole.
reduced PRME and PTLO to thimble sizes.
Added to USAC
Held course of ESPR
lot of good companies just not a ton a good value, imo, at moment.
Enjoy weekend all!
Dreamer
a bit behind in updates, but it is ESPR, USAC, and cash at moment. I do have a tiny 1% RADX moonshot.
Trimmed ESPR more today. Have trimmed at 2.6, 3, and now 3.6.
Basically that was all the excess shares I bought during the abyss months of march-june. So now back to original # of shares I started year with, but have more cash, port is bigger, and at ATH. Got to love it when a plan comes together.
Happy Thanksgiving all,
Dreamer
You’re crushing it. I sold 10% of my ESPR just now at 3.96. It had gotten over 30% position and just for fun, i looked at previous stocks that I let get too high and what happened. The future always looks bright at ATH.
UPST 41.7% (currently 89.5% off ATH, 25% loss on sold shares, 66% down on what is still a 6% position)
AYX 41.7% (huge drop, finally taken private. I lost a lot of paper gains but got out with net 84% gain)
TDOC 20.2% (massive drop, I lost a lot of paper gains but got out with net 50% gain)
TTD 19.5% (multiple huge drops, 128% gain on shares sold, still holding 4% with $19 cost basis. I like to look at my net cost on remaining shares just for fun - it’s negative $171/sh). My all-time best dreamer rec.
MDB 17.3% (multiple huge drops, currently still 35% of ATH, 70% gain on sold shares, still holding 8% position with $300 cost basis)
I also have a pretty big position in my own company stock that should be in the 20%+ size but has been crushed by trump tariffs and some business mis-steps. But mostly the tariffs.
TTD at June 2020 levels at $37 now.
How low can it go and when is it a screaming buy, even just for a bounce trade?
I sold at split adjusted $27.50 in Jan 2020.
Dreamer
sold half my RADX for a nice big gain. holding rest for a bit.
Cash up to 20%
Still near my ATHs…fluctuating daily thx to ESPR.
TTD teasing the upper $35’s! Can it make it to $29? I probably buy then, if not sooner, just for a bounce trade.
USAC still in the mix, but haven’t added more. I am waiting until January before selling more other stuff in my taxable account, to kick the taxable gains down the road another year.
So maybe will have some Jan rebalancing…will see.
Think the bubble always lasts longer than you think it will, so maybe 2026 is more of the same? Dunno. Trying not to think about macro too much, but not a ton of values out there in stocks at the moment.
Happy Holidays!
Dreamer
Geez…i take a week off and folks get all ornery w each other.
I finished 2025 up 65%. Off my ATH by about 10% or so, but happy with the progress made and that I focused back on ind stocks vs letting macro cloud my every decision.
I have been wrong on macro since 2022 lows, so about 3.5 years now. Eventually I “will be right” but stopped clocks and all that.
Entering into 2026 with cash around 30%, and stocks in order of allocation:
ESPR
USAC
RADX (smaller)
watchlist; TTD, PRME, TSLA (robotics/FDS plays, but too expensive at moment to chase), SPG (if ever drops again due to economy/recession - also not chasing), PTLO. Challenge is I like growth + value and/or a turnaround story and I just don’t see a ton out there as market has been running hot for a while.
Could use a good market pullback to help make new watchlist stocks stand out a bit. Appreciate others on the board that mention ideas. I prefer to stay away from piling on biotech.
Energy may be a big focus for 2026…dunno. Part of why I like USAC so much.
I do small trades in/out on a larger watchlist. Too busy or too lazy to document all this. Never really got into options..very rarely were they profitable for me.
Ones that got away:
ONDS - holy schmoley batman…that’s just crazy.
Looking forward to a good 2026. At some point, I will have 3 kids in college this year. I already feel poorer. Proud, but poorer.
Dreamer
Since you’re looking at energy plays, thoughts on ELVA? I want to like it, but struggle to build the courage to pull the trigger.
Think i have seen that name on Saul forums?
Looks like a 30%+ grower but perhaps easy gains been made last 18 months. Feels a bit FOMO for my tastes.
Of course, every Saul like stock lasts longer and runs higher than it “should” before eventually deflating into more realistic expectations. (Looking at you, IOT)
Lithium battery tech not an area i am current on. I will say at $400m, this is not a big mkt cap yet, so it is interesting and will try and check out further.
Does Tesla buy up lithium battery companies like Cisco has gobbled up networking or security firms over the years? If not, why not?
I am also a bit less excited about hardware/manufacturing vs software. Hardware always seems to get commoditized eventually.
Dreamer
Adding my new “better than cash” basket this morning and today.
Already chasing, which isnt preferred, but these are all 1% type allocations, and i will learn more about each over time and, i am sure, will undergo consolidation as i like certain companies more than others.
In premarket bought:
Rekr, smr, oklo, nne, and tln
So have those 5 plus
Espr
Usac
Radx
Prme
Feel good about this year at moment…hopefully it is justified in Dec!
Dreamer
