Dreamer Corp - Port Update

It has been a busy couple of days. Monday I bought a smidgeon of DDOG, CRWD and UPST (at $18.40). Then Tuesday, backed up the pickup truck and loaded up UPST plus a sprinkling of AFRM and VERI. Wednesday I got back into ZS and FOUR and added to SNOW, PSTG and DDOG. And added a small load of VERI, which had what I think is a good ER but it was down as much as 38%. Bought most of it at $5.05 and it closed at $5.38 for a modest gain.

Up more than 17% on UPST which is 9.4% of port, along with 6.8% CRWD and 6% of VERI. VERI is sort of an AI version of AYX, that is, the citizen AI scientist.

- Q3 Revenue Up 64% Year Over Year Driven By 131% Increase in Software Products & Services and 20% Increase in Managed Services -
- Q3 Ending Software Customers Up 43% on a Pro Forma Basis Year over Year -
- Record Q3 New Bookings of $16.5 Million, Up 393% Year over Year -

Veritone, Inc. is a provider of artificial intelligence (AI) computing solutions and services. The Company’s AI operating system, aiWARE, uses machine learning algorithms or AI models, together with a suite of applications, to reveal valuable insights from amounts of structured and unstructured data. Its aiWARE platform offers capabilities that mimic human cognitive functions, such as perception, prediction and problem solving, enabling users to transform unstructured data into structured data, and analyze and optimize data to drive business processes and insights.

60% cash.

DW’s IRA account opened at Interactive Brokers so reduced number of holdings and almost ready to fund it via transfer. Now to decide whether to transfer the other accounts. Just how disappointed am I with E*Trade? I suppose my Platinum status there is about as meaningful as my MF level 2 badge, but it certainly was not enough for them to accommodate us–even though we have a joint account there already. A good reason to move, or do I need anger management counseling?

KC

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I sold it all. Again.

C’mon…admit it…you knew that was coming.
NET up 22% or something stupid.
S and MNDY haven’t even reported yet.
UPST giving me an early xmas miracle and allowing me to exit after that dumpster fire of an ER when my cost basis was about $20?
TTD up waaaaaaay too much too quick.

Paused a bit at DDOG, but once it started broaching the $60s, I think it makes it easier to revisit that area later.

Now down just -10.8% YTD.

Live to fight another day, in this crappy 2022.

Dreamer

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so far UPST is just a couple cents higher than where I sold it…everything else is lower.

Except AMZN.

Tomorrow probably key to understanding if I sold too soon or not.

Can’t complain on taking gains.

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I sold 90% of the UPST that I bought… was it yesterday? Day before? … uhm, after hours on the 8th. Two days with little or no power created a time warp. Danged geckos in the electricity meter… paid the ultimate price so I should complain about the inconvenience??? Well, yes. 3/4 inch of gecko poop inside the enclosure. Gecko egg shells, too. The critters were hatched there Wonder if they had insurance???

Anyway, 49-50% gain on no company specific news led me to take the profit. Sold the AFRM, too, for 25% profit. The VERI I still have because it is so thinly traded, I can’t get rid of it pre-market.

KC

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As a side note, remember that there was significant UPST shares shorted. Around 25 million on 10/31. Volume on 8th, 9th, 10th, was 40 million shares. Enough to absorb any short squeeze or did I sell too soon. ???

KC wonders

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Trade Alert!

I am going to go long for a few days…I think until Powell speaks on 30th or whenever that is.

Went long SPY for about 30% allocation.
70% in cash.

If I am wrong it isn’t too deadly and upside limited too, but can make a few scraps back if we see a good BMR spike next few days.

Then I will re-assess on what I want to do thru EOY and/or if I feel like playing a longer-term short, depending if we see a notable BMR spike up from here.

Dreamer

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Dreamer,

So many of us reduced to trading “for a few days”. I think we both want to get back to havin a portfolio of stocks held “forever” for a reason–maybe trading around the edges. Jeez, Dreamer, a one-week horizon. But, who am I to be negative. I went back to the options desk. Sold puts and calls on CRWD and calls on Doximity (DOCS for the uninitiated). Received the equiv of a month’s social security. Maybe go shopping for a new laptop or an (cheap) exercise bike. Expire Friday (the options, that is, not the laptop and hopefully not me).

71% cash. Watching OKE, SPG and UPST coming back down SLOWLY. Want SPG below $110 down to $100, UPST at $16. In other words, I’m hoping you take a bath on your SPY :).

Dang! Gotta chase chickens off my lawn again. It’s bermuda grass fer cryin’ out loud, go find some tasty weeds and bugs and drop yer presents elsewhere! Chicken tinola.

E I E I O,

KC

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This might be better suited for the Asking for a Friend Thread–maybe I will edit and double post. But, you just laid 30% on the random walk of Mr. Market up until noonish on the 30th, avoiding turmoil that Mr. Powell might cause.

Hmm, what else will happen before then:

22nd, Kansas City Fed President gonna speak. She is considered an interest rate hawk but on the 10th she said “I continue to see several advantages for a steady and deliberate approach to raising the policy rate,” But maybe she clarifies and says “for as long as the eye can see, until Hell freezes over if necessary.”

Wednesday, the 23rd while you are all preparing turkey, garlic-laced mashed potatoes, stuffing-both dry and gooey (certainly NOT Stovetop), cheesy green beans and mushrooms… there are 10 bits of economic news including:

durable and core capital goods orders,
initial and continuing jobless claims,
US manufacturing and service PMI
UMich consumer confidence and 5 yr inflation expectations,
New home sales,
and… FOMC minutes.

The following week, as the fridg contents are being cycled through the microwave, we have:

Interview with St. Louis Fed President Bullard,
Shiller and FHFA home price indexes,
Consumer confidence,

I’m getting typing fatigue here, but there are 10 more reports on Wednesday before Powell’s remarks, including

ADP employment
Chicago PMI
Job Openings…

But, move on, folks, nothing here to see.

All said, and hopefully received in, good humor.

KC

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And this from the 17th

(Just chastised again to consider one longer post rather than a series. Sorry, I’m a left-handed, stream-of-consciousness, disorganized, old coot subject to unsolicited “Oh yeah, what about” thoughts. ) No three posts in a row, KC.

Anyway, a 7% rate in our future?

I think I’m not going to play with the options next week.

KC

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This is why I fully expect the lows are not in.
But I don’t make the rules, and the macro gods are claiming due to position of the moon and liquidity and the inherent dangers of crossing the streams, that SPY might pop for a bit, before ultimately nosediving once more.

One day does not a thesis make, but so far so good.
I don’t have the stomach to hold for long. Will need this to be about a 3.3% total gain or so in order to move actual port 1%. Could we get to 4300 S&P? Sure. But not sure I have the constitution to hold that long.

Either way, the higher we go (if we go at all) the more likely I think about a general long-term short of index, and may cherry-pick a stock or two that I short along the way. Will see. Always much more comfortable going long after extreme drops.

I should have shorted Jan 2022, but even though I did sell out in Nov/Dec 2021 (yay!) I was still so conditioned for the momentum trader bros to drive valuations to absurd levels, that I didn’t trust enough to short the market at the time. Woulda coulda shoulda.

I don’t know what the final low of this bear market will be, but 2800 keeps popping up in my head and via a couple of the macro gurus. Which probably means it goes lower to 2500-ish, but that could just be an intraday or 1-day puke and hard to time absolute bottom.

Just thinking 3000 means another 25% drop from around S&P 4000.
I probably start layering in longs the whole way down, as these are all ultimately just guesses.

When you see certain things like UPST collapsing to 14 or PTLO at 14/15, I probably start buying regardless of how far away we are from index bottom. It all just depends and every stock entry price is a bit different.

TTD at $27.5 allows me the ego back-pat of buying back right where I sold my larger position in Jan 2020 after a great run. But I also sold back then thinking it was overbought. Been 2 years of growth since, but what is the correct number then? Dunno. I could buy at $28 thinking I am a stud and watch it go another 20% lower.

So give me a short little SPY spike upwards, bag a few more nickels, and then I throw the Doctor Doom outfit back on.

Dreamer

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futures don’t look great, but holding onto my SPY long, probably thru tomorrow, in case we get the usual “turnaround Tuesday”. Probably closing it after that either way.

Only up 2% on the trade at moment, so a couple nickels but nothing crazy.

I won’t necessarily immediately short afterwards…not sure.

Dreamer

up less than 1% on my trade now…still plan on holding thru tomorrow, but once/if I go slightly negative, I will close trade.

market continuing to drag down today, so I sold the trade for very minor gain.

no harm, no foul.
Probably still pops for Turnaround Tuesday, but oh well.

Bought some S…about 1.5% allocation.
Near 52 wk low (plus)
CRWD/ZS ERs incoming (possibly plus or minus catalyst)
S ER is next week (possibly plus or minus catalyst)
Smaller mkt cap in key security market (under $4.5b at moment).

I think the mkt cap gives it a floor…of course I don’t know how much lower that floor could be. But this is the week to find out, with all the security-related ERs.

Rest all in cash.

Dreamer

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added just a bit more…let’s see how post-ER sentiment is from CRWD/ZS results.

Dreamer

bought a bit more S.
Let’s see if Powell speech tanks market further or not later.

No one asked, but CRWD still a bloated market cap, imo. Sure, might pop from this post-ER beatdown eventually, but I would rather bet on stock appreciation from a sub-$4b mkt cap than a $30b mkt cap.

Dreamer

Bought 2% in spec/oil play. I can’t use UK ticker $PANR, so using OTC $PTHRF.
Some folks I follow have been on this for a while.
There are some views that we are being lulled into complacency on sinking oil prices lately, but with russian sanctions, US SPR ending, alleged China “reopening” and general nature of market to mess with people, oil may make another surge. While they aren’t tied to oil prices, the need to increase supply, if their ongoing initiatives in northern Alaska pan out, would/could lead to a short squeeze eventually.

Smaller allocation, and I know I keep saying this, but probably holding out longer-term here. I see this type of investment as unaffected and untethered from a general market collapse. So can both look to short market and be long opportunistically here and with certain growth names like S that I think are too close to their floor or below a previous target price I had penciled in for them.

Trying to get more invested…shorts, longs, non-growth…doesn’t matter. As long as I buy into the “why” and have an exit strategy.

Dreamer

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15% short of SPY, engaged.
Depending on tomorrow, more to follow maybe.

Dreamer

Play book for the week. CNN Fear and Greed Index is flashing caution. What the…? Well, it now is barely in the extreme greed zone. Junk bond demand went from extreme fear to extreme greed from Friday to Monday. They must have an intern on duty. The spread is 2% which is high–which their description says is fear or extreme fear. Market is wanting a lower price for the junk or a higher spread because of fear these companies might default. Anyway, that brand of fear is not indicative of greed for stocks. That was going to be my argument, that the junk bond demand ought to be ignored which makes extreme greed for the overall index a better read.

I want to get more invested, too, but later when the market is in fear.

I started a thread over on New Paradigm Investing about the BMW method of mechanical investing or at least analysis and screening for possible buying opportunities. I have 8 stocks to look at. I have just the broadest strokes of D D at this point. If anyone is interested we could dig into these for cigar butts.

I might return to the well for another week of puts and calls on CRWD. Otherwise, sit on my hands a wait for opportunity.

Factory orders today. Unit labor costs Wednesday. Jobless claims Thursday. Producer price index Friday. Don’t see any Fed speak scheduled. Any earnings this week?

KC

SentinelOne and i think mdb.