SPG. Nice, boring ER. Raised dividend by about 8%. EPS up about 7%. Dreamer (I assume) and I are somewhat lamenting our inaction around August when it was trading at $105-ish. $138 now. Actually, I did buy in May, August and October. I trade too much, particularly for a core holding. All my current shares were purchased in 2023.except for some bought last week. And then I am reinvesting dividends so I have 10 buys in all, some up 30% and 14.6% up in total.
Anyway, this is a kind of stock I “should” own. Probably. My current year RMD is 5.65% and current dividend is 5.6%. If they can continue raising the dividend by “inflation plus” then I am at least treading water. P/E is 22 with 10-year 4%-ish (and bouncing around), so not a great bargain here.
VFC (clothing retailer) reports AMC Tuesday, so another consumer pulse check.
P.S., I bought the dip Monday. ENVX, ZS and META. Also added a new stock, CAVA. (I’ll see your PTLO, and raise you 3 CAVA). CAVA is, I believe, the fastest growing publicly traded restaurant chain.
KC, who hit 124 pulse rate on the HIIT walking, and is killing it on the HIIT pushups.
There is enough there to make one cautiousk. The writer is a short seller and general negative whiner as far as I can tell. But those NYC restaurant grades seem genuine. I remember the emotions on the CMG threads during those problems. Those of us who sold were considered traitors to the cause and clueless abbetors of Evil when selling was a no-brainer. There was a time to buy back. DW has 3.5% of CMG in her IRA, up 327%-though I don’t remember when she bought.
I was trying to do a PTLO vs. CAVA comparison but that might be above my pay grade, made more difficult by there relatively recent IPO’s.
The AH moves on some of these names that have reported is insane. Seeing up 25% to down 4% moves in BILL. Huge move up in NET, on decent not great earnings. PINS was down 25% and now only down 9%.
This has so far been a crazy earnings season. I’ve been a bull since mid 2022, and for the first time I’m feeling like it’s time to protect some gains. I did a lot of selling and trimming at the close and now up to 34% cash. Haven’t been that high since the fall of 2021. We need a correction.
Look at the Fear and Greed Index, when it get above 75, we end up correcting. We are here once again. I’m not a bear, or a trader, I don’t go in and out of the market, but corrections are part of the market, they need to happen, and we really really are due for one, and for markets to move higher, it’s much healthier to back and fill.
The earnings and AH action in the last two weeks feels like a top to me, so I’m going to be more cautious until we do correct.
I am losing some confidence in the sanity of the market as it stands today. Lots of intraday trading / 0DTE / AH action that is pushing stocks around. Anything with the word AI adjacent to it is being FOMOed into…makes me quite nervous. We have seen this movie play out before.
This does not seem healthy at all. Sure markets can go higher for longer, but with this week’s price action…I doubt it.
Institutions do not buy like this. It seems to be retail getting ahead of their skis.
After a great 2023, I started off the year setting my expectations for 2024 as if I could do 12 to 15% for the year, I’d be very content with that. Here we are in early Feb and I’m just under that 12% target. I came into this week with 21% cash, this morning with 26% cash and at the close now up to 34%. Even with all this cash today I was still up 1% on the day, and ahead of the market. So I’m not too worried keeping up with the marktet if it just keeps climbing, but I had to respect that F&G reading, as it’s always been something I’ve watched, and it’s helped me get through the markets in the past.
These moves very recently in many names reporting are kind of bonkers. Glad to be in a lot of them, but just feels like it’s time to give the ball over and see how the defense is doing for a series or two. Certainly not all out, but definitely not all in.
I’ll stick my oar in the water here. The market is ailing. Fundamentals suck and psychology not stable. The market mirrors what is happening around the world. That said, we also have AI and algo’s that act instantaneously based on “trigger words or phrases” and pump money in or out of a stock or stocks. This is multiplied in after hours trading. And then the retail idiots, among whom I place my tinfoil hat attired self, who act FOMO or “bargain” hunting and amplify the insanity. I need to craft a metric to measure this. I have one, actually, but it is more subjective than formulated. Look at the winners from the 7th among the dogs and cats and remnants of odd positions I hold/held:
When I see these, I want to take profits or at least trade the pop if they are losers. Problem is, market closes at 4 a.m. here and by the time I see the moves we are after hours and the bid/ask spread on some of these is just excessive. Plus there is the greed factor…
What was also interesting to me is the non-action on the Magnificent 7.
I know, that is only 6 but I sold my TSLA. Let’s see, I have 24% on the sidelines in either cash, treasury ETF’s or other “maybe better than cash” ETF vehicles. And in case Dreamer is lurking (and I know he is…) in the last four sessions CAVA is up 8% versus a mere 3.7% for PTLO. That has helped my IRA to achieve one nostril above the waterline YTD.