Earnings Releases

I’m here to express my appreciation for both of your perspectives. I always believe that things will never be as good or as bad as we anticipate.

In fact, I’ve been investing in what I believe are your preferred stocks, especially NVDA when it dipped below $110. It was a golden opportunity to invest in a fantastic company led by a hardworking and innovative CEO.

I also value ESPR, which recently had some seemingly good news that hasn’t yet been rewarded. I have a fondness for bargains.

My understanding of NVDA is deeper because of my past experience managing data centers for a large investment bank. I believe Nvidia is in the early years of a data center upgrade cycle. The stock price will likely surge to unrealistic levels and eventually crash, but the timing is uncertain.

I anticipate the market will rise until September or October, then rally again after the election, regardless of the outcome. This is especially likely if we end up with a split government where no single party controls the House, Senate, and Presidency, as this would prevent the passage of extreme measures. I’ll probably raise some cash by the end of the month as the rate cut will have already be priced in by that point.

I do believe that whoever becomes president could potentially face a severe recession at some point. It all depends on how long the market can be artificially inflated.

The only uncertainty for me is whether AI can provide any significant productivity gains to stave off a recession. I’m skeptical, but I believe that in the long term, AI will prove its worth.

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Amazing that every thread needs to be highjacked by someone w perfect market timing.

Couple weeks back, as market slumps, they tell us they are already happy w year and moving to cash etc

Then on day stocks pop, you find they perfectly timed all the dips to buy.

Miraculous! What an uncanny ability folks on the internet have to tell you of prescient moves they made after the fact! Amazing, indeed!

Market down at moment. Likely they went max short at open…

Dreamer

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Dreamer, you know how it goes. Some people only post their greatest hits.

I could post that I sold MongoDB at 506 in February and you guys might be impressed considering it topped at 509 and has been in the 200s recently. It wouldn’t be lying but the full story is I still have the other 75%.

I was lucky to get out of FUBO with a small gain before it completely broke down and is now down about 95%. I mention FUBO because a recall a certain someone calling it a “hold forever” stock, then when it trades at a buck a share, crickets. To be fair, he was just trying his best.

I still hold some ROKU, lots of mistakes, me. Not many winners in my portfolio from Beth Kindig & the chart guy.

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Angry dreams are nightmares, no? Full of misinformation as well.

What I said was we have most likely seen the highs for the year. That I had a sizable cash position (21%) to put to work along the way on weakness.
I also had a large TLT position, which last week I swapped out for TMF. Anyone can look at a chart and see what a no brainer bonds are right now, so TMF is now my largest position.

Is today ugly? Yep. No surprise here. I’m down 1.4% right now. Only helped by TMF, META and TMDX. Nibbled on some AMD just now, which is my smallest position, which I started last Friday.

Big earnings after the bell. Excited to see the results. Looking forward either way to a positive reaction or a negative one. I have no problems with corrections or sell offs. I only see opportunities either way.

Better than living in that constant fearful half empty place.

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Yeah…like I sold MELI at ATH back in Jan 2021, but, like, totally bought it all back in June 2022, and totally been riding that new cost basis since. (Wink wink)

And hey, what could possibly go wrong buying MSFT at $3T mkt cap in a bubbly market? I mean, I know it didnt return to the 2000 bubbly high for over 15 years, but that will NEVER happen again.

Especially no in an environment of skyrocketing national debt and interest payments on that debt.

MSFT shareholders just didnt understand “glass half full” during that 15 year period.

Anyways…Apple grew 5% y/y…first growth in about 4 years! Amazon still grew!

Silly market…just be positive!!

Dreamer

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Buckle up. Earnings this week:

Notable Companies Reporting Earnings This Week:

  • Monday (8/5):
    • CSX Corporation $CSX, Palantir $PLTR, Reality Income $O, Simon Property $SPG
  • Tuesday (8/6):
    • Amgen $AMGN, Caterpillar $CAT, Uber $UBER, Airbnb $ABNB, Super Micro Computer $SMCI, Rivian $RIVN, Celsius $CELH, Reddit $RDDT
  • Wednesday (8/7):
    • Novo Nordisk $NVO, Walt Disney $DIS, CVS $CVS, Shopify $SHOP, Monster Beverage $MNST, Robinhood $HOOD, Duolingo $DUOL
  • Thursday (8/8):
    • Eli Lilly $LLY, The Trade Desk $TTD, Datadog $DDOG
  • Friday (8/9):
    • Evergy $EVRG
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SPG reported, raised divvy again. Really should have jumped on that 2022 dip. Still think it sinks in a recession, but we will see.

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/19807827-simon-reports-second-quarter-2024-results-increases-full-year-2024-guidance-and-raises?source=section%253Amain_content%257Cbutton%253Abody_link%257Cfirst_level_url%253Anews#hasComeFromMpArticle=false

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welp…looks like ESPR is more or less as expected and just kicking can down road for Q3 ER in Nov. Was hoping to be a bit more surprised on upside. Can only do so much with a 150-person sales force. Intent is still to partner/sell the US market off, imo. Hopefully that is being negotiated behind the scenes as we speak. Just no idea when it actually happens (1 week, 1 month, Dec, 2025?).

On the Saul stock front, wondering ELF and CELH and maybe SMCI have jumped the shark yet? IOT may not be far behind. AXON going strong but unclear how much larger they can get?

NVDA earnings still to come, and they will be breath-taking again, I am sure. Question is if we are at peak AI hype/investment as there is a real/perceived lack of ROI so far. If you constantly have to invest multi-billions yet get no ROI, do you continue to do it forever because you “have to”? I question that. At some point, improvements in data processing/latency and compression (Silicon Valley tv series, anyone!) may allow companies to use their current GPU horsepower for a while longer than expected.

I don’t use Chat-GPT. I wonder if that novelty has worn off. Until Siri/Alexa/Google start speaking to me like Jarvis from my phone, I am not seeing the consumer killer app (yet). On business front, I think wondrous things could/should be done on excel/ppt front…just doesn’t seem to be there yet and I get the sneaking suspicion that this ALL gets commoditized faster than we realize.

Calculators came along. Then PCs. Then Smartphones. It is all somewhat expected now. It is table stakes. Why AI any different? So who wins? Probably mainly the big existing Tech and some as-of-yet-unknown cool company.

But just adding “AI” to everything isn’t cutting it.

First rate cut causes a short-lived (final?) blowoff rally/top, and then more cuts signal economic pain and we get a (final?) capitulation ala 2022 bottoms? Dunno. Think something like that. That is where I want to swoop in.

Would be nice if Esperion got sold and gave me a bit of a windfall to parlay into beaten down recession-impacted stocks I like longer-term. Will see how it all plays out.

Dreamer

ps…SPG certainly not cooperating with the plan, in the meantime.

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