EPAM, which just reported, was up 29%, which is very good, considering that a lot of their employees were in a war zone in the Ukraine… (It will probably pull back a little after earnings, in my opinion).
Well, I was wrong. EPAM is up about 4% more as I write.Just shows that short term movements can’t be predicted.
Saul
Average gain in earnings (removing my two biggest outliers (CRTO and XPO) as they would unrealistically raise the average, and one smallest (WAB), to balance) = 64.1%
Saul,
It might be more useful to calculate the weighted average based on the position size of each holding.
Chris
It might be more useful to calculate the weighted average based on the position size of each holding.
Too much work for me Chris as I don’t really use that number for anything. It’s just for fun.
Saul
Too much work for me Chris as I don’t really use that number for anything. It’s just for fun.
It’s not as much work as you may think. The reason that I suggested that it might be useful is the following. You will end up with a weighted averaged adjusted EPS growth rate. To get this all you need to do is multiply each company’s EPS growth rate which you already have. Then multiply that by you % allocation which you also already have. The sum these products. This number is not useful on its own but you can compare it to the weighted average P/E. This will give you a snapshot of the growth rate and P/E for your portfolio which you can track over time. This gives you an idea of how expensive your portfolio is relative to the EPS growth. Ultimately you are picking stocks based on EPS growth versus P/E (i.e. it’s you primary criterion when choosing to invest in a stock). Having a gauge of how expensive your portfolio is over time might be interesting…and might also be fun.
Chris
Morningstar’s portfolio tracker will do this for you if you’re tracking your portfolio on their site which is free.
Chad
so far, so good:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/122OtxRVIJelV1DXqbqbN…
Your top dogs are carrying their weight,
It has been a pleasure to watch your work in progress…
Given the terrific increase in the growth of the various company’s earnings…As a comparison … how did the earnings increase compare to an increase in the market value of the company’s stock?
Here are my fourteen stocks that have reported so far, with their earnings for the fourth quarter this year and last, and the percent increase. PSIX, which reported last night, was up 100%%, which is incredibly good, considering that oil prices are down.
I had them arranged by when they reported, but here they are by percent increase:
WAB ----- 95/79 = 20.3%
EPAM ---- 62/48 = 29.2%
CELG – 101/75.5 = 33.8%
BOFI –-- 126/91 = 38.5%
POL - - - 36/26 = 38.5%
INBK – - 32/19 = 68.4%
SYNA –-- 146/86 = 69.8%
FB - ---- 54/31 = 74.2%
SWKS –-- 126/67 = 88.1%
AMAVF - 15.0/7.6 = 97.4%
PSIX ---- 48/24 = 100.0%
SKX ----- 57/28 = 103.6%
CRTO ---- 37/13 = 184.6%
XPO ----- ??/?? = >200%
Average gain in earnings = 72.8%
I had been removing outliers, but now that I had more data points I included all of them except XPO. I had thought to find some metric I could use for XPO, but all of them (Gross revenue, Net Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, etc) were all up over 200%, and Adj EPS was still negative, so I just didn’t include XPO.
This has really been an amazing quarter quarter!!! Almost finished. Just waiting for AIOCF.
Saul
Your top dogs are carrying their weight, It has been a pleasure to watch your work in progress…
Thanks Darrell, that’s a really really interesting table. As I figure your totals, my top four are up about 17.65%, which is a little better than my overall totals, so they are pulling their weight.
Best,
Saul
I now have all 15 stocks reported, with the addition of AIOCF last evening which reported earnings up 31.5% (less than revenue, which was up 42%, but they are spending on gaining market share).
Here they are arranged by percent increase. As you remember, what you see is adjusted earnings for this quarter and last and the percent increase.
WAB ----- 95/79 = 20.3%
EPAM ---- 62/48 = 29.2%
AIOCF ----
CELG – 101/75.5 = 33.8%
BOFI –-- 126/91 = 38.5%
POL - - - 36/26 = 38.5%
INBK – - 32/19 = 68.4%
SYNA –-- 146/86 = 69.8%
FB - ---- 54/31 = 74.2%
SWKS –-- 126/67 = 88.1%
AMAVF - 15.0/7.6 = 97.4%
PSIX ---- 48/24 = 100.0%
SKX ----- 57/28 = 103.6%
CRTO ---- 37/13 = 184.6%
XPO ----- ??/?? = >200%
Average gain in earnings = 69.85%. That’s really pretty amazing when you think about it!
I had been removing outliers, but now that I had more data points I included all of them except XPO. I had thought to find some metric I could use for XPO, but all of them (Gross revenue, Net Revenue, Adjusted EBITDA, etc) were all up over 200%, and Adj EPS was still negative, so I just didn’t include XPO.
This has really been an astounding quarter!!! I doubt we’ll see four like this.
Saul
Sorry:
WAB ----- 95/79 = 20.3%
EPAM ---- 62/48 = 29.2%
AIOCF ---- 25/19 = 31.5%
CELG – 101/75.5 = 33.8%
BOFI –-- 126/91 = 38.5%
POL - - - 36/26 = 38.5%
INBK – - 32/19 = 68.4%
SYNA –-- 146/86 = 69.8%
FB - ---- 54/31 = 74.2%
SWKS –-- 126/67 = 88.1%
AMAVF - 15.0/7.6 = 97.4%
PSIX ---- 48/24 = 100.0%
SKX ----- 57/28 = 103.6%
CRTO ---- 37/13 = 184.6%
XPO ----- ??/?? = >200%
I now have all 15 stocks reported, with the addition of AIOCF last evening which reported earnings up 31.5% (less than revenue, which was up 42%, but they are spending on gaining market share).
Saul,
For SKX you added back forex loss. Why did you not subtract forex gain from AIOCF?
Chris
Hi Chris, You ask why I didn’t subtract the forex gain from AIOCF? Maybe you didn’t notice, but they state very plainly in the press release that they already removed it when they gave us the adjusted earnings. That’s what adjusted earnings are, and why I use them.
Saul
The term “Adjusted Earnings” and “Adjusted Earnings Per Share” refers to net earnings and earnings per share, respectively, before share-based payments, foreign exchange gain or loss, business acquisition-related costs, non-recurring legal costs, amortization of acquired intangibles and related tax effects.
Thanks Saul. I didn’t notice. I’ll have a closer look at their earnings result in a few days.
Saul et al
AIOCF down almost 14%. Any idea why?
Thanks,
Best
Andy
not Saul but see post 6451
The corporate goal has to be to make money eventually, increasing sales won’t be enough if you lose money on each item sold.I own some AIOCF but don’t see much of a moat. Or any real reason why a Canadian company can compete in manufacturing costs, so the profit will have to come from the integration and software side.
I am in the stock mostly because I think the sector and underlying business has great growth potential . That is not enough reason to have a big investment in AIOCF. It is not a high conviction stock for me. But I did add a bit this AM, based on the principle that the earnings report did not alter the underlying thesis. But if AOICF doesn’t start making progress towards earnings soon I will sell.
But if AOICF doesn’t start making progress towards earnings soon…
Hi Mauser, Are you and I looking at the same stock? Their earnings for the full year 2014 were 80 cents, up 33.3% from 60 cents in 2013. And that was up from 22 cents in 2012! Their earnings in the Dec quarter were 25 cents, up 31.5% from from 19 cents, which in turn was up from 8 cents in 2012. What in the world are you talking about when you say that?
Saul
You are right Saul, I don’t know what I was thinking. (my mind was elsewhere)
Strike the whole post
Whatever, the market wasn’t excited about the earnings report/
The corporate goal has to be to make money eventually, increasing sales won’t be enough if you lose money on each item sold.I own some AIOCF but don’t see much of a moat.
Mauser do you know of any other company that has an end to end solution? All the way from cameras to analytics?
Andy
I own some AIOCF but don’t see much of a moat.
That fat portfolio of patents and patent applications would be considered a rather wide moat by most investors. Tech companies don’t build these portfolios just for giggles. They do so in order to protect their intellectual property (IP). I worked at Boeing for 30 years. They had a large dedicated staff whose entire mission was the management of Boeing’s IP. Boeing has a significant revenue stream generated from IP licensing agreements (many of Boeing’s patents have noting to do with aircraft and flight, Boeshield T-9 for example is a commercially available anti-corrosive/lubricant coating).
Fact is that Aviglon has patents covering just about everything from soup to nuts in the video security arena. Of course, it’s possible for other companies to provide similar functionality with different technology, but that requires a lot of R&D and they still run the risk of patent infringement. In case you haven’t noticed, patent cases are a pretty active area of corporate litigation these days.
I’m long AIOCF and plan to get longer. They are rapidly expanding their product offerings from surveillance and forensic analysis to preventive products and new functions such as access control. As I see it, Aviglion is covering the waterfront, while their competitors offer niche products.