ELF: glow up or concealer?

e.l.f. reported Q4 FY2025 net sales of $332.6 million, up 4% YOY. Earnings per share OF $0.78, beating expectations of $0.72. Acquiring Rhode, Hailey Beiber’s brand for 1B, 200M of which is new issue stock. They still are not providing guidance for FY2026 because of uncertainty due to tariffs.

Stock up 25% at this time.

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I am trying to decide to sell some of the ELF I bought in my sister’s account at $150. It feels awful when you lose someone else’s money. ELF was suppose to be a long term hold. The last 5 months it has been a yoyo from a raft of issues including TikTok going away or not, a poorly explained Q4 ER revenue crash, and now tariffs. I am glad I held for the Q1 ER as the stock has popped 40%. Still a loser for my sister though. It is hard to tell if there is a predictable growth story going forward. Here are my Q4 ER clips.

Starting with tariffs and our mitigation efforts. To set the foundation, about 75% of our global production today comes from China. As of May 14, product imports of the U.S. are now subject to tariffs at the 55% level, 25% that was put in place in 2019, plus an incremental 30% that’s now in place through mid-August. While we are hopeful of having some long-term resolution, the timing of a more permanent rate is not known and the range of outcomes is broad.

In fiscal 2025, we grew net sales 28% and adjusted EBITDA by 26%. We gained share globally across our largest geographies, including 190 basis points of share in the U.S., a 170 basis points of share in Canada and 270 basis points of share in the UK.

Q4 net sales grew 4% year-over-year on top of 71% growth in Q4 of last year

A very respectable Q1 with a clear as mud future. I am out.

BTW I do like the Hailey Berber cosmetic acquisition. But here is another unknown.

-zane

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I can’t figure out for the life of me why a dilutive acquisition to generate growth in a business with a low moat would cause the stock price to spike. So I conclude the spike was tariff-related. I sold my shares long ago when it was discovered that the C-suite had dumped 90% of their shares.

Vinnie G

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Teenage girls love ELF and Rhode. They love ELF because their products are close to the quality of the high-end stuff and yet much less expensive. Maybe 90% of the quality for less than half the price. They knew about the acquisition the same time investment people did because they love Rhode too and the Girls’ News Service was all over that faster than ours. Tariffs are a concern, but my well paid consultant (teen age girl) would continue buying ELF products anyway, because they are still good stuff and still cheaper and super-available.

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I use the same advisory firm as you, my wife and daughter, who like Elf products, and they’re usually high end consumers.

Rhode is marketing with a vegan approach, products not tested on animals, something gaining in popularity.

Also, I found this, “In May 2025, Rhode announced it would be acquired by e.l.f. in a deal that consists of $800 million in cash and stock, with an additional $200 million based on future sales.”

So, Ms. Bieber will have some skin in the game, and keep influencing her followers. FWIW.

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I have purchased many ELF products and am at their highest loyalty tier. But something new comes along - For example, the Koreans and Chinese are selling products with snail secretions on Amazon and they are inexpensive and some say very effective.

A matter of time.

Vinnie G

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You got to be kidding, right? C’mon, snail poop!

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Not sure why anyone would want to own Elf at this point, I sold it a long time ago when the sales fell through the floor. It grew 70-80% for quite a long time. It grew 3.6% last quarter. Not exactly a growth stock.

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