ELF Q1 2024 earnings

I don’t know. I was interpreting this as unplanned supply chain problems happening just as they needed a ton to open up a new market. If I am about to throw a huge “WE HAVE ARRIVED” event, the customers there get first crack at the products I have just to avoid a bad first impression. If they can’t supply their “coming out” party in a new country, that market would be lost to the news stories ridiculing the failure. US customers will wait.

If their supply chain can’t keep up, maybe they planned poorly or their manufacturers aren’t cutting it.

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Specifically to online orders on the ELF web site or app. I prefer buying online anyway as it syncs automatically with the loyalty program and the prices are better. You need to scan the receipt from any physical outlet purchases, although it is very easy to do.
Vince

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That is interesting. If ELF is competing directly with their own retailers, that could explain the “picked over and missing products” observation of others at Walmart and Target. ELF could make enemies by undercutting prices of their largest retail outlets.

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I don’t think ELF would undercut prices. ELF makes all revenues from selling off its website and has to revenue share with retailers. So it benefits ELF to sell direct to consumer but they don’t need to lower any prices to benefit. That would be very uncommon too.

Separately, I drove to the giant Target near my house to check out the ELF display there and am happy to report that it looked pretty good to me.

There were plenty of products and while there were “picked over” pockets among them, I just took that to mean the most popular products were selling out fast.

The energy bars I prefer were also picked over.

From at least the perspective where I live (San Francisco), it all looked healthy and normal to me.

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I know we don’t track short term price movements, but ELF is up 7.5% today on an upgrade from Canaccord Genuity with a price target of $250.

The company is “doing elf-ing well,” analyst Susan Anderson wrote in a Monday note. “Overall, we still believe ELF is in the early innings of its growth story as the brand still lags the legacy brands around brand recognition and even shelf space depending on the channel.” Anderson noted that Elf’s management has historically been conservative with guidance, meaning that the company is likely to outperform in its 2025 fiscal year sales and international segment. The company’s upcoming Walmart partnership could result in an additional $160 million in sales, according to the analyst. “In addition to the Walmart shelf-space expansion that we believe could prove to be an even bigger dollar contributor than the recent successes at Target, ELF is also continuing to grow at break-neck pace in the online channel and internationally,” said Anderson.

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