Normally, in the morning, when I look at my panel of 21 MF boards that I’m following, I see anywhere from 10 to 25 new posts scattered around. This morning, I saw a long column of zeros, and one single “1”. I suspect everyone is shell-shocked from the pounding they’ve been getting from the market the last couple of weeks. Well, I think that the chances that the world is coming to an end in the next week are vastly overrated. As Mark Twain said “The reports of my death have been greatly exaggerated”. One could say the same for the market.
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Perhaps I should have clarified that the reason everyone is so shell shocked is that all their well functioning, rapidly growing, companies, who have had no bad news at all, have sold off sharply for no reason, for at least the third time this year. Even if their PE ratios and other measures of value are very reasonable. This has been a very tough year to be an investor. There are some years like that. However last year I, for one, was up 51% on my portfolio, and I know of others on this board who were up more.
The trouble is, you never know in advance what the year will bring. At the end of 2008, all the advisors and talking heads were saying “Sell everything!” One financial expert, when asked what positions he’d be in, said “Cash, and the fetal position!”. That’s how scared everyone was for 2009. — I was up 110.7% in 2009. If I had listened to the doom and gloomers I’d have less than half the assets now than I have. Just saying…
Thanks for the reality check, Saul. I for one thought last year was going to be a disaster - market had been up a bunch of years and I’d done well. There was a moment mid-year when I actually thought about taking my chips and cashing them in but decided, hey, I’m in for the long game, what’s the point? Ended the year 62% up…
Like you said, you never know…
It may be just me but when I look back I see that some of my best performing stocks were bought or added to about this time of the year.
So Saul any hints on what you are looking at?
Personally, I feel like my portfolio is in a kind of limbo – definitely off its highs, but not many of my companies have gotten cheap enough to make them clear buys. I did top up my UBNT position, which I had been wanting to do. AVO at these prices is also tempting, but it’s already a large position for me.
So without earnings, or news, or clear opportunity… well there’s just not much to say
I’m glad there isn’t more gnashing of teeth, though. I really expected the boards to explode with panic, but I haven’t seen any of that yet. Maybe that lack of panic is, itself, a sign.
I really expected the boards to explode with panic, but I haven’t seen any of that yet
Neil, Maybe that’s because we had been through two previous irrational sell-offs already this year. Just a possibility.
I did top up my UBNT position, which I had been wanting to do. AVO at these prices is also tempting,
I also added to my already large UBNT position. I feel the same about Avigilon. I added to SKX. I added to SWKS.
I had written about INBK If I were to take another trial position, which I’m not ruling out, it would have to be a very small one. and that’s what I did. I took a very small position.
I sold some Z to raise the cash. Z is really extended at a PE well over 100. I know they are investing in their future, but I have companies growing nicely at reasonable PE’s (such as the ones I added to).
Great advice. I had also been noticing a lack of posts on many boards, but didn’t put it together with the market performance.
Last couple of weeks have been rough, but I’ve also used it as a good time to reevaluate positions. Got out of LULU around earnings, and Z earlier this week, and cut my TSLA position by about 2/3.
Still watching on BWLD, UA, and MNST, but haven’t been convinced to get out yet.
I’ve also noticed over the years with a lot of the RB stocks that the tend to do best in the month or so after earnings, and then slow down a bit during the second half of the quarter. I think the market kinda forgets about them as there is less news and coverage than the bigger stocks out there. Good for us.
Prime example is SXK. Big drop last week on a minor negative point. Big drop this week on NO NEWS. Even the robo-news sites barely had anything about it being a big mover for the day.
Personally I could see growth slowing, but I’ll wait and see for real signs of slowdown before getting out.
Another interesting one is PFIE. It was down in the mid 3s in early Aug and up to the low 5s in early sept. Now back to around 4. Could seem like the world is great or ending depending when you got in, but I like the prospects.
AIOCF really makes me want to buy more. I like everything I see and hear about the company… but I want to see more numbers before I make my position bigger.
SZYM is the only one that does feel like the world is ending… I think the long term prospects are great, but I have wondered more how long term it may need to be to see them play out.
Saul, thanks again for your thoughts and enjoy the weekend!
,i>I had written about INBK If I were to take another trial position, which I’m not ruling out, it would have to be a very small one. and that’s what I did. I took a very small position.
Saul, Anirban, and others who have varying INBK positions:
An informative article on INBK was just posted to SA. Some highlights below.
Here is a company that is growing assets at a pace that beats 98% of its peers (bank holding companies with consolidated assets in the $500 million to $1 billion range). Its operating leverage is also coming into play enabling efficiency ratio to be quickly normalized and then decline further more gradually thereafter. As a result, ROAE will likely be at the top of the pack in two years.
Yet the stock is now trading at 74% of book value and 78% tangible book value (as of close of market 9/26/2014). Sellers are continuing to push the stock lower as insiders are buying in. Yep, market the voting machine is casting a resounding SELL vote on the stock now. But sooner or later, market the weighing machine will surely tell us who are really smarter, the sellers who can’t stop pressing the SELL button now or the insider buyers who are growing this company rapidly, methodologically, and profitably.