Did anyone understand die stock price action?
What we are missing? Or just manipulation of shorts?
ESPR up a bit today. They issued 3,500 RSUâs to a new hire. No idea how many shares per RSU. I see no announcement from IR about a significant hire.
KC
Hi KC,
there was a PR today
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Dreamer lurks! Good day today. NTNX up 4%, ESPR up 13%. ENVX up 20%. ENVX made first shipment from Fab 2, Malaysia. 'Course, in total just 10% of port. In U.S. almost a week now, probably take train to Oregon this weekend. Re-entry shock. Last visit was pre-COVID. KC
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1 share per RSU, so 3500 shares. In this case I donât think it is a significant hire
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ER today.
Good but not great (again). Very similar vibe, to me, as Q2. Was hoping for just a bit more.
$31.1m US sales.
what do the numbers and trends say? Keeping in mind, that some things have fundamentally changed:
- payer coverage
- expanded label
- RIPA gone
Can this Q4 buck the trend and see Q/Q growth rise? If so, that may be best to hope for, as Q1-25 seems like it should have a pop, based on trends.
Esperion is now, officially, a 50%+ growth stock. Kind of expected that as a layup, but heyâŚit is something.
Next up is 60%+ and they âshouldâ be able to do that. I am concerned about holidays a bit. But hopefully offset by the positive momentum with payers and improved ease of prescribing without Prior Auth needed.
It does seem like Q1-25 would/could be good. There is a final round of payer improvements, such as Express Scripts formulary listing them but with start date of 1/1/25. So quite possible the ease of prescribing improves further at start of the new year. Not sure how much more rope I want to give them, only because the stock price stubbornly seems stuck.
If I take a page from Saulâs book, I follow the numbers and the trends. And right now, the trends are still intact, although Q/Q slipped. Supposedly, and I am not a pharma bro, Summer months are tough on Rx numbers. But there is always an excuseâŚalways a hurricane or something.
Dreamer
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Todayâs PR
https://www.esperion.com/news-releases/news-release-details/esperion-reports-third-quarter-2024-financial-results-and
Investor preso and a couple Nov science conf events listed here:
https://www.esperion.com/investor-relations/events
I donât have the transcript yet, but only thing new of note was around Canada market and expecting a partnership soon. This is potentially important as there may be upfront funds tied to that partnership, and those funds could be used to offset the Nov 2025 Notes that will come due. Some online state once Notes get within a year of their due date, they become liabilities or something like that, on balance sheetâŚso in your interest to address this month.
The other not really new news but good to hear news was that Japan partner Otsuka is on track to file by EOY, which triggers a milestone payment (I think $25m but not positive).
Still on track is that European partner DSE takes over pill manufacturing in 2025 and apparently on schedule and that reduces costs, improving profitability moving forward.
Right now their pace, with my proj Q4 is about a $120m US sales number for 2024. Again - despite their small cap, I have to remind myself that this is not a no-revenue SPAC or anything. They do over $100m/year in revenue. Their product is real and insurance companies formulary and UM updates show that the product is real, and the sales growth and Rx growth is real.
50% is pretty awesome normally, but the y/y compare feels a bit off bc they were flat for a couple Qâs in 2023 so the compare this Q and in Q4 is a bit easy y/y.
So the time to ramp is now. Definitely not time to slow the Qtrly growth.
Any partnership news can be notable, so letâs see if it happens in next few weeks or not.
Dreamer
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script growth is the true measure of the business of drugs, me thinks.
sales is tied to the 3 large PBMs that buy the pills for all the distribution.
I think scripts tell a better growth story since Q1 than sales. it also doesnât have such a lumpy y/y compare.
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For this stock it has been said for ages that the next quarter will show and set the direction 
Iâm disappointed with the share performance but itâs clear that itâs being manipulated until you give up and then the share goes up steeply
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13f updates / insider fund ownership
and interview w CEO
https://www.fiercehealthcare.com/sponsored/2024-pivotal-year-fight-against-cardiovascular-disease
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that start of pushing out into adjacent indications.
âBempedoic Acid and Limb Outcomes in Statin-Intolerant Patients with Peripheral Artery Disease.â â presented on behalf of all authors by Marc P. Bonaca, MD, MPH, FAHA, FACC, CPC Clinical Research
Highlights: This analysis focused on the incidence of major adverse limb events (MALE) in patients with pre-existing PAD enrolled in the CLEAR Outcomes trial. Bempedoic acid reduced MALE (e.g. worsening PAD symptoms leading to revascularization, chronic limb threatening ischemia, and acute limb ischemia events) by 36% compared to placebo.
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I think ESPR did well for a few days after earnings and seemed to gather a little momentum. However, it was more recently dragged down with the overall XBI (biotech ETF) sell-off following RFK Jr.'s nomination as the next Food and Drug Administration chairman. The market seems to think this is bad for big pharma, which ESPR isnât a part of. Whether RFK gets confirmed or not, most of the news seems to be related to nutrition, vaccines, and fluorine in our water. I donât see how any of this affects ESPR.
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KC - did you keep the ESPR?
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KC - did you keep the ESPR?
No.
I continued to buy through August, September and October until I held 56% more than when I posted. On October 23 I sold 98% of the ESPR and bought BTCO. Since then I have purchased more ESPR on November 7 and 18 to bring me back to 11% of that 8/13 share holding.
So I missed 90% the recent spike which takes a bit of the shine off of the BTCO gains.
I still like ESPR and see a 4x or 5x in the crystal ball. It is 0.65% of portfolio now. Deserves⌠2%? Buy dips?
KC
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Otsuka, the Japan partner, took the expected next step of submitting the drug so they can start selling in 2025. This is expected to trigger a $20m milestone payment to Esperion, presumably here in Q4.
While expected, it is good to see things moving forward.
Dreamer
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I sold most of my ESPR on Wednesday, just because⌠bored? By back on a dip. I guess I sold the expected news.
Whatever, $2.50 even.
KC
$2.80 at the momentâŚ
Hope everyone had a good thanksgiving!
Dreamer
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The Biotech index XBI is still down 43% from itâs 2021 highs but we may be finally starting a good run for biotech. Itâs normally a late cycle investment so I think ESPR might be a good play if biotech does well in 2025.
I get the larger index play, but the catalysts are all specific to Esperion, at least for my rationale in investing in it. But an index tailwind can only help!
News today on Canada market:
Dreamer
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Is it time for someone to bring ESPR to Saul board?
Still to come:
- Otsuka milestones
- DSE milestones
- DSE and US sales trends (looking for continuation)
- DS (non-EU) royalties in South America or South Asia, etc
- Refinancing of 2025 Notes
- DSE taking over pill manufacturing (reducing ESPR costs)
- Investor Day / rollout of new indications (liver, kidney, etc)
- News on Australia and Israel.
- Partnership for Canada, Australia, or Israel potentially.
- Partnership or Acquisition for US business potentially.
Ongoing: Payer updates/improvements, continued removal of Prior AuthâŚlower costs for consumers will be another tailwind to script growth.
Dreamer
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