(Disclosure, I hold about a 3% position in ETSY.)
I’m not trying to defend ETSY saying anyone should not sell, and instead should hold or add, but just trying to point out that the Q2 growth could be looked at as not as bad as it seems in this message. Here are the revs and growth rates posted in Saul’s message:
Revenues (with masks)
2019 169 181 198 270
2020 228 429 451 617
2021 551 _**541**_
Growth rates
2020 35% 137% 128% 129%
2021 142% _**26%**_
The 541 is my estimate of the Q2 revs based on their average guide and a 5% beat. I’ll admit, that doesn’t look the best, but nobody should have been expecting the growth to remain in the triple digits beyond a year (just like ZM or any of the other big Covid beneficiaries).
To me (and as some others have pointed out), the mask sales really skewed the numbers for the last 4 quarters (kind of like the DDOG “adjustment” we’ve been modeling, but in the opposite direction) and their effect is now almost gone (per management, just 2.5% of GMS in calendar Q1 and still dropping). If we remove their effect over the past 4 quarters you have the following. They stated that mask sales were 14% of 20Q2 GMS, 11% of 20Q3, 4% of 20Q4, and 2.5% of 21Q1, and still dropping, so I estimated 2% for 20Q2. Also, I just used those same %s for the rev reduction (not sure if that is right, but I’m sure someone will correct me if it’s not 
).
Revenues (without masks)
2019 169 181 198 270
2020 228 369 401 592
2021 537 _**530**_
Growth rates
2020 35% 104% 103% 119%
2021 136% _**44%**_
So their “core business growth” without the mask sales over the past year for Q2 may be more like 44% instead of what will show up as maybe 26%. I’m not making any guesses beyond that, but 44% growth isn’t too shabby, especially for a company that also has earnings.