EV supply and demand

The camper van they are covering is not the one introduced. It is just a mini-van (seats and storage area) in the vehicle, not with extra gear added by VW to make it a “real” camper (and much heavier). Sold in Europe, but not in US.

Slowing sales…

Ford is cutting its 2024 production goals for the F-150 Lightning electric pickup truck in half because of slowing demand for battery-powered vehicles. It’s absolutely an ominous sign for the industry as a whole as demand for electric vehicles just isn’t where most automakers thought it would be. From Bloomberg:

The automaker now intends to build 1,600 of the trucks a week in 2024 at its plant in Dearborn, Michigan, down from a previous plan to manufacture 3,200 units of the model weekly, a company spokeswoman said Monday. The automaker has been informing suppliers of the production cuts on a model Chief Executive Officer Jim Farley once said was “a test for adoption for electric vehicles” in America.

The move comes as Ford scales back spending on electric vehicles by $12 billion and downsized by nearly half a battery factory it’s building in Michigan. Farley has said the robust EV demand the company expected hasn’t materialized because potential buyers are balking at high prices and spotty charging infrastructure. The automaker also is lowering production of its electric Mustang Mach-E in Mexico and put on hold plans for a second battery factory in Kentucky.

DB2

A friend of mine used to go to Norway on business and was quite impressed by their electrication. They put the infrastructure in first, using money from North Sea oil to do this :slight_smile:

It’s a small, mountainous country and gets most of its energy from hydroelectricity.

The government also reduced taxes on EV making them about the same price as ICE.

Contrast this with the USA where California alone will need over a million charging points:

People who quote “Norway” ignore the substantial differences between that society and nearly every other.

In addition to major government incentives (rebates, tax abatements, traffic privileges), it is a small, homogeneous country, and home ownership in Norway is north of 80%, far above nearly every other otherwise comparable country.

Norway offered 50% price incentives to install EV chargers at “common housing” (condominium and coop) and at private housing, as well as “free charging” at public parking garages (you still had to pay for parking as with any vehicle.) These incentives were a mix of local and national government initiatives, so they were less in some areas, but highly encouraged in others. (Apartment buildings in some cities were offered over $100,000 to install chargers, for instance.)

There is so much different between infrastructure, geography, political will, public sentiment, funding and other factors that I’m not sure it’s productive to mention “Norway” when comparing adoption and penetration elsewhere, except perhaps as a role model if you’re in the “transition away from fossil” camp.

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EV demand is slowing down for the OEMs. GM, Ford, VW production technology for electric vehicles is years behind that of Tesla . That’s why they lose money on every EV they sell. That’s why they can’t lower prices to increase demand.

Meanwhile Tesla is expanding production facilities in Shanghai, Berlin, and Texas, presumably in preparation for the $25K model in about 2025. In the meantime, Tesla will enter 2024 with a new Model 3 and a soon to be improved Model Y while facing little competitive pressure from western automakers.

The real problem with the EV industry not named Tesla is that they can’t compete with Tesla.

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From what I read all the car companies are talking of major improvements in batteries:

These are going to be cheaper with improved charging times and ranges. This will make present day EVs a very unattractive buy. Why buy an EV now, knowing that they are going to be effectively obsolete in a few years.

I’ll wait until they get them right.

Speaking of Norway, some buses their are going through their first winter.

The transport operator confirms that the electric buses are simply not reliable enough in winter: “The range of the electric buses decreases drastically in the cold. The batteries run out more quickly.”

DB2

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Tell you right now Musk’s BS on X will hurt him badly in the EU. To Western Europeans, freedom does not mean proving the village idiots can express themselves in seats of power. Musk panders to the biggest idiots he can find. That won’t fly. Zero respect for that over there.

I think that in most cases people use Norway to show that it is possible to support a quick transition to EV technology (car tax benefits and recharging infrastructure, etc.) and not have serious effect on the economy, for example.

The same thing can not happen for a much larger country because then you run into issues having to do with the scale of supply of lithium, for example.

Mike

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DB2

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WPS along with several other Maine school districts received the electric buses as part of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s $5 billion “Clean School Bus Program,” launched in October 2022, which has a goal of transitioning all public school bus fleets to 75 percent all-electric buses by 2035. As part of this program, the district reportedly gave up a diesel bus for each new electric one.

Winthrop received its four buses from Lion Electric in September, and three out of the four are tied up awaiting repairs…According to the report, the heating systems in three out of the four buses have failed.

DB2

While Central Maine Power was able to restore 92% of its customers by Thursday evening, BEP opted to postpone its meeting indefinitely…

The rule in question would mandate that 43% of new car sales for 2027 be zero-emission EVs and then increase that mandate to 82% by 2032.

DB2

Ford Cuts Electric F-150 Plans in Ominous Sign for EV Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-11/ford-slashes-electric-f-150-plans-in-ominous-sign-for-ev-market?embedded-checkout=true
Ford Motor Co. is cutting 2024 production goals in half for its F-150 Lightning plug-in pickup truck — its signature electric vehicle — due to slowing demand for battery-powered models.

The automaker now intends to build 1,600 of the trucks a week next year at its plant in Dearborn, Michigan, down from a previous plan to manufacture 3,200 weekly, a company spokeswoman said.

DB2

It noted that it is also considering the restructuring or potential shutdown of its Audi plant in Brussels, where it employs 3,000 people, on the back of weak demand for the Audi Q8 e-tron line — a fully electric offering from the brand, launched in 2019…

If it presses ahead, this would mark Volkswagen’s first factory shutdown in nearly four decades, since the 1988 closure of its plant in Westmoreland County, Pennsylvania.

DB2

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Mercedes slows battery plant plans amid lower EV demand
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/mercedes-cautious-battery-expansion-plans-ev-demand-slumps
Mercedes-Benz’s forecast that 50% of sales would be either full-electric or plug-in hybrid by 2025 is looking increasingly unlikely.

Mercedes spending more than planned on combustion engines
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/mercedess-kallenius-ups-spending-ices-and-plug-hybrids
Mercedes will keep sprucing up its ICE models amid slower demand for EVs, CEO Ola Kallenius says.

DB2

Dr Bob “On weak EV demand” “On weak EV demand”

I do not think that means what you think it means.

EV demand is up. Share of car sales for EV’s, up from 4% in 2020 to 18% today. There is no other market segment showing such growth, except for hybrids, a different form of EV.

Hybrid Cars Outpace EV Growth

In 2023, hybrid and EV sales in the U.S. each crossed 1 million for the first time. Hybrid sales rose 65% vs. a 46% gain for EV sales, according to Edmunds data.

During the first quarter, Toyota’s overall sales jumped 21.3%. But within that number, sales of the hybrid Camry soared 142.7% vs. an overall Camry sales increase of 18.6%.


https://www.investors.com/news/hybrid-cars-ev-electric-vehicles-ford-gm-tesla-toyota-honda/#:~:text=Hybrid%20Cars%20Outpace%20EV%20Growth,Toyota’s%20overall%20sales%20jumped%2021.3%25.

I think what you and your headline writers mean is that EV Euphoria is weaker. That is a different thing.

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What it clearly means is that EV demand is weaker than it was expected to be. Otherwise VW wouldn’t be talking about closing the Audi plant in Belgium and Mercedes would be talking about meeting its 50% EV targets next year.

It is also a reduction in euphoria. Never a good idea to make plans (business or otherwise) based on euphoria.

DB2

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Would that be a function of the gullibility of auto industry “JCs”, that swallowed all the hype?

Steve

Ironic because demand is about to rise. Ford get it wrong? Why not?

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That’s what I said. “…than expected to be.” There was a lot of silly hype after Tesla made the big showing a few years ago. Just like there was for the internet in 1998, and for real estate mortgages in 2006. Yet the internet is part of nearly every single citizen in the developed world today, and home mortgages and credit is a bigger business than ever.

Last year EV sales increased 60% and now represent almost 10% or all car sales. That’s an amazing jump for one of the biggest industries of the past century and one which is a major jobs provider and resource consumer in the country. And while the sales increase is bound to come down on a percentage basis, the effect on the business is profound, a bigger shift in consumer behavior than any that car makers have seen since the end of World War II.

EV Statistics 2024.

Euphoria? Yes, over. Impact? Not hardly.

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