ex-Rubicon CFO now Pres and CFO JustFab

Todd Tappin, who recently left Rubicon for a Presidency at another company, is now working for JustFab, who owns a variety of start-ups including Kate Hudson’s Fabletics.

Start-ups through IPO are his forte, since the days he worked for IdeaLab. I don’t think he left RUBI for any other reason than he was moving on to greener pastures.

I never really bought-into the idea that he was low-balling guidance, so I recently trimmed my position until I see they are upping guidance again.

cautiousone

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I never really bought-into the idea that he was low-balling guidance

Hi cautiousone. Don’t you think that the fact that they beat estimates by 100% or more EVERY QUARTER as a public company might imply that he was low-balling guidance???

Saul

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they beat estimates by 100% or more EVERY QUARTER as a public company

Have you ever encountered a better textbook example of low-balling estimates in your life??

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They’ve only been public since Apr 2014, so EVERY QUARTER means eight, 2 years worth. And, they’ve only recently posted a profit, a point in time that always garners fresh investors.

When they IPOed, they opened at $17.50 and closed at $20 - that’s where they were at the time of the Hochfeld article. The opportunities to make money on RUBI have been in trading it. They IPOed during and/or just prior to the big ad publishers acquiring their own ad platforms (example: FB bought LiveRail (video) four months after), that’s a lot of the reason why the IPO didn’t take-off and dropped to $9. Ad Network agreements and Competitor Acquisitions play a much bigger role than guidance in the fluctuation of their stock price. Part of the reason for this drop is that they stated they weren’t taking a piece of election ad rev - misunderstood by analysts, which had helped it ride toward $20.

Chango played a big part of recent earnings. But, as I stated in the AdExchanger article, that I linked to in a previous thread, this will not contribute so largely in the future. (FYI: Many, including Hochfeld, who BTW notes he’s a convicted felon in his bio, compare Criteo to RUBI. What is comparable is Chango and Criteo.)

With the ever-changing landscape, through merger and acquisitions, customer migration (see the Datanyze site for stats) and changes in Ad Network agreements, I believe the CFO guidance, confidence-wise, can’t look too far out. Also, I didn’t find that his guidance while with GOTO (Overture), which was a mutli-bagger for me before it was bought by Yahoo, was low-balled. Honestly, I’ve got more faith in him and AdExchanger than Hochfeld, the former two being industry experts. IMO, it’s better safe than sorry on this stock. I do still own some in the $9’s. The high teens allowed my to scale out a bit.

cautiosone

  • FB, GOOG are 5x the holdings for me when comes to ad tech revenues, much safer bets.
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