As taxes increase, high tax-payers migrate to greener pastures.
That’s part of it, but most studies point to the high cost of housing; there hasn’t been enough housing built in California to match population growth for decades. Because of that, it is mainly the middle class that is migrating out.
DB2
The internal data on this is rather interesting (far more interesting that the actual article):
https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/blogs/midwest-econom…
Last two years of data (in the aggregate) ranked by outflows between states:
Interesting pattern of large numbers of people moving to and from CA/TX and CA/VA. Would be interesting to examine the financials of those moving one direction vs the other.
A LOT more data in the link.
California experienced a major population boom in the late 20th century — reaching 37 million people by 2000 — it’s been losing residents since
2010 to 2020, California’s population grew by 5.8% (or 2.4 million)…
First, get your facts straight.
Second, 352,000 residents out of 39 million is 0.9%. More people die in a month than the number of people leaving.
Third, if you don’t like California or you don’t know why you moved here, get the hell out. California doesn’t need a bunch of cry babies.
Fourth, wake me up when five million people leave California, because I’ve been hearing about the great California Exodus since the 70s.
I’ve been hearing about the great California Exodus since the 70s.
Same here. I was in Silicon Valley in the early 90s when I worked for Texas Instruments. We were visiting a company, Chips and Technologies, as it was selling off parts of itself on its way to no longer existing. One of the guys told me people are leaving California so much that one-way U-Haul rentals out-of-state are very expensive, because they have to ship back empty trailers/trucks as a result. Funny how the state is STILL the tech leader, still the most populous, still an agricultural power house, the list goes on.
The death of California has been grossly exaggerated for decades now.
Funny how the state is STILL the tech leader, still the most populous, still an agricultural power house, the list goes on.
Go to Saul’s board, how many companies recommend there are Not in the Bay Area?
Have you seen what Google is doing in downtown San Jose?
If people don’t like San Francisco then go live in Detroit, great weather, no crime.
California Envy is weird. If they were a sovereign nation they would still have the fifth highest gdp in the world behind Germany and ahead of India,
First, get your facts straight.
Send a letter to the Los Angeles Times. And one to Columbia’s School of Journalism where Summer Lin went to school.
DB2
Dear DB2,
Sorry. That was a touch rude, I read your quote out of context.
California bashing just gets old, it goes on all the time.
I really shouldn’t care
But same said, sorry to be rude.
But same said, sorry to be rude.
No problem, although politeness is a quality that is often undervalued in this day and age.
As for California, the underlying (and well known) problem is the cost of housing. The state has said that there is a 2-3 million unit shortfall.
https://lhc.ca.gov/report/california-housing-building-more-a…
This shortfall puts the middle class in a squeeze, forces people to live in more distant places, increases air pollution, increases racial and class inequity, makes it difficult for young people to get established et cetera.
DB2
On the other hand I would offer Texas severance pay if they got serious about seceding.
And California has something else important, being "the place where it happens for all manner of tech, agro, media, arts…
My nephews can live whereever they want. One lives in Vermont because he adores the outdoors and skiing. The others all live in California, which in addition to all manner of other goodies (surf city, wines, healthy sexy population,…) provides a climate where people meet in bars after work to eagerly and excitedly talk about work. Think of that.
Weirdos.
david fb
This shortfall puts the middle class in a squeeze, forces people to live in more distant places, increases air pollution, increases racial and class inequity, makes it difficult for young people to get established et cetera.
Air quality was much more of a problem in the 60s and 70s, today California has the lowest carbon dioxide emissions per capita in the United States
https://solarpower.guide/solar-energy-insights/infographics/…
As far as “racial and class inequity,” that ship sailed long ago. In California, racial equality is more even than anywhere in the South. I read that Africa Americans in Oakland CA have highest median income in the United States.
Not able to verify that.
The high cost of living and taxes are the continuing problem.
I don’t like the taxes
My daughters have to work hard to keep up with the cost of living here, I don’t like either.
…but housing was well-above the national average my whole adult life, mortgage rates were 12%, it’s never been easy in California.
If people want to move to Texas, I understand that, and good for them.
The California that I experience is awesome, and I live all over the United States.
From the commission report on California housing:
“California needs an additional 1.8 million to 3.5 million homes to adequately house its population. The Department of Housing and Community Development called for the construction of 180,000 new units annually between 2015 and 2025 to close the gap. Instead, the state has averaged around 80,000 new units per year”
“The consequences are devastating. California’s housing shortage has plunged many families into poverty that otherwise wouldn’t be. California’s poverty rate, at 11%, is on par with the national average when cost of living is not taken into consideration. When it is, California’s poverty rate skyrockets to 17.2% – the highest in the nation.”
“The housing crisis results in Californians living farther away from their jobs, resulting in longer commutes with more greenhouse gas emissions, and increased building in areas prone to wildfire and other natural disasters.”
“It has public health implications by forcing Californians to live in more crowded conditions and impacting the mental health of Californians vulnerable to losing their home. Further, housing insecurity contributes to feelings of hopelessness and social conflict.”
DB2
From the 2018 report on California housing:
www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/plans-reports/docs/sha_final_…
DB2
Agree that small CA population decline vs. National Avg growth far from mass “exodus.” Agree to, CA has some of the best weather conditions in the World.
Can anyone shed light on the demographic population picture of whose leaving vs. those entering CA.
GLTA Fools!
paul
Can anyone shed light on the demographic population picture of whose leaving vs. those entering CA.
Here ya go, courtesy of the IRS:
SOI Tax Stats - Migration Data
www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data
Click on a state map:
www.irs.gov/statistics/soi-tax-stats-migration-data-2018-201…
DB2
Can anyone shed light on the demographic population picture of whose leaving vs. those entering CA.
What little info I have on the subject suggests (but ONLY suggests - I’m claiming precisely zero scientific rigor here, folks!) that the people leaving look quite a lot like the people arriving.
When my sister was in her mid to late 20s, she and her then-husband spent several years in the San Diego area. They knew quite a number of people of similar age. Only one person they knew was a native Californian, and that person was trying to arrange a move to another state.
Can anyone shed light on the demographic population picture of whose leaving vs. those entering CA.
This topic comes up from time to time on this board, so I looked into it a while back. Turns out those immigrating to Califoria tend to be high income/high skilled, and those leaving tend to be low income/low skilled.
Which makes sense. California is expensive, so you’re not likely to move there unless you’ve got a good job.
https://www.ppic.org/blog/whos-leaving-california-and-whos-m…
“California needs an additional 1.8 million to 3.5 million homes to adequately house its population. The Department of Housing and Community Development called for the construction of 180,000 new units annually between 2015 and 2025 to close the gap. Instead, the state has averaged around 80,000 new units per year”
True, and if you take a quick look at my posts, you’ll see that I have said this over and over and over. Inflation is not the problem, the problem is supply. The Fed’s action curbing inflation will hurt those at the bottom most; unemployment, wage stagnation, loan rate putting first time buyers out of the market all to appease the Fed’s desire to cap wage inflation.
I have posted this before:
https://www.worldpropertyjournal.com/real-estate-news/united…
Rising home prices and interest rates are taking a terrible toll on housing affordability, with 87.5 million households – or roughly 69% of all U.S. households – unable to afford a new median-priced home.
"The housing affordability crisis is driven by one factor: as a nation, we have failed to produce enough housing to keep up with demand.
(National Association of Home Builders chairman Jerry Konter before the House Ways and Means Committee Hearing July 2022)
California has created affordable housing bills to help first time buyers. CalHFA offers several options for down payment; a 3.5% down payment allows first time buyers a chance to get into a house, but up to an amount of $856,600 with a 721 credit score. That comes with a big PMI, and the new loan rates that are double what they were from last year.
I have said over and over that the Fed’s current policy will create massive demand for rental properties and end the hope of home ownership.
Turns out those immigrating to Califoria tend to be high income/high skilled, and those leaving tend to be low income/low skilled.
Sort of, but not really. If nothing else, that division leaves out the middle income group. According to the IRS data I linked upthread, the average AGI (adjusted gross income) of those leaving in 2018-19 was $93K. Gross incomes would be larger. Here’s the distribution; low income would be the first two brackets.
AGI Percent
<$10K 6%
$10-25K 17%
$25-50K 25%
$50-75K 15%
$75-100K 10%
$100-200K 17%
>$200K 9%
DB2