The U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time this year in June, according to economists polled by Reuters who are clinging to their views despite the risk that disruption of energy markets resulting from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran boosts already-elevated inflation.
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The options market has shifted to low probability of fed funds cut before September. That’s 2/3 NO and 1/3 YES in September.
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
The fun has just begun. The Fed would be negligent to cut rates if they remember the 1970s…which I hope every economist has front of mind in this situation.
Wendy
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