Feels good to be a picker

Investment Analysis Clubs Saul’s Investing Discussions
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With today’s flash crash, the Dow and S&P are now negative for 2018.

SHOP, ANET, PSTG, and SQ are all still up double digit percentages. Even though I’ve lost several percent in the first 3 trading days of February, for the year I’m still up 7% or so.

Who knows what the next few days, weeks, and months of 2018 will bring? We may gain ground or we may lose it. But I’ll feel much better knowing I’m invested in companies I’ve studied and understand, companies which continue churning out impressive revenues and profits, regardless of what price the market puts on them at any given time.

It’s good to be a stock picker!

Bear

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With today’s flash crash, the Dow and S&P are now negative for 2018.

SHOP, ANET, PSTG, and SQ are all still up double digit percentages. Even though I’ve lost several percent in the first 3 trading days of February, for the year I’m still up 7% or so. Who knows what the next few days, weeks, and months of 2018 will bring? We may gain ground or we may lose it.

Hi Bear,
And the Russell 2000 is negative too. By coincidence I am also up 7.0%. It was nice to have that cushion, wasn’t it. I do really agree with the following sentiments of yours:

But I’ll feel much better knowing I’m invested in companies I’ve studied and understand, companies which continue churning out impressive revenues and profits, regardless of what price the market puts on them at any given time. It’s good to be a stock picker!

And thanks for all the useful posts you add to the board.

Saul

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Well holy moly! Despite the crash in NVDA today, according to the year to date chart for NVDA and ANET, I am up more than 10% this year so far.

Not that it much matters as I have no intent to sell today. I did sell some NVDA with a planned sale to buy something else with. But it was mostly only transferring some new money that went into NVDA into something else. I did not take this into account in the year to date calculation, as it would have mitigated the NVDA losses today, but only by a little bit.

For the most part tax consequences will stop me from selling much anyways, and I cannot bring myself to sell ANET, but can bring myself to sell some Nvidia to buy something else.

Oh well, such things use to put me into an angst that would make for an unpleasant day. Now, don’t care too much. Just interested in more qualitative talk on the companies that I am interested in.

I thought NVDA’s fall today was due to drop in bit coin as a proxy for crypto currencies in general. However, nearly all semiconductors, perhaps not SWKS, took a big beating today. Have no reason why semiconductors did worse than elsewhere, but the market acts as panicked people do, in unpredictable and manic fashion.

But yes, I have expanded my horizons to holding a third again (at least for now). Not necessarily the best day to buy anything, if one did so earlier in the day but if things work out I won’t notice it at all 3 months from now.

One should panic and not take things for granted, as complacency is our enemy. But really, fundamentals are so solid some readjustment due to expected higher inflation because of finally having a self sustaining economy without quantitative easing (and literally this has been the Fed’s position for the last 8 straight years).

The market hates a strong economy, the market loves a strong economy, all depends on when you ask the market. For now it hates a strong economy.

Tinker

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into something else

Cough, PSTG, Cough

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I moved some NVidia so my accounts look like I bought high. In reality I have about half at 147 and half at 247. Even at that, it is like a 6 percent position in my “Not quite Saul” account. That account has about 50 percent cash, Google, CDW, NVidia, Amazon and Village Farms.

That account is negative in all but Amazon. The cash bat the market today. :slight_smile:

However, Google is approaching a must by point, Nvidia is around the “fill out the position” point, CDW hasn’t given much up, but I think CDW may hit 70 or 71 and it would be an add there.

My “Saul” port has no usable cash.

This port is still up since last April.

My recent adds, AYX, NKTR, PSTG, and TLND or all negative, with Talend being the biggest loser at -6.92 percent. The total losses today were about 5 percent.

Since April, this port is up about 50 percent or so.

Considering how many recent moves, this is not a bad showing.

I am waiting on a couple of earnings calls, TLND, NTNX, and AYX before I consider any more changes. My inclination is to sell TLND, but I suspect this is a price anchoring emotion move at this time.

Cheers
Qazulight

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With today’s flash crash

Careful now, we may not be done. A good flash crash ends in a day and with a big drop AND big comeback, we finished at the lows for most indexes (bad) and futures show DOW opening 1000 down Tuesday. Don’t be too confident. If you have cash, maybe move in, in thrids and over time. It is highly unlikely to jump to new highs in a day or day, leaving you sad that you didn’t catch the knife.

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Didn’t actually determine where I stood at end of day. I took a snapshot towards morning and was still up 13% since first trading day of the year.

I wanted to buy more PSTG but had to sell something to raise cash. I wasn’t anxious to part with any of my holdings, but finally decided to lighten LGIH by 50%. Turned out to be a good decision.

Why LGIH? I know Saul advises to not follow his actions too closely, if it all, but frankly I sold because Saul sold. I didn’t completely understand his motivation, but I have enormous respect for his uncanny ability to sense when it’s time to leave. Maybe I should have sold all of it.