An op-ed piece. Should be free. I remember LorenCobb (professor of applied mathematics) on the old TMF predicted that global population would peak (I think around 8B, but don’t recall precisely), and then start to drop. A lot of us questioned that prediction, but hopefully he was correct. Maybe he was, given the op-ed citing declining fertility rates all over the planet.
This will have dramatic economic effects. Declining workforces (maybe the effect of AI/automation won’t be as bad if there are fewer people who need employment?), fewer young people to pay the taxes to support the pensions/SS and healthcare of the older people, less demand (because fewer people), and so forth.
In addition to the uncertainty and financial burden of children, there is also the lifestyle choice. For example, if you have kids then you can’t backpack across Europe, or other extensive travel, both because you have to account for the kids, and you’ll have less money because the kids are expensive. Less time and money for leisure of whatever form you prefer. Etc.
The answer has long been and remains, the PILL, and the transformation od relations expectations of men and women about life and control and “what do we want in our life together” ever after.
The pros also say in years gone by people had large families to compensate for high children death rates. You needed children to care for you in your old age. As survival rates improved birth rates declined.
As to economics in the day of the horse large families provided labor to help on the farm. That becomes less urgent with mechanization of farming. And of course the high cost of raising and educating children is a factor. And women with their own careers.
Birth rate seems to be declining even in third world countries. It’s fair to ask which of these factors apply there.