Who knows. The key question is whether this is a supply or demand problem. Probably some combination of the two. Tesla Berlin was shut down for a couple of weeks due to missiles in the Red Sea disrupting shipping and the arson attack. That certainly disrupted production and also probably deliveries as Tesla’s direct sales system requires a fair amount of coordination between production and delivery. Wouldn’t be surprising if the Berlin shut down caused production to be shifted elsewhere and thereby disrupting delivery schedules. Tesla is also no doubt having issues trying to simultaneously ramp up the Highland Model 3 and Cybertruck as well as battery production.
There is almost certainly a demand issue in China as evidenced by BYD selling only 300,114 full electrics in Q1 2024, about 80,000 fewer than Tesla despite aggressively cutting prices. Meanwhile Tesla has been raising prices in the major markets so it is not clear how concerned they are about demand.
The Tesla Bear argument you can hear from mass media. My Tesla Bull argument stems from announcements from CATL and BYD of a 50% decline in battery prices this year, Tesla gearing up to mass produce the new CATL LFP battery in the US this year that can charge 250 miles in 10 minutes in very cold weather, faith that Tesla will figure out the ramping of the Highland and Cybertruck, support from Nvidia that humanoid bots are likely to be a big deal, the continued growth of the energy storage business, and personal experience with the new version of FSD that is frankly pretty amazing.
That and the fact that having driven a Model Y for a couple of months now I can say without doubt that it is the best car I’ve ever owned. It is hard not to invest in a product that seems so much better than the competition.
The BEVs to date have only seriously contended in the luxury car market and have done well. Tesla alone has about 30% of the US luxury car segment. S-curve sales in the broader market shouldn’t be expected until someone can produce a profitable BEV in the mass market price range that can outperform ICEs. That will not likely happen until the Tesla next-generation vehicle.
BTW, with respect to another thread, here is a nice explanation of the unboxed process. It is not an April fools joke. The potential is real. The issue as with all Tesla endeavors will be in the execution.