First Quarter EV Sales

Isn’t there always going to be something “new and improved”?


Technical improvements that significantly improve range & fast charging are important. Interior design are negligible.

I prefer to buy my cars new and hold for 8-10 years. But my first EV (next year?) might be a lease for this exact reason. Guarantee a resale value and get something better 2-3 years out.

BTW, replying to my own post, Reuters is reporting today that Tesla is not going to be making a $25K car after all. Per Reuters, they will be continuing to develop their robotaxi on the next-gen platform instead.

I do want to mention, again, that Tesla never actually said that they were going to build a $25K car on their next gen platform in the first place - this is just some confirmation that this isn’t their plan.
(Reuters) -Tesla has canceled the long-promised inexpensive car that investors have been counting on to drive its growth into a mass-market automaker, according to three sources familiar with the matter and company messages seen by Reuters.

No announcement from Tesla but article is based on sources.
Global EV leader BYD believes new energy vehicles, including EVs and PHEVs, have entered the “knockout round” with gas-powered cars. BYD plans to more than double its overseas sales this year, as it aims for one million in 2025.

B building nearly all vehicle components, including batteries, in-house, BYD has a major advantage over rivals. BYD can offer low-cost EVs, like the new Seagull, starting under $10,000 (69,800 yuan) and still make a profit.*

Hello UK. BYD might be coming.

Although BYD has yet to confirm plans, UK leaders see a market for the low-cost “Lamborghini Mini” EV.

BYD launched the new Seagull EV in China last month. Its starting price is ultra-affordable starting at $9,700 (69,800), which is about 5% cheaper than the previous model.


This is great for NIO.
But still, only people who follow battery tech will know about it.
And it is only semi-solid state
And they say they will be used in battery swaps, no mention of how long to charge or if new charging infrastructure is needed.
Progress for sure, though.


Yes, but this is clearly an artifact of the specific times, not something to expect long term going forward. There may be a moderate period in which lower new prices drops the price of used, but nothing like the dramatic period Hertz experienced.

Musk: Tesla Robotaxi unveil on 8/8

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I would think anyone seriously looking at an EV would research the various choices. But maybe I’m wrong and most people are dolts.

Maybe. Seems I recall Syke6 bought one quite a while ago, long before the Hertz debacle, and experienced the same thing, except from the positive side (he bought somebody else’s post-depreciation.)

Phone and other computer gizmos are still experiencing it, and if battery improvements keep coming, or BYD starts coming, well it appears that these newfangled horseless carriages may continue speedy depreciation on the used market for some time to come. (I’ve already mentioned the cost of ‘battery replacement’ some years down the road, so I needn’t belabor it here, which I just did.)

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In its community of 15,000 electric vehicles, Recurrent found that only 1.5 percent have had their batteries replaced. It’s important to note that the number does not include recalls, such as the high-profile battery replacements Chevy initiated for the Bolt and Bolt EUV. Still, battery replacements are exceedingly rare for the majority of EVs.

Of course, this is a bit biased since most EVs on the roads are new-ish. But then the batteries all have a minimum of 100K mile warranty

Recurrent’s study also looked at battery replacements by model year and found that EVs with 10 or more years on the road tend to need replacements more often. With almost eight percent of batteries replaced, the 2011 model year was the highest outside the recall years. The data is slightly skewed between 2017 and 2020 because of the massive Chevy and Hyundai recalls.

Some individual model years were worse for specific vehicles. Recurrent found that 8.5 percent of the 2013 Tesla Model S had battery replacements, followed by 7.3 percent for the 2014 model. The 2011 Nissan Leaf landed at 8.3 percent, and the 2012 model reached 3.5 percent.

If you’re reading this and are still worried, there’s good news. Most battery replacements occur under warranty, which is federally mandated to be at least eight years or 100,000 miles for EV powertrain components.

Should also note that the battery tech from ~2010 - 2015 was still quite new and evolving as to how to best cool/condition and ramp charging speeds so that era probably will continue to have the worse case replacement rates.



As a potential user/buyer you have two options, maybe three

  1. Accept the depreciation
  2. Go without
  3. Buy used - I had a really bad experience

Wright Law won’t stop.

The Captain

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Goofy, let me clarify a bit. Yes, I think the on-going technological improvements in EVs will continue to occur for some time, in a way that does not occur with ICE, and that is likely to make EV depreciation greater than ICE, but I think the dramatic shift Hertz experienced is an artifact of current and recent times of more rapid change rather than being a permanent feature of EVs.


Agree and not doing a pilot project before diving in head first.

The Captain