Fixed Income 1970s 1980s

Any funds around or data available for returns during stagflation stretch?

I see this:…

But not sure I trust it!


Simba’s backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]’s_backtesting_spre……

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The only problem: they aren’t ‘real returns’ i.e. inflation adjusted.
The good ole days of fixed income wasn’t really all that good.

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The only problem: they aren’t ‘real returns’ i.e. inflation adjusted.

The bobleheads downloadable spread sheet from above allows full inflation adjusted returns.

It is possible to switch the entire spreadsheet to equate nominal terms to real terms, in other words to compute everything in real (inflation-adjusted) terms.
- to do so, go to the Analyze_Series worksheet and change cell A2 to TRUE. Default should stay as FALSE.

I don’t know how accurate the figures are in intiness’ post, but they support what I recall happening to my
retirement accounts from 73-81. I had 50% in a general stock fund and 50% in fixed income. (We had very few options in retirement accounts back then.)
I left that allocation for about 25 years and during the late 70s my annual report always showed the fixed income outpaced the stock fund, making me wonder why people kept saying stocks outperform fixed income. The chart of the Dow shows it got back to the previous high around 1981, but because the fixed income account had good returns
during the late 70s, my retirement account wasn’t 50-50 until around 1984.
I should note the fixed income part included real estate mortgages, some property, US and corporate
bonds, so the return may have been higher than usual bond funds.

Using the returns listed in intiness’ post, a dollar in SP500 type stocks 1973 became $1.55 in 1981,
about 5% CARG, while using the inflation adjusted returns, it became $0.79, CAGR negative 2.5%,
Inflationary times are not fun.