Fleetmatics #Fail

I had hopes for this one, but it seems the 1YPEG was no good. If someone could check my numbers from annual report, I would appreciate it. This is my first try and not sure I got them right. See would-be write up below.

Fleetmatics
I have been watching this a while and traded it briefly on a breakout, but with the huge sell off by the market, I think it is worth a 1YPEG look. Very strong growth numbers as shown at a meta-level by IBD:

Composite Rating 98 Pass
EPS Rating 99 Pass
RS Rating 92 Pass
Group RS Rating A+ Pass
SMR Rating A Pass
Acc/Dis Rating D- Fail

(Lots of distribution of recently. Bad if you are an intermediate term grown investor, good if you are us)
It is ranked 3rd in its group and its group ranked 12th. CRM is #1 in the group of Computer Software-Enterprse.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=FLTX Finviz says:

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?fltx
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blood-street-stocks-buy-201808…

Fleetmatics Group PLC provides software-as-a-service fleet management solutions for small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) worldwide. The company offers Web-based and mobile application solutions that provide fleet operators with visibility into vehicle location, fuel usage, speed and mileage, and other insights into their mobile workforce.

This is a stock that’s up over 50% YTD. As the market volatility has arrived, shares reversed at their 52-week high above $62 and are coming down to retest the $50 level. This stock was a favorite of hedge funds so the selloff can be chalked up to profit taking rather than anything more sinister. The long term trend line still is intact just south of the current share price.

Way better (Earnings) than XPO, in fact, XPO should buy FLTX. I like the concept of software-as-a-service, meets the razor blade test of ongoing subscriptions. The more a company knows about its fleet, the better it can manage it and save, so this has growth potential.

Investor Relations page for annual/Q reports:
http://ir.fleetmatics.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=251455&p=irol-…

Annual report shows a nice growth in vehicles under subscription which should correlate with revenues.

============================================
The numbers


Revenue Growth						
	March	June	Sept	Dec		
Year	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	% change
2013	38.42 	42.53 	46.31 	50.09 	177.35	
2014	51.90 	55.27 	60.42 	64.00 	231.581	31%
2015	65.47 	68.59 	73.47 	77.07 	284.6	23%
Q4 is est from Yahoo.

EPS Growth (Non-Gaap)						
	March	June	Sept	Dec		
Year	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Year	% change
2013	0.08	0.16	0.15	0.43	0.82	
2014	0.09	0.08	0.21	0.33	0.71	-13%
2015	0.3	0.14	0.22	0.39	1.05	48%
*per diluted share
**Q4 est from Yahoo.
*** 2013Q4 and 2014Q4 had to be derived from annual
as they were not broken out.  Is this typical?		

Year	Revs	YoY %	
2010	64.7		
2011	92.317	43%	
2012	127.451	38%	
2013	177.35	39%	
2014	231.581	31%	
2015	$284.60 	23%	est
*Growth is slowing, but still pretty darn good.

8 Q of EPS (veiw 1)
Q	EPS	Yearly	Growth
Q-8	$0.43 		
Q-7	$0.09 		
Q-6	$0.08 		
Q-5	$0.21 	$0.81 	
Q-4	$0.33 		
Q-3	$0.30 		
Q-2	$0.14 		
Q-1	$0.22 	$0.99 	22%
Next Q	$0.39 		

Trailing Earnings Last Year				Trailing Earnings This Year				
Q-8	Q-7	Q-6	Q-5	Q-4	Q-3	Q-2	Q-1	Next Q
$0.82 	$0.83 	$0.75 	$0.81 	$0.71 	$0.92 	$0.98 	$0.99 	$1.05 
								
TTME Last Year	$0.81 						
TTME This Year	$0.99 						
YoY EPS 	22%						
Price		$50.26 						
TTM PE		50.77						
**1YPEG	2.28**	
So a big fail here.				

$218 	TTM Rev ($M) Last Year
$272 	TTM Rev ($M) This Year
25%	YoY Rev Growth
1940	Market Cap ($M)
7.1 	Price/TTMS

In this case the P/TTMS matches FinViz

IF these numbers are correct I can put them in the Spreadsheets for future reference.

Pete

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