Just wanted to add a personal perspective on FMI. My wife was first diagnosed with a very rare form of neuroblastoma a number of years ago and has had several recurrence, most recently in the Spring of this year. In searching for latest research on treatment options I came across an article in the Oncology Journal, by a lead author and several other coauthors all at Foundation Medicine, outlining targeted therapies based on genomic testing of the tumors.
I took a chance and just contacted the lead author directly at FMI. She was incredibly responsive and very helpful. I was actually shocked that someone in the field would take the time to have ongoing personal communications.
My partner has not used their genomic testing service yet but is very likely to soon. We were very impressed at the possibilities for testing and targeted therapies and FMI as an organization.
Now I’m excited to hear they could be an interesting investment. Not sure why didn’t occur to me although obviously been a little distracted.
Thanks for this idea. Since the stock was up today and pricing for the $47.50 calls was increasing, I purchased January 2018 calls at strikes of $47.50, $50.00, and $52.50 so I was able to spread out my capital invested.
I’m not sure how much validity or damages there are. Fortunately, it’s a false advertising lawsuit not a patent lawsuit dealing with infringement or theft of IP. My guess is that however the case goes its affect will pail in comparison to the Medicare/Medicaid reimbursement decision.
From what I have read FMI is far ahead of all competitors in terms of methodology and genomic data. I think that is key. I think the fact that they are under serious for massive reimbursement is a testament to where they are at vs. competitors.
Sorry the previous link looks like it was behind a paywall but hopefully this one isn’t. It calls it a patent infringement lawsuit and seems to go to the heart of what we are hoping would be approved by Medicare:
I am a retired lawyer who spent his career specializing in patent litigation, though I did not do much in the biotech arena. This appears to be a serious patent case brought by a highly reputable patent firm that litigates more patent cases than any other firm in the country. I think it needs to be taken seriously, particularly since it was just filed, will be next to impossible to handicap since the devil will be in the details that none of us has access to, and probably will take years to resolve. So, you have to assume it presents a high risk to the FMI business at this point. More than that I cannot say at this point.
I saw a suit on false advertising, but did not initially see a patent case. I missed that. If you get a chance to dig into the details, I’d love to hear your thoughts. Thanks.
This Citron thesis seems to have a lot more logic behind it than the Hubspot, Shopify, and Ubiquiti “theses”. If Citron is correct in this case, it may be partially due to the efficacy of FMI’s testing in addition to CellMax Life. Either way, it is an interesting space to look at.
Well, looking back at this idea, buying shares would been more than a double now with shares about $103, options percentage gains even more, for those who understand them enough to be comfortable using them
I (only slightly) sadly haven’t held any FMI options positions for a few months now, after selling the Aug $75 call position for around $14.00 or $15.00 after buying at $6.40 (per another old post of mine on this board). So, I could have had more than a double from then… if I had endured a pretty huge drop in the interim.
Regardless, this was a great one to bring to the board, and bulwnkl is a poster to pay close attention to if am idea is presented (see also: Kite, which I missed before it was bought out).
volfan84
No present FMI position and no plans to initiate one in the near future
I am still holding my shares and options. I purchased $50.00 calls (January 2018 expiration) when Bulwnkl initially presented FMI in November 2017. I then added $75 calls (also January 2018 expiration) in December 2017. I exercised 60% of the $50 calls into shares and sold the other 40%; the $75 calls expired worthless. In total, I netted a 14% profit on those calls.
I set up a $67.50 synthetic long (8/17/18 expiration) in January 2018, for a net credit of $0.80/share; that position is worth $33.17/share. I am considering selling some of those calls to cover the purchase costs of exercising the remaining calls at $67.50. I expect the puts to expire worthless in August.
Of course I am still holding shares acquired at a strike of $50.00 purchased in January.
I (only slightly) sadly haven’t held any FMI options positions for a few months now, after selling the Aug $75 call position for around $14.00 or $15.00 after buying at $6.40 (per another old post of mine on this board). So, I could have had more than a double from then… if I had endured a pretty huge drop in the interim.
Circling back, guess this is an instance where I could have been better off buying shares at about $50 when the idea was first presented fo the board…or at least held the Aug $75 call position longer. That would be worth about $37 + $25 = $62.00 per contract now.
volfan84
No FMI position, congrats to all on the board who still had one
Darn. Was hoping FMI would turn into the gatekeeper for IO. I re-bought at 73.60 in late April so almost a double but guess in the back of my mind I figured Roche would buy the rest eventually. Now I know how Ant feels as many of his picks eventually get purchased.
First you bring us KITE, then you bring us FMI. I know that’s a small sample size but what a brilliant track record. I have profited handsomely from both. Thank you for the initial sharing and also the education along the way!!!
Thanks for the kind words volfan84. I have been focusing on my daughter’s high school graduation and mentoring her InvenTeam project so I haven’t been very active. I am sitting in a MIT dorm room getting ready for a presentation as I write.
Anyway, FMI was another high probability, binary event that was definitely worth a stock purchase after the insurance approval. I wish they would have remained independent, but can’t complain about my return on this.
I am very appreciative of this board and the efforts made to share stock ideas. I think the best way to say thank you is for me to provide an idea once in a while.
That said, I don’t want to contribute to the congestion so I try to limit what I post to things that I think are absolutely helpful. I am glad this helped some of you.
I have been focusing on my daughter’s high school graduation and mentoring her InvenTeam project so I haven’t been very active. I am sitting in a MIT dorm room getting ready for a presentation as I write.
