FOMO and the path forward

Watching ROKU pop a bit more today has emboldened my view of buying broken toys aka stocks at 52 wk lows.

It can’t be any stock, obviously…I have to like something about the company’s prospects.
But with earning season about to hit for most stocks I watch, I think there are some basic outcomes I will experience:

  1. FOMO - stocks will continue to rise as market rises in BMR
  2. extra FOMO - individual stocks have positive post-ER pops, further getting away from me
  3. stocks suffer big post-ER drops, offering a buying opp

#3 is what I am watching for.
However, #1 can mean that the stock will have moved so far off their 52 wk low by the time the ER drop occurs, that the ER drop doesn’t take them to new lows. That will be a bit of a conundrum. I will likely play it by ear.

ONDS is dropping. Totally story-stock. Worth a flyer? Dunno. Maybe tiny one.
But something like ONDS, at this stage, feels more like a trade than an investment.

I think ROKU and UPST could be long-term winners at current levels. Could go much lower first though.

I bought another ROKU device yesterday. The Sony android smart O/S was ok, but everything just feels clunky compared to the super-easy layout of Roku O/S. They do have the best product, imo. Xfinity also gave me their “Flex” device when I cancelled my cable service. It was just ok. So since that was the only tv in the house without ROKU, I finally just got a device for it. Chose the Ultra for the Dolby Atmos/Vision…will see if I notice a difference.

I think UPST is screwed in short-term due to economy, but if all loans are down, then the measure of success is still whether Upstart provides better loan outcome predictions. If answer is yes, then Upstart stays in business and/or thrives, especially as economy improves.

Trying to stay zen. Using the power of my mind to keep this as a BMR and not just the market never looking back.

Hey - this is all just my metaverse, and you are all living in it.

Dreamer

5 Likes

PINS up huge.

Pretty sure we all heard that story before.

Fool me once…

So an easy prediction for this week at least, is that we see oversized reactions to ERs in both directions. But any huge pops will fade and retrace in the following weeks, I predict.

This is the last round of ERs before numbers start to show any weakness due to economy, and forecasts could potentially turn sour.

I still expect some bad numbers and bad forecasts, but it is evident that some businesses are leading indicators and others are lagging.

Our overly simplistic view is to rate them equal in the same timeframe and say “see…DDOG is much better investment at $105 due to their growth than ROKU is at $62 due to their struggles”.

Speaking of DDOG, I happened to notice F stock up. So I should revisit that F vs DDOG poll soon. In fairness to DDOG, will wait until after their ER, and then check again in a couple months.

Dreamer

So an easy prediction for this week at least, is that we see oversized reactions to ERs in both directions.

Seeing a bit of that today, but only up, from my small sample size.

FOMO here.

Nibbled DDOG and added new trade position is SQ (SQ reports tomorrow).

KC