Fresh all time highs today

Gambler :slight_smile:

Yup.
Definitely in the “do as I say, not as I do” category : )
Of course, I don’t use high leverage for ALL my position. Just at the edges, when the odds seem good.
I have plain old stock, too.

But occasionally, when things are cheap, I’m willing to make a wager.
Would you buy a little extra stock at (say) 1.25 times book mostly using money borrowed at (say) 6% interest rate for 2.5 years?
Interest rate fixed, the loan can’t be called, no margin debt needed.
The odds seem pretty good that the ending value per share will be higher then, and also reasonably good that the valuation multiple will be higher at some time before then.
The “good things” outcome is the product four numbers: the real value rise, the valuation expansion, the size of the position, and the leverage built into the position.
The “bad things” outcome is mainly that you lose all that “interest” you prepaid, for no benefit.
Though of course bad things could happen to the company, as with any equity investment.

The usual disadvantage is that you might have to wait maybe another two years, at an unknown interest rate, for the wager to pan out.
And therefore “feed” the position with a bit more cash to pay that interest.
Though, oddly, if the firm goes bust then you lose less than if you’d bought the stock or taken out a long term bank loan to buy the stock.

But yeah, gambling. I’m a regular Nicky Arnstein.

Jim

4 Likes