From SHOP investor relations page

Investor Relations
October 5, 2017

Entrepreneurship is on the decline, and Shopify is committed to fighting this trend.

Shopify’s growing community of entrepreneurs includes makers, creators and innovators, from students trying to pay for school to merchants who have successfully scaled their businesses.

Shopify has always strived to take the path that leads to more entrepreneurs by designing its platform to remove the technical, operational, and financial barriers to enable anyone, anywhere, to build, grow, and scale a business.

Some numbers on Shopify helping businesses start, succeed and scale:

Every 90 seconds a store using Shopify makes their first sale

A LOT of people buy from stores that use Shopify: over 131 million consumers have bought from a store using Shopify in the last 12 months

Stores using Shopify generated $10.7 billion in gross merchandise volume in the first half of 2017

We vigorously defend our business model and stand resolutely behind our mission and the success of our merchants.

https://investors.shopify.com/Home/default.aspx

20 Likes

Nice! Taking the high road. CEO Tobias Luetke is a class act.

Chris

1 Like

Nice! Taking the high road. CEO Tobias Luetke is a class act.

Chris

I agree, Chris, was nice seeing the response that didn’t even mention the short attack or Citron/Left by name, just stated facts about Shopify’s business, their goals, and mission.

GMV

2015: 7.7 billion
2016: 15.3 billion

1st half 2017: 10.7 billion

Haven’t had a look, but anyone know off the top of their head, is there significantly more volume in the 2nd half of the year than the first half?
If it’s the same, we come to 21.4 billion
That’s only a 40% growth. Quite a big drop from 100% growth for the previous 2 years each. Really we’re hoping for 30 billion aren’t we?

Haven’t had a look, but anyone know off the top of their head, is there significantly more volume in the 2nd half of the year than the first half?

Here are the past 6 quarters of GMV in $B:


 Q1'16  $2.70 
 Q2'16  $3.40 
 Q3'16  $3.80 
 Q4'16  $5.50 
 Q1'17  $4.80 
 Q2'17  $5.80 

Last year the sequential jump from Q2 to Q3 was modest and the sequential jump from Q3 to Q4 was more significant. Then from Q4 to Q1 there was a sequential decline.

Chris

2 Likes

Another way to look at these numbers:

 *Q1'16  $2.70* 
 *Q2'16  $3.40* 
 *Q3'16  $3.80* 
 *Q4'16  $5.50* 
 *Q1'17  $4.80* 
 *Q2'17  $5.80*

Regarding 2016, 40% of GMV came in the first half of the year and 60% in the second half.

Now there’s nothing saying that will happen again in 2017, but if it did, it would mean approx $10 in the first half of the year and $15 in the second half, for a total of $25.

1 Like

Chris, extrapolating from the GMV numbers, that should put, if the same ratios hold, GMV for Q4 in excess of $10 billion.

Tinker

Yes, extrapolating with the same % increases gives you 6.5 and 9.4 billion. Total 26.5 billion and a 72% increase. Not bad. I guess retail is seasonal with a large number of sales coming in for Christmas, and I would think this holds true for Shopify’s merchants as well.

We can beat around the bush all we want on this, but when it comes to trying to valuate SHOP all we can do now is wait for each earnings call. Come November 1st we’ll be much more informed with the numbers to decide whether growth is slowing or not. I increased my position.

3 Likes