Fubo’s valuation: price action vs numbers


First off, thank you so much for all contributors as my learning has increased many folds just reading and listening folks on what and how various ways of trying to make sense of valuation, whether future projections are priced in and how further the runway may be compared relative to others in the same sector and so on.

As many here, I like subscription economy and Fubo is absolutely one of many. Wondering what others think: whether the pullback is overextended?! Let’s say, Q1 come out as not good, would the current price already too low at this point? That is exactly what I am thinking but biased as I have to many “thinking”, and “believing” in my statements, the truth is it has been going down!! Overall, not selling yet, but totally concerned after todays drop and thinking to add the other 1/2 of my position some time next week.

Some numbers I pulled out from Yahoo finance shows

  • Float 145.1 million
  • Shares shorted 3/15 34.76 million, short ratio 3X
  • ratio of shares owned by insiders,institutions with the rest looks balanced

I like the revenue and earnings. Not sure if there are any negatives elsewhere but quarter to quarter and yoy are great. YF records “quarterly” revenue growth is at ~120%

The best positive here is the World Cup is end of this year and digital marketing and advertisement space has been crazy so that should contribute well for end-of-the-year numbers

Not understanding negative ebita which is over 317M. The problem may be negative margins and our debt those also showing negative, or price action for this week may be put/call spread ratio?!?!, my feeling is that there have been so much extremes on either end so I am hoping(!!) it is a matter of time we move to the other extreme

I’m not sure what the quarterly yearly burn rate is but there are 530 employees reported with 380 million cash in balance sheet!! Debt is at 363M. Debt to equity ratio is 54. Book value is 4.43

My prime figures are Yoy and qoq revenue, earning ratios and and if there is positive cash flow.

2020 R: 217.75m E: -570.44m
2021 R: 638.35m E: -382.84m

That’s a ~3x!!! R in one year!!! while Negative E has been slashed

Looking at last quarter 231,-111; and projecting off they remain sane if not growing, which is a bad assumption however I am thinking the numbers will be anything but improved, so relying on last reported Q here would conservative estimate 924,-444m

There is both positive and negative here though, the positive is: there is a huge jump from 156 previous quarter to 231!!! Fabulous!!! The concern is there is a huge gap so whether q1 will meet or come short.

What are your thoughts, especially if you have been following it?

Thanks all in advance!!

Wealth and power to everyone ?