Fulgent Covid Revenue

I think Fulgent management just told investors how much Covid income they will report this quarter. It was slipped into a press release about a new antibody test for at-home use. I don’t know that it will reveal the future stock price any better but at least we can attempt to project their revenue and earnings for the quarter. In the press release Fulgent announced they had done over 12 million Covid tests since the beginning of the pandemic. (https://ir.fulgentgenetics.com/news-releases/news-release-de… ). They had done 9,563,000 prior to this quarter (https://ir.fulgentgenetics.com/static-files/700b9e05-1fdc-4e… - page 23) meaning they did approximately 2,500,000 Covid tests this quarter. At an ASP of $95 per test we can conclude they did approximately $237 million in Covid revenue this quarter compared to $128 million in Covid revenue last quarter. Assuming they will beat on the Core estimates, they could do approximately $35 million in Core revenue this quarter for total revenue of $272 million. From this we can conclude they will probably double their earnings from last quarter and earn approximately $5/share. (This is a beat of 50% over current estimate) I obviously have no idea how investors will value these earnings, especially since Covid testing will probably go down enough next quarter to put them back closer to quarter 2 income and profit. I have done a spreadsheet on my expectations for the last two quarters of this year and for 2022, 2023, 2024 but it is highly speculative. Suffice it to say that I don’t anticipate their profits reaching my estimated 15.43/share profit estimate for this year again until 2024. I do believe that as they demonstrate high growth, they will achieve multiples of revenue and profit closer to industry averages. (They are currently selling for approximately 2.5 times my projected revenue for 2021 and approximately 5 times my projected earnings for 2021.)

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