Germany's Dilemna

The economy is in trouble:

US defense shield seems to be lifting.

Germany’s fear of Russia pushes for defense spending.

Will that extra spending be funded by debt or cutting of social programs & pensions.

And regarding the defense of the nation.

While the threat of Russia grows, 72% of Germans doubt army can defend country, poll finds

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/08/04/half-germans-would-not-fight-country/
Over half of Germans would not fight for their country

Survey finds 59 per cent of respondents ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ unwilling to take up arms

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From last month…

Germany’s coalition government has agreed a sweeping package of welfare cuts worth €38.3 billion by 2030, stripping back the country’s health system and pension guarantees to free up funds for military spending…

The most contentious measure removes free health insurance coverage for non-contributing spouses. Under the new rules, spouses who do not pay into the statutory system will be required to contribute a minimum of 2.5% of their partner’s insured income…

Co-payments for medicines and hospital stays will also rise. Changes to the funding rules are expected to place additional strain on the statutory health funds, known as the Krankenkassen. In total, the austerity package is projected to save public health insurance funds €19.3 billion next year, rising to €38.3 billion by 2030, with reductions focused on spending at clinics, GP surgeries and on pharmaceutical costs.

The health cuts are not the only blow to German social security. Merz has stated that the state pension will be reformed into what he described as “basic cover” for old age and will no longer be sufficient to maintain living standards over time.

DB2

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Pearl Harbor and 911

Events matter in democracies. Polls do not.

A major factor in Germany is high energy costs. They hoped to rely on cheap natural gas from Russia while they built green energy capacity. Loss of Russian gas means they must buy much more expensive LNG. And now high oil prices.

This is causing major changes in the manufacturing economy. Major chemical plants are for sale as they can no longer compete in world markets. Or cheap imports are available from China. Ditto auto manufacture. Luxury models are expected to survive but imports may be the future for the rest. Stellantis has announced plan to distribute Chinese EVs in Europe.

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True.
But demographics matter too.
Median age in Germnay-45.7 years

Let me rephrase that.
Loss of US taxpayer provided “policeman security” via NATO n naval sea routes means they must pay for their own protection.

This is causing major changes in their economic choices for where they spend their government Deutschmarks.

Or euros.

When Uncle Sugar stops the sugar … Gotta start looking for your boot straps?

:hiking_boot:
ralph

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That is certainly a factor. At the same time, IIRC, German industrial production was already declining for 4-5 years before the Ukraine war cut off Russian nat gas.

DB2

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The deindustrialization is sensationalism.

I am concerned with the US having a factory build out policy. Taxes.

Germany is still dependent on coal, natural gas and petroleum for most of its energy needs. It was more important to shut down all of the nuclear power plants.

Above chart from the IEA, link here. Renewables are still only a small portion of the total energy supply.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
As a result, Germany will most likely miss its 2030 climate targets.

https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/cop/germany-set-miss-2030-climate-goals-independent-body-warns-2026-05-18/

From the Reuters link:

BERLIN, May 18 (Reuters) - Germany is expected to miss its 2030 climate goals and likely emit more carbon dioxide than previously thought, an ​independent advisory body said on Monday, contradicting the findings of the ‌government’s main climate authority.

And:

“In our assessment, the programme’s actual reduction effect is likely to be significantly lower than assumed ​by the German ​government,” Schlomann said.

According ⁠to data from the environment agency, greenhouse gas emissions remained almost flat in 2025 as a decline in ​industry and energy sectors was offset by increases in ​construction and ⁠transport. The council also indicated forestry and land use as problematic areas.

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

_ Pete

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Germany probably has the same problems with manufacturing we do. Declining birth rates reduce available labor, increase dependence on immigration and give rising labor costs. Increased competition from imports especially from Asia. And now rising energy costs.

No surprise that manufacturing struggles to deal with new challenges. Robots is an obvious answer but automation replacing humans is a sensitive issue especially in Europe where unions are strong.

Considering the fact that Ukraine is doing with sooo much less, I don’t fear for Germany.

Ukrainians probably felt that way too once. Below linked article states as much:

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/10758216.2023.2277767

It is easy to be nonchalant about an aggressor until they are killing your family and friends.

We experienced this as well after 9/11. Military and civilian volunteerism surged.

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The same is true for all G20 countries because of the oil needed for transportation.

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In the EU transportation makes up a bit over a third of CO2 emissions. The US just under 30%. China comes in at about 12% and India at 10%.

DB2

German service union Verdi is organizing protests against a round of cuts announced by the German government
The plan is aimed at reducing the burden on health insurance providers that could mean higher contributions

EU = 774M
Germany= 137M
China = 1.05B
USA = 1.67B

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How do you explain Europe being higher than the U.S. I read the links. Did I miss it?

Europe is smaller with cities closer together. Better mass transit. Logic says they should be more efficient than we are. Why not?

You misread my post. EU is not higher than USA.
EU = 774 Million
USA = 1.67 Billion

EU has 2X the population of USA.