I’m finding the economic ‘signals’ coming from various sources confusing:
Japanese government bond (JGB) yields surged on Wednesday, with long-term borrowing costs climbing to their highest levels in nearly three decades, as investors grew increasingly concerned about persistent inflation and the government’s expansive spending plans, according to Reuters.
China still buying gold:
Gold prices fall to $4k
https://www.bullionbypost.co.uk/gold-price/gold-price-today/
Macroeconomic signals and “whispers” are often contradictory and confusing, but what’s going on remains the same.
“Stocks go up and down, but the money you lose to fees, commissions, trading costs and TAXES is gone forever.”
intercst
The money isn’t gone, it just changed owners. 
DB2
The Japanese bond market is giving out signals that the market is under stress. Central banks are buying gold in large amounts and yet gold prices are falling.
Puzzling to say the least.
@Divitias I was thinking about this since I’m a gold bug like you.
Here is the recent history of Chinese gold buying.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has engaged in a consistent, multi-wave strategy of purchasing bullion:
2000–2003: The PBOC initiated modern, steady accumulation, significantly increasing reserves to around 1,054 tons by 2003.
2015: China disclosed another major buying period, revealing it had added approximately 600 tons over the preceding six years.
2018–2019: The PBOC resumed purchasing as trade tensions and tariffs with the United States escalated.
Late 2022–2024: Following global sanctions against Russian reserve assets, China embarked on an aggressive 18-month buying spree.
2025–2026: After a brief pause, China resumed massive gold accumulation, setting record reserve levels to de-dollarize and hedge against financial sanctions.
Prices are set at the margin, the result of supply and demand. This chart shows how the Chinese buying pushed up the price of gold after periods of stability.
I think what happened over the past year is that international speculators noticed the rise in the gold price and jumped on the bandwagon. That’s what caused the characteristic bubble shape in the curve - a sudden spike in early 2026.
The Chinese aren’t stupid. They probably said, “Whoa! We don’t want to pay bubble prices!” and backed away. When the Chinese stopped buying the bubble popped. I think they will wait until the price falls and the supply/ demand balance returns to a more normal level. Then they will start buying again, but will probably be more cautious to avoid another bubble.
Since Nixon closed the U.S. gold window in 1972 there have been several run-ups followed by a similar bubble, followed by a similar subsidence. But the price never subsided back to the pre-run-up price. This coincided with consumer price inflation and decline in the USD purchasing power.
Wendy
