GLBE reports…

“We finished the year with the strongest quarter in the company’s history, continuing our consistent trend of delivering growth and strong execution, with $82.7 million of revenues in Q4 and $245.3 million for the full year, delivering roughly 80% year-on-year growth in 2021, coupled with further gross margin expansion,” said Amir Schlachet, Founder and CEO of Global-e. “We believe that the opportunity ahead of us remains massive, and that we are well positioned to capture it. We enter 2022 with our teams around the globe firing on all cylinders and will continue to execute on all fronts to drive strong top-line growth, while leveraging economies of scale and continuing to generate cash. This is reflected in our guidance for 2022, as we plan for 70% top line growth this year.”

Full year 2021 was 80% growth finishing at $245m

They forecasted 72% at top of their range, actually, for full year 2022. Assuming they beat and raise every Q this year, so growth likely staying near 80% if not higher. This would be organic growth, plus their integration with Shopify finally kicking in here in 2022.

Currently up 12% in afterhours. They were down on day in sympathy largely with Shopify, so interesting to see their forecast was strong whereas Shopify got knocked due to weaker guidance. This makes sense when you realize the additional business gained from Shopify is all additive to GLBE previous and already robust business without Shopify.

Notes on progress
Strategic partnership with Shopify on track to deliver the new native integration
Recently met additional important milestones in the technical development roadmap, gearing up towards the full launch of the new integration
Meanwhile, continued to onboard new Shopify-based merchants, of various sizes, on the existing 3rd-party integration including, among others Fenty Beauty and Fenty Skin, Yeezy-GAP and NVGTN mentioned above, as well as the direct-to-consumer healthcare apparel and lifestyle brand FIGS and the McLaren Formula-1 team’s online merchandize store

Closed the Flow Commerce transaction, aimed at enhancing our support for emerging brands as well as our ability to provide our solutions through channel partners in white-label form
Welcomed the Flow team into the Global-e family, and went full steam ahead with integrating teams and capabilities
Established a new Channels and Emerging Brands division
Continued joint work with Shopify towards launching the first white-label channel solution

Long GLBE.



Adding official release link:…

Two things I noticed:

  • Q4 YoY revenue growth is only +54%. But they guided the next quarter to have YoY +63% and full year +70%.
  • Gross margin kept expanding, from last quarter of 38.5% to this quarter 39.5%.

The one business statement I found interesting in the release was this regarding Shopify integration:

  • Recently met additional important milestones in the technical development roadmap, gearing up towards the full launch of the new integration

It sounds like they haven’t fully integrated with Shopify yet!

For reference, this is their past revenue numbers


Yearly revenue

2018 38
2019 65
2020 136, +80%
2021 245, +80%
2022 416, +70% (midpoint guidance)

Quarterly revenue

           Q1    Q2   Q3     Q4
2020       19    29   33     53
2021       46    57   59.1   82.7
2022guide  75 (+63%)

Gross margin

       Q1   Q2     Q3     Q4
2021   33    36   38.6    39.5

My take

If they hit the target of $416M revenue, the forward P/S at the aftermarket market cap at 5.9B would be around 14 by the end of 2022.

I invested in them because I found their business model to be compelling but I had my doubts on their revenue growth durability. Since they are closer to a payment processor company (revenue on take rate from transactions), it was surprising to me that their multiples haven’t gotten crushed like fintech companies.

The 2022 guidance of 70% places GLBE’s revenue growth near the top of my holdings. I am keeping my 6% position for now and may expand to 7-8%.


An adjustment from my previous post.

If they hit the target of $416M revenue, the forward P/S at the aftermarket market cap at 5.9B would be around 14 by the end of 2022.

Since their margin is only around 40% and much less than most SaaS companies that are boasting 60-75%, instead of forward P/S of 14, using 40% gross margin would place them at $180M gross profit and forward P/GP of 32. Not cheap at all.

This is still very high for a fintech company. For comparison, SQ currently has over $4B gross profit yearly run rate and a market cap of around $62B, so P/GP of 15 and maybe at 12 if you forecast +30% growth. So the market hasn’t been giving them fintech valuation at all but closer to SaaS.

Anyway, I’m not investing on their valuation but their business model and I’m happy to see that they maintain strong revenue growth.


I have concern on:

  1. Net loss in the fourth quarter of 2021 was ($22.5) million, compared to a net profit of $4.3 million in the year-ago period — it isn’t improving ?

  2. Gross margin in the fourth quarter of 2021 was 39.5% — it is improving over last year. But is it still too low ?


How did gross margin help AMPL?

Business is growing.

The net loss was clearly stated in PR as tied to warrants given to Shopify. Shopify is a part owner now.

Removing warrants, they grew profits.

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Hi Tivoli

The Q4 net losses were due to the amortisation of the Shopify warrants. Otherwise it would have been over $6.9m in profit so >50% increase.

The GM is low but improving hand over fist. What’s more interesting is that the higher margin SaaS like business segment - Services as opposed to the lower margin Fulfilment segment is the faster growing segment at 73% growth which should pull the growth rate up as Services ($35.5m) overtakes Fulfilment ($47.2m).

Net Retention rate is 152%.

They did have an explanation on the compares with last year affecting this quarter’s growth.

Overall take rate is ~16% .

Guidance is a bounce back in growth rate for next Q and the coming year ahead.

When I first saw the headlines I was disappointed and could’t figure out the after hours reaction in the share price, but the more I read the more I like what I am seeing here.



My 19 tweet thread for $GLBE has screenshot for price targets by analysts before yesterday’s earnings call. Also charts and more:

1) $GLBE earnings amc 16 FEB 22 resulted in $GLBE up +20.83% on the last sale @ $44.60

Profit: +.01 CENT per share
Met earnings expectations
+6.60% rBEAT
Earnings Growth: +63.89% yoy
Revenue Growth: +54.40% yoy
Gross margin: +600 basis points
Raised Guidance +17.95% (avg)

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Read through the earnings call transcript and some additional things I found

#1 The revenue guidance is not organic

Flow was acquired in November and its revenue was added to next year’s guidance. CFO says it accounts for 5%. If we take Flow’s number out from the $416M guidance, then they are guiding $395M, or +61% organic revenue growth. Not as good as I originally thought.

It was unclear in the report whether Flow’s 2021 Q4 number was added to this quarter’s result.

#2 Merchant % by outbound region

In their 6-K you can find the breakdown of revenue by merchant outbound region from 2021

               Revenue         Pct
UK                    80           59%
US                    34           25%
EU                    21           16%
Israel                 1            1%
Other                 --            --

So there’s nothing in APAC at all and most of their partners are still in the UK!

It looks like they still have a long way to go expanding in the US and other EU countries. They said they just started an office in Japan which I personally am most curious about how far they can go - I buy stuff from Japanese websites all the time but they only way to ship to US is using a mail forwarding service like Tenso.

#3 Why don’t merchants onboard all countries at once?

In one of the analyst’s questions:

Analyst: In particular like large brands you cant’s just rollout in every market with you at one time. Right? They have to do it over a period of years. Can you just talk about why that is?

CEO: It’s not that they can’t, theoretically they can. And to be honest, some of them do. It’s more a question of choice. And in many cases kind of their internal setups…

…The bigger brands typically do put in place kind of a gradual rollout plan and sometimes it’s because they have local representatives or local distributors in certain markets where they want to run these contracts off before they internalize these lanes. In our cases, they have local setups underground of their own. And the first want to start with the markets where they don’t have such setups and later on as they progress, rollout these markets as well.

In other words, their bigger partners do aim to onboard all regions eventually, but they prefer running out of their current contracts with local providers first.

They also talked about why they have a business:

CEO: There were more than 30 changes in regulation cross border only in the last 12 months across different markets. So this overtime convinces merchants the time it takes to adjust the investment and the know-how of how to do it efficiently does not make sense doing it in-house, and we see more interest coming our way out of that.

My take

I still find their business compelling. But given that the organic growth is guided at around +60% instead of +70%, I will maintain my 5% position and not adding more.


As I’ve posted before, I got into Global-e within the first minute of its IPO last May, convinced by the enthusiasm of Brian Feroldi for their S-1 at TMF. I panic sold it for a good profit, along with everything else related to e-commerce or social-commerce when SNAP took a dive last October. But when I saw it so beaten down this year, I got back in and it is now a 5.4% position for me (and growing organically today!).

As you know, I rely on others like TMF analysts and those here to pick through the numbers. But if those have a green light, my overlay is the quality of management, ESG, and both the need and quality of the product/service. As an Israeli company, management is hard to assess apart from their execution and any interviews (including conference calls) I can find, and is therefore backward looking.

So my thesis for Global-e has been anchored on the fact that I can’t imagine how any merchant does business in the 21st century without what they offer. And what they offer is so complex and such a headache for merchants, I also can’t imagine even wanting to do it in-house. Add in that they just acquired their only real competition in the space (Flow), and it seems like blue skies to me unless there are management issues hiding under the hood.

I was pleased by the conference call last night and note that, like with Upstart, they could explain a complex product clearly, even though none of them are native English speakers. That checks a management box for me that others (cough…Spencer Skates…cough) don’t.

And the clearest articulation of my thesis for them came in the Q&A, which is in bold in the question I’ve copied below.

John Godin – Needham and Company – Analyst

Great. And next, just wondering if you could talk about Europe specifically a little bit, highlight maybe any of the demand trends you’re seeing there. I’m curious if you’re seeing some kind of an additional migration of companies who previously were not operating in Europe on your platform now migrating on given the VAT changes. Thank you.

Nir Debbi – Co-Founder and President

Yes. We do continue to see an increased demand for our services. As the complexity of trading cross-border in general continues to increase, it’s not only the change in Europe with the IOSS. Regime now applies also to cross-border sales, not only the distance selling within Europe.

But – and I can say it because we just did a summary for our clients recently. There were more than 30 changes in regulation cross-border only in the last 12 months across different markets. So this, over time, convinces merchants that the time it takes to adjust the investment and the know-how of how to do it efficiently does not make sense doing it in-house, and we see more interest coming our way out of that. In Europe, specifically, based on the IOSS, we do see more interest from cross-border retailers looking into how they can leverage globally and avoid the need for registration as well as enjoy additional capabilities related to international duty drawbacks and other, I would say, more complicated processes that Global-e enables.

More than 30 changes in cross-border regulation just in the past 12 months! Global-e handles that for you. Only merchant masochists would opt to deal with that level of change themselves.

Further, they pointed out that one of the pandemic tailwinds that helped them in the past year was the move to selling direct to consumer. That trend, they said, was here to stay and they see no slowdown in that at all. Here is that exchange:

Koji Ikeda – Bank of America Merrill Lynch – Analyst

Great. Hi Amir, Hi Nir. Thanks for taking my question. I had a question on guidance here.

So over the past few days, we’ve recently heard some other e-commerce companies where maybe the outlook was a little bit less certain. And here you are with confidence giving '22 guidance, not only confidence giving it but really a nice number here at 70%. So wanted to dig in a little bit on what you’re seeing out there, hearing out there from your customers that is giving you all that confidence to give a '22 guide right now.

Nir Debbi – Co-Founder and President

Yes. So thank you for the question. This is Nir. Basically, we have seen with our clients, giving priority into investment in direct-to-consumer cross-border.

And we’ve seen it with multiple of our clients, opening more lanes and investing more in penetration into new geographies, which expected to continue going into 2023. In parallel, 2021 was a record year for us in finding new business and new logos in, and a lot of this effect would come into play only in 2022 and would contribute to this accelerated growth. We do see, as we spoke about in previous calls, a lot of the effects of COVID that are here to stay. So the need for brands and the desire to go direct to consumer was accelerated through the pandemic, and this state does not change.

There might be certain relief with shops being open. However, the trend of brands, especially larger brands, moving into a direct-to-consumer on a global basis is not stopping, and we see it in our pipeline. And this gives us, I would say, quite a lot of confidence building our planning into 2022 and onwards.

I might add a bit–it’s not quite at the allocation I had before my panic sell and it’s still well off it’s ATH, but I need to see gross margins continuing to improve and have another quarter or two to add substantially.



It was unclear in the report whether Flow’s 2021 Q4 number was added to this quarter’s result.

I’m pretty sure that they said it closed after year end so it should be no.

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