This is getting preposterous, especially given the buybacks.
At the valuation multiple implied by today’s price of about $397000, (about $264.50 per B),
average one year forward returns for observations since 2008 have averaged about inflation + 24%.
I don’t expect that figure, but I expect something nice.
That’s using purely my “two and a half column” metric which applies a big haircut to big positions I worry might be overvalued.
So it is not confused by recent high prices for Apple or Coke and their effect on mark-to-market equity.
And therefore not really affected by any imminent (and presumably transient) drop in book per share.
I’m now up to about as much Berkshire as I ever hold as a percentage of my portfolio.
Which is quite a bit : )
And yes, odds are the price will go a bit lower. Usually nobody nails the bottom except by luck.
Jim