Good macro economic world forecast

The host is Canadian but the first half of Zeihan’s presentation is about the whole world. Zeihan relies mostly on population.

Interesting negative comment about robots, ‘They do the job but don’t consume.’ Would it be the end of Keynesian economics and back to Say’s Law?

Macroeconomists over the last two centuries have often divided into two groups: those who argue that supply is the most important determinant of the size of the macroeconomy while demand just tags along, and those who argue that demand is the most important factor in the size of the macroeconomy while supply just tags along.

Seen from the point of view of the Science of Complexity and personal observation, the Economy is much more complex than either Keynes Law or Say’s Law. My take:

Like every complex system, the economy is an evolving learning landscape where each player has a goal and adapts to the changes of the landscape (the economy) as it evolves. The government has one set of goals, producers a different one, and consumers a third one and among each group there are personal preferences and resources.

In effect, all the players are influencing the Law of Supply and Demand with their own resources.

• Governments produce nothing but can print money. This money buy goods in the short term at the cost of inflation because no value has been added to the economy.

• Producers manipulate the Law of Supply and Demand with pricing strategies. Say’s Law says that production creates its own demand but that is not strictly true. Tesla is a good current example, while production was constrained Tesla increased prices to maximize their output. Once production exceeded demand Tesla lowered prices to sell all het can produce. In addition, Tesla adjusted prices to take advantage of the new EV incentives.

• Consumers are the most diverse group and respond to both government policy and corporate pricing strategies with whatever buying power they might have which is also quite a complex subject.

Each group affects how the other two groups behave as well as how other members of their own group behave.

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Zeihan on Canada - The Full Conversation

Sounds like the US is the economy to bet on…

The Captain


Huh. I guess the interstate highways just fell out of the sky without help from anyone. And the internet just appeared when Tinkerbell waved her fairy wand and made it magically appear.

The 50% poverty rate of our society pre-1930 was a drag on productivity, not to mention human endeavor, and with it now at 10% we have more consumers than ever expanding the economy to a height unimagined by our ancestors. How did that happen, again?

I must read up on the history of satellites, I thought it was NASA and government that put them up there, improving communication, weather forecasting, and making logistics more efficient. Perhaps they just flew in from Jupiter while I wasn’t looking?

You learn so many interesting thing on these pages.

Governments produce nothing but can print money.

Good to know.


Govt establishes a stable means of exchange through the use of money. Because the economy is reasonably stable over time, businesses are willing to invest over a longer time frame because historic wild short-term swings in the economy are mostly eliminated.

Production does not create demand. If it did, then no business would ever have surplus inventory. Demand is what drives production.


Captain debt as a percentage of the economy can fall with Keynesian economics.

The heart of it is an industrial policy v a capital policy.

Say’s law never went away. It is one of the structures of econ.

But demand or supply is a matter of where the factories are. Being cheap means fewer factories if only because factories need infrastructure.

Specially when the second part of Keynesian economics is favorably voted on, removing the excess money through taxation. Somehow that part tends to be eaten by the Big Black Hole in the Void!

The Captain


Some systems are even more copious at production than just interstate highways, systems that own everything, even the clothes on your back. Are those the systems we want to rule us?

Obviously there are areas where collective action is preferable and to quote Wendy, “As all Metarites know.” To some it seems that it is necessary to CAPITALIZE the obvious.

The Captain


It is not just taxation. It is an optimizing of the US economy. Remember? Economics? Nothing to do with Milton Friedman.

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