Earnings from gas shouldn’t go up because gas is cheaper. Margins should go up, but not profits if they make a constant 17c per gallon (unless they sell more gallons, which is probably the case).
I know you don’t put a lot of stock in analyst estimates, but it’s strange that estimates for FY16 at $4.58 are lower than FY15 actual of $4.62 (these figures are from yahoo finance). It’s over 11 analysts; the range is huge too, with a low of $4.20 and a high of $5.37.
I have never been to a Casey store, do they sell liquor/beer/wine there? Is Casey a brand name in their location or have brand recognition? The margin on gas price confused me too. I think I understand that 17c is a higher percentage of 2.50 vs 3.50, but I guess I don’t understand that a gas station would be able to keep the same margin if the price went from 3.50 to 2.50.
I’ll do my own research, but thoughts on debt and cash on hand?
Thanks for the interesting find and thoughts,
Robert
no position in CASY
OIFAirborne11C,
First of all, by your screen name, I think I owe you a “thank you” for your service. It is heartfelt, even though it is merely pixels on a screen.
I live in the Midwest, where Casey’s is very much a trusted brand. The reputation of their pizza approaches legendary status in these parts (I can’t vouch for it personally, I don’t buy much pizza, but my daughters love it).
As to your question about alcohol sales, that would vary by state. The Midwest is home to some really byzantine liquor laws. In my state of Indiana, I don’t think they can sell cold beer, but maybe warm beer by the case only. I am not sure about other states. I suspect it is a “it depends” answer.
BTW, I live in Terre Haute, which is a town of about 50,000 people. There are two Casey’s in the city limits, and several more in surrounding small towns. It is in those small towns where Casey’s rules supreme. There is little or no competition for gas and convenience foods, and there are a LOT of small towns in the Midwest and South.
Tiptree, Fool One guide, no position in CASY (yet 
)
When I left my home town for the military in 1971 the population was 602. In the 44 years since the town has grown from this sleepy little farm and ranch community of 602 to a thriving metropolis of 1200 souls, doubling in only 44 years. LOL. Back in the day there was the Post Office, the Bank, a hardware store, two groceries, 4 gas stations, (full service, with attendant, and garage mechanic), a drug store, a cafe, and a funeral home.
Today the Post Office remains, as well as the bank, and the funeral home.
In the early '80’s Casey’s came to town and the Casey’s has been the center of activity since. In the decades since I left dozens of farms have consolidated and many families have moved. Some farms have been sold and developed into subdivisions and the folks that live there drive 20 to 30 miles to the nearest city for work. So when they come home, Casey’s is the place to stop for gas, milk, eggs, bread, and I guess pizza, though I have never bought pizza there, and yes they do sell beer, but I don’t think wine or hard liquor. It is the place where people stop in the morning to grab their coffee as they head to work, the place they stop in the evening to fill up the car etc. and they are ubiquitous in those little towns all over Missouri, and eastern Kansas. In my former home town if you want anything other than a loan, a baptism, or a burial, you better hope it is inside the Casey’s or you have to drive at least 7 miles, perhaps 20 or 30 one way. I have not traveled up to Iowa, but I am sure it is the same there. I have passed through many little towns in Missouri and Kansas and eastern Oklahoma, they all look the same these days, old brick buildings boarded up or turned into antique shops, maybe an active garage, or hair dresser, those seem to be ubiquitous as well, and then the Casey’s. It is always the newest building in town and always busy.
Just my observations.
Mike
I found them in Minnesota. They are generally the best alterative.
This is on my screen now.
Thanks Saul.
Qazulight
I did a quick and dirty estimate for FY16 just using the company’s goals.
Gross profit dollars:
Fuel 325, down from 351. This is using 2% sss, 5% increase in stores, and their margin decrease to 16.7 cents per gal from 19.3 last year (not sure why it was so high last year, or why it is dropping so much).
Grocery 641, up from 575. Uses their 6.1% sss, 5% inc in stores, and flat margins.
Prepared 562, up from 476. 10.4% sss, 5% inc in stores, and margins up to 60.8% from 59.7%.
Total gross profits of 1528 vs. 1402, up 9.0%.
They don’t give any guidance for the other income statement lines, operating expenses, d&a, interest, and taxes. But each of those except taxes went up less than gross profit last year, so they are getting positive leverage over those expenses. That probably should continue, so I would think eps would go up AT LEAST 9%, and probably much more.
Which is why analysts estimates of a flat year in FY16 are so strange.
I used to take care of process engineering for 3 plants in Wisconsin and Minnesota. Casey’s was the only game in town at one of my plants (DeForest, WI). Food was about on par with Domino’s (which I don’t care for), but I kept coming back over and over. Kind of reminds me of Best Buy in the way that sometimes it is the only option.
They know EXACTLY where to place their stores.
The only question in my mind is will they be able to continue their recipe for success?
bulwkl
PS OK. You guys have me convinced. ZOES has now moved into my watch list. There are clearly better places for my hard earned money.
Just a bit of anecdotal evidence. I work in Des Moines, IA and live in the area. I don’t live in a small town but have been to many of them as that is so much of Iowa. It is common to see a Casey’s in a small town and not see much else, so yes they are the only show in these towns. Regarding the pizza, it is their breakfast pizza which is sooo good. If we are having a early team meeting or just want to show appreciation to our teams (I work for a financial services company) it’s only one of two things- bagels from wherever or Casey’s breakfast pizza.
I can see the attractions but cannot get past the relationship between the debt and the valuation. Total cash MRQ $48.5m, total debt MRQ $853.6m.
When the valuation falls (as I think it should rather dramatically on historical growth rates) the debt ratio will rise.
A PE of 23 is quite punchy for a retailer, even one with the niche strengths of CASY.
I can see the attractions but cannot get past the relationship between the debt and the valuation. Total cash MRQ $48.5m, total debt MRQ $853.6m.
And the working capital is very stretched.
Current Assets $305K
Current Liabilities $365K
Cash + Receivables $71K
Accounts Payable $227K
I had taken out a small trial position on the strength of the summary, saw the balance sheet and sold out.
Ian
(I know I did this backwards - should have looked before committing and I would have saved a few dollars)
TipTree,
I usually don’t respond, or at least silence is my attempt at being gracious, but since they are just pixels I thought your thanks deserved a response.
So you are welcome, and I appreciate the heartfelt thanks on behalf of all military personal. We do appreciate the attitude of gratitude the general populace shows the military these days (vs. the Vietnam war).
And I might add to my profile the reason for my name, but I’ll explain it here even though you didn’t ask. I started a financial planners course online through a big brand name when I was deployed in 2006, but got fed up with their practices and procedures. That’s when I found The Motley Fool, where I tried investing my own money a bit in buy and hold dividend stocks (there’s still an active board I follow called BMW Method). Long story short I was drawn away from investing but now I am back and more active. I sold all the stocks I had since 2007 at about a 20% gain (not good for those years at all) and bought into companies I have found and researched through this board. OIF as you rightly deduced is Operation Iraqi Freedom, where I was when I started this account, Airborne 11C is what I was when I started it(Airborne Infantry Indirect Fire or Mortarman). I am still in the military, but National Guard as a Signal Officer.
Robert
Sorry for the OT.
Hi Saul:
how do you view debt in general and in the case of CASY? The debt to equity
is quite high.
tj
The debt to equity is quite high. (CASY)
Hi tj, They own almost all the stores and the land they are on, and they carry them at purchase price, even though they may have bought them many years ago. And they have plenty of cash flow to cover their debt payments, and they have enough to pay a rising dividend. Beyond that, I don’t know.
Saul
Ian just showed only current assets and liabilities… my guess - big difference there is primarily due to the fact that this is retail store chain, you get paid first (or within certain days from credit card companies) whereas your suppliers offer you credit for 60 days or longer in most cases… and the fact that your are not holding the cash and rather investing back into growth.
CASY also has large long term debt… $800M+ which to me is a good thing… for a company like this, i like to see large long term debt, specially in current interest rate environment… this is a steady eddy and low competition business, with a lot of real assets… its the perfect type of business to take large debt so that growth can be funded cheaply(without diluting share holders).
you look at the cash flow and see they are consistently investing $300M+ in capex over last three years and just getting to depreciate $150M last FY… this means they have been funding the growth (of number of stores and categories etc.) out of cashflow and debt… this shows art management and also the fact that management has credibility into market to get such debt.
More than likely, their assets are carried on balance sheet at cost and under current market prices… so we are seeing ore depressed picture with the numbers than what it ought to be.
having said all of these, yes lower debt to equity ratio is always better, in this case however, CASY seems like a normal case and the model is even beneficial to shareholders.
its the perfect type of business to take large debt so that growth can be funded cheaply
I think you have a good point here. I started a very small trial position in CASY without really looking into it as well as I should, then when I looked at the balance sheet I decided it looked stretched. As the market at the time was extremely volatile, I decided that it was a mistake and sold (for safety).
But for some reason I couldn’t let it go at that and decided to look at the company a lot more closely. The company does seem to be running it close to the wind on cash flow, but that is also a characteristic of many ‘outsider’ companies.
Looking at the free cash flow produced per quarter, the company could easily, quickly improve its cash position by foregoing the current drive for expansion. But it prefers to keep its foot on the pedal - which is a good thing if you are looking for growth.
I’m a lot more comfortable with CASY now - and may reopen my position. Just too many other bargains on the table at the moment to make it a priority (AMBA, SWKS…)
Ian
TMF1000 has a good post in response to Casey having a lot of debt.
http://discussion.fool.com/1081/hi-tj-what-do-you-make-of-the-hi…
Fool on,
mazske
Check my profile to see my holdings
Looking at the free cash flow produced per quarter, the company could easily, quickly improve its cash position by foregoing the current drive for expansion. But it prefers to keep its foot on the pedal - which is a good thing if you are looking for growth.
Hi Ian, TMF1000 (Tom Engel) had the same conclusions as you. He decided they were able to pay their interest without any trouble, they could increase their cash flow enormously by just slowing their expenses on expansion, and they had about $1.6 billion in land and buildings, so he wasn’t worried about the debt. (see post 11920 for the link to his post).
Saul
TMF1000 (Tom Engel) had the same conclusions as you. He decided they were able to pay their interest without any trouble, they could increase their cash flow enormously
Yes, Saul and I also picked up from the 10Q that they have a drawdown facility to cover any short term hiccup. (From memory $100k)
Ian
Do you mean $100 million?
Do you mean $100 million?
Yes - the whole document is written with a note at the top ‘dollars in thousands’ and I got used to thinking in thousands.
Ian