“This is what we have to fight for bitcoin to go 10x or 100x from here,”
That’s the problem with Bitcoin - people are in it as an investment. If you want it to function as a currency replacement, you can’t have the expectation of returns like these. You need stability in a currency so that you can write contracts requiring repayment in the currency. No one would set a salary denominated in bitcoin or take a loan repayable in bitcoin. For a more in depth discussion see here:
Musk cult model
I saw the reception Musk received in Airforce Academy, unreal.
Old dealraker’s guess:
From my observation there are influential types promoting their choice of crypto and of course that’s for their choice to be “the” one used (for whatever). On top of that these crypto promoters are capable and extreme disruptors – and they have huge needs to shock-and-awe.
My 20 year old perfect SAT score young man who I chose to bring up (because his father abosolutely could not and/or refused to understand him…he’s mildly autistic but hard core intense psycholgically) used to “dive bomb” sidewalks while all of us were trying to walk with him. He did this all the way up until he was 18 years old. I had many intense interactions with him…he would literally knock you off the sidewalk!
…and now he’s completely over it. But his behavior, the “dive bomb”, is precisely what you are going to see with both crypto promoters and crypto currencies. My 20 year old is astoundingly capable, a 160 IQ, and like him these crypto promoters are also extremely capable. Some who really are productive and honest…and good for us in many ways… have followers so believing they put the ole Elizabeth Holmes/Theranos game to shame.
My 20 year old is already employed in an architectural firm, his manners now are mostly very good.
These crypto promoters? They are going to rock your crypto world, count on it. They obsess over this type of persuasion/manipulation, it is deeply within them.
Prices of crypto will be literally all over the place now and forevermore.
That’s the problem with Bitcoin - people are in it as an investment.
That’s being pretty generous with the term “investment”, but yes.
More generally, essentially nobody holds crypto for any reason other than they think the price will go up.
There’s nothing wrong with that.
Being a non-earning asset, the price is set by pure supply and demand.
Supply isn’t falling, so rising demand requires new buyers on steady basis.
And, per above, those have to be people willing to hold, meaning an ever increasing number of people who think the price will go up.
So the fun will likely continue for a long time: so long as the participating crowd keeps getting bigger.
Which it is, so far: there are now more millenials holding crypto than millenials holding stocks.
The interesting question is what happens when the participating crowd stops getting bigger, as it eventually must.
It will still be an asset with a price, and probably a high one. But the price will stop rising.
The key reason that people hold it will no longer obtain.
Some will start to sell.
The crowd of those willing to hold waiting for a higher price will begin to shrink.
Jim
Thiel is projecting, he’s a pure a sociopath as there is.
There may come a time when the USD is not the reserve currency.
And IIRC, WEB did say Berkshire would have been a goner if the USD had gone under during the credit crisis if Dubya had not jumped in with Bernanke & Paulson pushing Congress.
We all want to look to those “above us” to protect our backs, but there was only so much that WEB or Musk FTM can do.
Got into the Gigafest in Austin. Unlike the Woodstock for Capitalists, they really had nothing to hawk.
There was a VIP section, like at Berkshire. There were movie stars… Harrison Ford in Austin, Glen Close in Omaha (a few years back).
But there were lots of similarities, it was a lot of fun.
When WEB loaned money to Harley-Davidson, during the credit crisis, IIRC, he made a comment that any company whose customers love it so much that they tattoo the brand on themselves, has brand loyalty.
At the Austin gathering there was a long line to get a tattoo of either the Tesla or Gigafest logo, for free.
Both WEB and Musk have read psych books for sure😉
The interesting question is what happens when the participating crowd stops getting bigger, as it eventually must.
At that point, there will be nothing to do but plant the bitcoin in the digital dirt and see if you at least get a digital tulip from your investment.
R: