$HIMS just reported. The results of Q1 were great but the guidance of rest of year was pretty bad. They beat Q1 revenue guidance by $46M (8.5%), but failed to raise full year guidance.
https://investors.hims.com/news/news-details/2025/Hims--Hers-Health-Inc--Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Financial-Results/default.aspx
First Quarter 2025 Financial Highlights
- Revenue was $586.0 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $278.2 million for the first quarter of 2024, an increase of 111% year-over-year.
- Gross margin was 73% for the first quarter of 2025 compared to 82% for the first quarter of 2024.
- Net income was $49.5 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $11.1 million for the first quarter of 2024.
- Adjusted EBITDA was $91.1 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $32.3 million for the first quarter of 2024.
- Net cash provided by operating activities was $109.1 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $25.8 million for the first quarter of 2024.
- Free Cash Flow was $50.1 million for the first quarter of 2025 compared to $11.9 million for the first quarter of 2024.
Reconciliations of Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow, non-GAAP measures, to net income and net cash provided by operating activities, respectively, their most comparable financial measures under generally accepted accounting principles in the United States (“U.S. GAAP”), have been provided in this press release in the accompanying tables. Additional information about Adjusted EBITDA and Free Cash Flow is also included below under the heading “Non-GAAP Financial Measures”.
Financial Outlook
Hims & Hers is providing the following guidance:
For the second quarter 2025, we expect:
- Revenue of $530 million to $550 million.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $65 million to $75 million, reflecting an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 12% to 14%.
For the full year 2025, we expect:
- Revenue of $2.3 billion to $2.4 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA of $295 million to $335 million, reflecting an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 13% to 14%.
2030 Financial Targets
Hims & Hers has demonstrated a consistent track record of execution driven by the strength of its business model and operational excellence, which is fueling strong top line growth and Adjusted EBITDA profitability. Given its large market opportunity and growing customer demand, the Company is providing financial targets for the full year 2030, which include:
- Revenue of at least $6.5 billion.
- Adjusted EBITDA of at least $1.3 billion.
Luffy
21 Likes
What do you consider bad about the guidance? It seems to be in line with next quarters guidance and they confirmed full year guidance. Is it because they didn’t raise guidance that you think it is pretty bad? At the high of their guidance they are projecting 74% revenue growth.
10 Likes
So let me put it clear. HIMS just beat Q1 revenue by $46M, but did not raise full year guidance. What does that mean? It means that they were now guiding $46M less revenue for Q2 to Q4 than 3 months ago. Wouldn’t that be considered a bad guidance? 3 months ago when they firstly provided FY25 guidance, they were aware of the upcoming revenue loss from GLP1 as well.
Luffy
9 Likes
Ok thanks Luffy I see where you are coming from but it could also mean they are being very conservative or that they just do not have a really clear picture of the rest of the year. But I like their new hire from Amazon and I do like that they are using Novo now. Although you could say Novo has multiple partners in the space.
11 Likes
Yes, there are many things to like, including the COO appointment you mentioned. But the lack of yearly guidance raise does concern me, because HIMS was able to raise FY guidance every single quarter in the past year. HIMS’s philosophy of guiding has always been very conservative and has been set up for beat & raise. But this time, they seem to be more conservative than usual. There could be something that happened in these past few months which changed their view, IMO. Or it could be simply because their FY25 guidance was too stretched initially.
And their “2030 target” seems like they were trying to excite investors for long term rather than let them focus on potential short-term headwinds, as I don’t usually trust a company’s visibility into 5 years. (As a longtime member of this board, we have witnessed Snowflake targeting $10B revenue by 2028 and Twilio claiming they could stabilize at 20%+ long term revenue growth rate…)
$HIMS was my number 1 position entering the earning call. I was expecting huge beat for Q1 and considerable raise for the rest of year (considering the NOVO partnership). I could be wrong, but given I did not see the raise I expected, I’m currently considering trimming my position considerably tomorrow.
I’m also curious about everyone else’s thoughts.
Cheers,
Luffy
8 Likes
I agree with both sides on this one:
- great quarter in a vacuum
- the COO add from AMZN is great news; if you can’t beat 'em, join 'em!
- I thought the raw Q1 customer adds were a little light but was pleased to see the personal solutions % and revenue per customer both rise
- I too was surprised at the flat FY guide given the big Q1 beat; they mentioned last quarter they weren’t building in any GLP-1 contribution and did raise the FY EBITDA number but still…
- not a big fan of the 5-year guides; seems like something to distract from the short term funkiness in the revenue numbers
The wild card here is the Novo deal. I’d have to assume that’s accretive sooner rather than later but haven’t read the transcript yet for any comments on ramping the partnership. Anyone know the timeline?
Overall, I thought this report held serve. Some softness in the guide offset by the Novo partnership and COO announcement. I also feel a significant amount of HIMS’ downside risk has been eliminated even if the short-term upside stayed flat (at least as far as the FY guide).
I’m standing pat with our 6.9% position.
17 Likes
A couple more items. They grew subscribers 38% YoY and monthly average revenue per customer by 53% YoY. I would have to think for their Revenue to go down both of those numbers would have to tank. Since the Montly online revenue per average customer is $84 dollars I just don’t see that number collapsing unless they start losing subscribers.
5 Likes
GLP-1 compounded weight loss drug can still be sold until the end of May for $199, so it should be a contributor to Q2. After that, the new Novo Nordisk sourced GLP-1 for $599 may be challenging to GLP sales growth. Given a new COO, why not give him some rope to forecast sales for 2H 2025 at the Q2 ER? At this point in time, it probably impossible to forecast the 2H GLP-1 sales. Do we have a GLP-1 sales breakout percent for Q1 to determine the potential impact 2H 2025? Lastly, hopefully the new Novo Nordisk North Carolina factory is up and running to avoid any tariff impact. The lack of a revised forecast I believe is prudent right now. I am holding my HIMS. Maybe write some calls given market volatility.
-zane
10 Likes
I don’t think we have to look very hard to identify a couple (or more) recent events that might cause a company to hedge their forecasts a little.
7 Likes
I thought it was a great report, considering the Q2 revenue guidance down was stated as a one-time event. I’ve decided to take all guidance with a heavy grain of salt for now, considering many companies are pulling guidance altogether. Rather, I’m trying to imagine if each business has worse headwinds ahead vs. Q1. For HIMS, I would have thought Q1 would have shown an impact with all the uncertainty and the less affluent population pulling back on spending. Instead they blew it out of the water. I’m staying put, I would even consider adding but I’ll have to wait for my other holdings to report before I make decisions.
15 Likes
The Novo timing likely caused some guidance hedge as well. It might be a couple/few quarters before they wrap their heads around its contribution:
“So when I step back, I think there’s a real set of opportunities, hopefully, across categories, across Novo product lines, potentially across geographies that we are brainstorming. And hopefully, in the coming quarters, can give a little bit more precise road map with regard to what some of those offerings can be.”
8 Likes
I thought they had a great quarter. I was initially put off by the lower guidance and had to listen to the conference call a few times to figure out why. They see two main contributors to this one time drop in revenue.
First, we expect continued strong growth across many of our most tenured offerings, including mental health as well as men’s and women’s dermatology, all of which are benefiting from years of investment in brand retention and personalized offerings. That said, while sequential and year-over-year growth is expected to continue, we do expect uneven trends in sexual health as we navigate transitions in the treatment mix, which we believe is temporary as new daily personalized solutions gain traction.
Second, we expect to complete the transition of subscribers previously on commercially available doses of semiglutide to either appropriate alternatives on our platform or other platforms entirely by the end of the second quarter. This transition is expected to result in a one-time quarter-over-quarter revenue drop in the second quarter, from which we are confident we can continue to build upon through the remainder of the year
The first bit is they might lose some clients that are ordering Viagra because its a low stick, low attached rate business. They are trying to transition those clients into a broader set of care. Things like cardiometabolic care, preventative care, testosterone support and or vitamins. They say these type of daily solutions have more than doubled year-over-year. My opinion is the company understands the Viagra market is a race to the bottom and clients have no attachment from who they get it from other than price. So they have decided to help those individuals manage the cause and not just the symptom. Which means they might lose some short term sales based on price but are shooting to transition individuals who want to manage their entire health better. Right now they say the individuals on daily doses account for 40% of that business, which shows they have been successfully converting individuals towards this new type of care.
The second bit they are forecasting losing some customers of GLP1 on commercially available doses to either their other products or to a different provider. If they convert to another product of HIMS it will be a lower revenue product and if they go else where HIMS loses the entire revenue.
With those two events happening its easy to see why HIMS is pausing its tradition of raising yearly guidance. That with their stellar past performance gives me great confidence in the leadership of this company. They are good communicators about opportunities and issues they see coming.
The future products from the peptide plant they have is huge. Hormone Replacement Therapy (HRT) is increasing based on new studies. Recent studies show that 30-50% of women going through menopause should be taking HRT but only 5-10% in the United States are. Older studies overstated the risks involved in HRTs for women, which lowered women taking it but the trend of women taking it is reversing and HIMS is positioning itself well to catch this rebound. HIMS has been adding a new product that actively affects its top and bottom line at a rate of 1 a year. Which is another reason I am happy investor in HIMS.
Drew,
Long
28 Likes
This Q was great, as previous posters pointed out. Nice top-line beat and 22% sequential revenue growth. Almost too good when combined with the guide down sequentially for Q2: -6% down at the top end?
What’s going on? Here’s my take: I think what we may be seeing is a bit of advance buying of GLP1s before it became unavailable on the platform. Which would suggest that the weight-loss category really pumped this Q. But my thesis was that the non weight loss part of the bus was just humming along nicely.
But it seems that part of the business just slowed down a ton. Here are the quotes that I could find on the non weight loss category. If you have other sources, pls shoot:
Q3 2024: “Our subscriber base, excluding GLP-1s, grew approximately 40% year-over-year.”
Q4 2024: “Revenue outside of our GLP-1 offering increased 43% year-over-year to $1.2 billion in 2024"
Q1 2025: “Despite a significant shift in marketing spend towards weight loss and dynamics from the previously mentioned transition, year-over-year revenue growth outside of our GLP-1 offering remained robust at nearly 30% year-over-year”
→ So the non GLP-1 business slowed down a lot this Q. And that 40%-ish growth ex GLP-1 was the reason I really liked HIMS…
So what is everyone seemingly so happy about? They guided $6.5bn revenue $1.3bn ebitda for 2030 which I think may have people excited as it’s a $11bn company now and this year’s guide is $2.4bn revenue and $335m ebitda. That’s about a 22% cagr for revenue and 31% cagr for EBITDA fom the next 5 years after 2025. All the talk around the possibilities with Novo was also happily ingested by the analysts. They’re saying the next Q’s slowdown is transitory and the future is exciting. But no analyst really delved into the why of the apparent big non GLP-1 slowdown. Anyone see this differently?
-wsm
(still long HIMS)
19 Likes
I think the management may have answered in the first half of the sentence by themselves?
Despite a significant shift in marketing spend towards weight loss and dynamics from the previously mentioned transition
I guess the previously mentioned transition refers to the headwinds caused to sexual products segement.
As we transition our subscriber base toward more premium daily products, we expect some volatility in sexual health growth as we recalibrate our approach to messaging and invest in consumer education around the benefits our offerings provide.
Over the mid-to-long term horizon, we believe this transition will drive durable growth within our sexual health specialty as a result of increased retention and acquisition efficiency.
So it may make sense that HIMS used additional conservatism considering the multiple ongoing transitions as pointed out by the other folks in this thread.
Thanks for all the comments! Lastly, I’d like to add that today’s share price movement may be caused by a short squeeze as pointed out by this X post - https://x.com/himshouse/status/1919834628593992016. HIMS had 31% shorted float before the earning call and it appears that the number of shorted shares have been decreasing today based on sampled data.
Luffy
16 Likes