hmcproperties Resiliency Or Lack Of

So, here is where my large portfolio (60 holdings) may be of some assistance to fellow board members in terms of providing the board with an opportunity to look into the damage continuum that has been visited upon my portfolio over the past twenty (20) trading days. Below, I present a list of the Best 15 Performers and Worst 15 Performers over this period of time. As an anchoring point, I chose to use pricing as of the close of the market on February 19th (the high water mark) and compare that to pricing as of today at 1:35 p.m. As painful as this may be, I thought it would be of interest to board members to see my first quartile and fourth quartile of performers.

**Best 15 Performers**

ZM        +8.1%
NET       +8.1%
DLR       +0.7%
PYPL      -4.3%
AMT       -7.6%
EQIX     -11.5%
ZNGA     -15.5%
AMZN     -19.3%
BR       -20.3%
LVGO     -20.7%
ANET     -22.0%
BABA     -22.4%
FIVN     -22.9%
OKTA     -23.7%
TEAM     -24.2%

...and, _**are you all ready for this?**_

**Worst 15 Performers**

SPCE     -75.2%
RDFN     -68.6%
SQ       -61.5%
JMIA     -60.2%
PPD      -60.0%
TLRA     -59.1%
BFAM     -57.0%
TTD      -55.5%
PINS     -54.2%
PLAN     -54.2%
HUBS     -53.6%
APPN     -52.4%
QCOM     -52.0%
LULU     -50.9%
ROKU     -50.3%

While my portfolio does not look so resilient, I am! I have been diligently and systematically adding to and layering on the way down into a handful of my highest conviction companies. I just hope we find the bottom in due time before I run out of cash.

No condolences necessary. Don’t worry about me. Stay safe and healthy!

Harley

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Harley .Its an interesting post but I can draw no clear conclusions. I am long some of the upper tier and some in the lower tier many of which have been strongly recommended by TMF.

It could be random, or maybe the stocks that went up the most dropped the most. And maybe its the market place telling us what they do not expect to recover quickly.

I have nibbled at a few in each group and have no inkling of whether I made any good decisions.

@draj

Fair enough…I am not sure I was presenting an argument; but perhaps it was a bit “off topic” because I was simply and merely, as well as transparently, sharing for board members which of my personal holdings have seemed to hold up best since the S&P topped out on Feb. 19th and which have pulled back the most.

Perhaps an interesting topic to discuss would be that I have seen many posts on various boards in which investors, such as myself, discuss the merits of adding to existing positions based on the fact that the existing positions have fallen to such an extent that they must now “be on sale” based on revised valuations. That may be true; but why not assess which existing positions have performed best during these trying times (those that have either gained or have not pulled back much at all and therefore would not be considered to be “on sale”) and give serious consideration to adding to those positions. This is a theme that I have not really heard many mention. Winners Win…Add to the Winners.

Harley

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Thanks for the post. To reply to someone else, the “relative strength” of some stocks over others reflects the willingness or unwillingness of the big holders to sell or buy.

I think the pypl drop may not be accurate. I hold pypl too, and it dropped from 123 to around 88.

That may be true; but why not assess which existing positions have performed best during these trying times (those that have either gained or have not pulled back much at all and therefore would not be considered to be “on sale”) and give serious consideration to adding to those positions. This is a theme that I have not really heard many mention. Winners Win…Add to the Winners.

Harley :I understood your purpose and appreciate the intent. On first glance nothing leapt out at me. And speculation doesn’t really help much. Maybe the important message is just as you suggest. Add to winners and cut the others loose. I for one haven’t done enough of that.

Cheers

Dr.AJ

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I appreciate the posts describing which companies have done better or worse during this crash, but I think in any of these cases it’s worth following up a year from now to see how those companies did. In the short term there’s so much randomness that it’s hard to glean any real information from short term changes in stock price.

Enjoy,
Brian

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Hi Harley,

We’re not worried 'bout ya!

Since you’re in a sharing mood, and in spite of the fact that it’s none of my business :slight_smile:
I would be interested in hearing about the stocks you’re adding to or trimming.

For example, 2 of your best performers are some of my best too–ZM–Are you adding to it? (I am not, because I think it may be getting ahead of itself, and I have a 17% position, but I’d love to hear what others think.)

NET–I am still digging deeper into the financials but the overview is fine, so I only have 1-2%-ish positions. Do you have any thoughts on adding to that one here? (I’ll let you know what I think when I’m done, but I will need some time …)

PYPL–was thinking of starting a position (again) but they aren’t really on sale. Or are they? :slight_smile: Come on, Tell us! Tell us!

The lower tier–any you are adding to that you feel are “on sale”? I’ve been out of TTD awhile (love the co. though) due to valuation. TLRA is on my “Next-to-Study” list.

Good luck,

Dan

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Hey Dan,

"Since you’re in a sharing mood, and in spite of the fact that it’s none of my business :slight_smile:
I would be interested in hearing about the stocks you’re adding to or trimming."

Not to bore members of the board to tears, but since you asked, Below are the companies I have added to at various points (Feb. 25, Mar. 06, Mar. 09, Mar. 12 and Mar. 16)in the wake of the pullback. I have also provided you with the portion of total deployed funds through Mar. 16 that were directed towards each position. All positions were existing positions in my portfolio.

Keep in mind, I followed a similar strategy during the pullback at the end of 2018 as well as during the most recent Rotation or SaaS Tsunami of 2019. I take bites on the way down (particularly on days when most investors are freaking out; it calms my nerves to buy on whacky days), layering-in my positions in search of a bottom, since I don’t believe I could ever predict the bottom.


AAPL	1.70%
ADBE	3.80%
APPN	1.12%
AYX	10.17%
COUP	3.43%
CRWD	2.37%
DAVA	1.96%
DDOG	6.10%
ESTC	1.16%
FSLY	1.77%
GLOB	1.97%
GNRC	0.33%
INSG	1.03%
JMIA	10.03%
KNSL	1.85%
LULU	4.10%
LVGO	1.45%
MA	0.64%
MDB	2.76%
MSFT	0.70%
NET	5.31%
NVDA	6.40%
PAYC	2.70%
PINS	3.59%
ROKU	7.01%
SQ	2.04%
TEAM	0.34%
TLRA	0.33%
TTD	2.89%
WORK	0.32%
ZM	9.62%
ZNGA	1.00%

As you can see, I was not not very judicious in selecting just a handful of companies. Quite the opposite, I added to approximately 50% of my positions. My self aware and self-inflicted investing “brain fart” is with JMIA. I totally understand the argument against this move; however, at such a depressed price I added heavily to one of my “moonshot” holdings based on nothing more than sport. Perhaps I am search of my Amazon tech-bubble moment with JMIA.

Positions I sold during this same time frame include: GH, ECL, NRC and UI

Positions I have added to since Mar. 16 which were not included in the calculations above, were purchased on Mar. 18 and included:

BABA
KNSL
SQ
TLRA
TTD
WIFI

and I took a starter position in QCOM.

Let me know if you have questions,

Harley

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