Well, some progress has been made regarding an AI basket. Per thoughts in another thread, and a useful perspective from GDavenport, I have spent a couple of days collecting data and putting in a spreadsheet. What I have done is collect all the relevant AI holdings that still exist in the accounts into HohumYNWA’s AI Basket 2025. At this time, the basket focuses on just 2025 purchases AND does not include the possible AI-related names in ETFs e.g. YieldMax, QQQ, etc. I have a bunch of other tech related names I will also toss out for discussion. At this time, they are not in the basket. But, someone with better knowledge can provide feedback and things might change,
As it current shakes out
- COHR 21.29%
- QCOM 11.54%*
- NVDA 6.52%*
- CORZ 5.93%
- IREN 13.01%
- VSH 6.19%
- NBIS 11.09%
- VERI 8.49%
- MRVL 2.49%
- ANET 6.19%
- AAPL 2.76%*
- CAMT 3.14%
- CRWV 0.01% [edit: 1:00%]
Tech names that were not included AMAT, ENTG, SSTK, DGNX, NVT. The larger names (AAPL, QCOM & NVDA) only include purchases made in 2025. I have earlier purchases in each of those names that would really skew that basket. Down the road, I will factor them in. Basket also does not include trades completed in existing names in 2025 and/or names that might have been in the basket if I had started the effort earlier (PLTR, AMD come to mind). Only one name is red – MRVL (started in Oct 2025)
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10/27 And then along comes QCOM, and really throws a major wrench into things
For a few minutes, the QCOM entries were showing Unk, and my spreadsheet had a whole bunch of incomplete entries, and thus no final total. Wow! What a way to start a new week.
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And one more set of stats, after market close 10/27/25 with the YieldMax ETFs for 2025 included. Reordered by %
- COHR 17.58%
- IREN 10.62%
- QCOM 10.14% *
- NBIS 10.08%
- YMAG 7.95% *
- NVDY 5.64% *
- NVDA 5.30% *
- GPTY 4.07%
* - has prior year shares excluded from total
Given the YieldMax additions, the divisor is different from prior set
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I guess one last set of stats. AI basket with all shares (prior years included) -Halloween edition (10/31)
- NVDA 19.02%
- QCOM 17.32%
- AAPL 12.79%
- COHR 8.82%
- NVDY 7.86%
- YMAG 7.66%
- IREN 5.56%
- NBIS 5.40%
- Others 15.59%
CAMT has been completely monetized. Have nibbled on a new AI idea - Figma (FIG)
11/07 & 11/10
COHR announced results on 11/06 and shares got a nice bump up - twice took some gains on the news on 11/07. With shares getting another bounce today (11/10), took additional gains. All transactions in Roth ac. The last few trading days, I have been adding to CRWV. Nice bounce from NVDA today. CORZ continues to drop slowly. Now glad I decided to monetize position via trims in both Roth ac and taxable ac. When an AI-related name drops, the challenge is deciding how much of a drop is a reasonable drop before getting back into the name. [edit: Last statement was a thinking aloud regarding COHR. But, it could apply to CORZ and NVDA (now missed)]
11/11 Odd coincidence that AI data center companies NBIS and CRWV reporting about the same time. Just scanned the results of both. NBIS looks good, but there is a dilution overhang element with an ATM offering element. The company is growing and has several multi-year deals with several companies (MSFT being the big one). CRWV too has growth coming. From $19B => $55B in backlog. Margins got thrashed - down to about 5%. CRWV is a small stake, only started nibbling about three weeks ago. Negative now - but on an invested basis < 1% Even though the deal with CORZ is off, I still think the CORZ 10% beat down today is partly tied to CRWV. At least with CORZ, a majority of the stake had already been monetized in both the Roth ac and the taxable ac. The remaining stake in the latter account slipped into red territory. The CAMT monetization now looking good. Today, another slice of AAPL was monetized.
11/15 Ok, additional names in AI basket flipped to red - CORZ, VERI, NBIS joined FIG, VSH, CRWV in the red pile. IREN still in the black corner. I guess there has been a slide for Bitcoin too. That area was a core area for CORZ, prior to a pivot to AI. My own CORZ position is now a tiny stake. So, not a significant impact from a tracking perspective. But useful to monitor for a nibble opportunity. Saw an article that suggests Buffett & Berkshire are building a position in Alphabet, and continue to trim AAPL. Berkshire shares have been moving in the opposite direction to big tech names.
11/16 Just a story - trading activity from Peter Thiel.
I guess the big event was Thiel completely selling out of NVDA. The conclusion on Thiel deciding it was due to an AI bubble is primarily the article’s author. I mean, the remaining equity is in three stocks - MSFT, TSLA & AAPL. Those three are hardly slouches in AI. If Peter Thiel was concerned about an AI bubble, he would likely have also taken some action on the remaining equity positions too. No mention on activities with Palantir (yet another name very involved with AI).
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One last item on the Peter Thiel thing. At the end of 2024, Mr Thiel owned over 100M shares of PLTR. He does have a 10b5-1 plan for his PLTR shares, so the number might have gone down in the interim. But, assuming no shares have been sold since Dec 2024, then just his PLTR stake would be worth > $17B in mid November 2025. The NVDA stake was perhaps 1% - 1.5% of just the PLTR stake. Again, if it was assumed that Peter Thiel thought AI was in a bubble, would he really just focus on NVDA, and not worry on potentially the other 98.5% that was in PLTR? Just a guess, the VC entity, which he is a significant partner probably also has investments in AI-related companies e.g. FIG, Scale AI, etc.
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So heading into Thanksgiving week, the basket has made a major shift. While the 2025 edition and the overall basket are positive, there is bad news on the individual front. Three weeks ago, it was just a name or two (FIG, MRVL) and the YieldMax ETFs (YMAG, NVDY) showing red. Now, those four have been joined by a few others (IREN, CRWV, NBIS, VSH, CORZ, GPTY, VERI). That said, if one includes the dividend payouts, the three YieldMax names are not too bad. And the names that standout on an investment basis are IREN & NBIS. As noted elsewhere, I probably need to just keep an eye on some of the AI related names thru the end of the year. QCOM on the radar. But gains left at the table still gnaw at me. I do find it interesting that QCOM was an invitee when the Saudi prince came for a US visit. Even before the visit, QCOM had mentioned that the Saudi effort was one of their active projects. Who knows how long this “AI pause” lasts? I guess I will just stay tuned and monitor developments among the names I hold. And a few others.
11/24 Well, a nice bounce back day for some AI names, or specifically, in my case, names like NBIS, IREN, COHR. Nice to see. Made me think of adding to IREN. I nibbled on PGY last week. I had considered them more a financial entity. I had not realized they were using AI, and have some similarities to UPST. I guess I should include them in my AI basket. And go dig in a little more, so I understand my investment idea a little better. Had been looking at ORCL after its recent teardown. That one has delved into AI, and then, decided to nibble on the name today.
As much as I have been somewhat cautious on AI-related names, it seems, at least the last three days, I keep drifting back to AI-related names. I mean, while there was a nibble on HIMS, and a couple on ENTG (both non-AI), there were also nibbles on COHR, VSH, NVDA, IREN (existing ideas) and ORCL, PGY (new ones). And IREN, MRVL have moved back to being green again. VSH being viewed as a whack slightly overdone. So buying here as replacement shares
12/01 After hours
Perusing on IREN, I saw this news item –
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4527335-iren-announces-2b-convertible-notes-offering-concurrent-equity-raise
Prior to today, IREN had ~ $1.4B in LT debt. There is a big capex requirement on a new Data Center facility in the US (Childress, TX). It is a large facility - 750 MW (or more than 4.5X their existing multi-site capacity). The basic maths (English expression) says that’s where much of the Microsoft contract will be supported. But, that schedule seems really, really aggressive - I mean, we are talking 13 months to get the facility up-and-running. Just like IREN are using derivatives to manage risk, I’m going to need a strategy for risk management with this pick.
12/03 Yesterday, I dumped a chunk of my IREN shares in the Roth at a loss. Today, I bought some of the IREN shares back. Lower than my exit price means a slight plus. Then I saw additional details on the events i.e. I had no idea how big the planned dilution was going to be until I read a minutiae of a data-point after hours – 39.7M shares @ $41.12 each, raising $1.63B With the rough calculation suggesting that level of dilution is not as bad as $1B worth of 2029 convertible turned into equity, I think that’s a plus. The question is, is all the newly raised equity going to pay down all the debt? The earlier releases suggested that was not the case. I mean, among other things, the multiple transactions also are to be used to support the capped call strategy. Either way, there’s extra capital to utilize, an AI Data Center to build out (or at least, 200 MW chunk for MSFT, to build out), and a potential dilution moved further out). The extra details –
https://seekingalpha.com/news/4527979-iren-prices-stock-debt-offerings