An intense and wild ride to kick 2021 off. For the most part it was a strong showing for my companies. I thoroughly enjoyed watching the Game Stop movement, it even caught the attention of my parents (in their 70’s) and I had to explain over Zoom what’s been going on! It’s interesting to see the fear index swing back to fearful. The world is making some great moves with the vaccine roll out so I’m pretty optimistic 2021 will be the year that the global economies come roaring back and the truly great ecommerce, digital and SaaS companies will shine.
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Performance to date
YTD - 29%
2020 - 209%
January 2020 - 29%
December 2020 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-dec-2020-from…
November 2020 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-nov-2020-from……
October 2020 - https://discussion.fool.com/horseplayandrew-update-oct-2020-from……
September 2020 - https://discussion.fool.com/portfolio-update-from-london-uk-sep-……
Crowdstrike - 13.44%
Teladoc - 11.52%
Pinterest - 8.64%
Sea - 7.83%
Magnite - 7.77%
Etsy - 7.70%
FuboTV - 7.68%
Cloudflare - 7.49%
Peloton - 5.99%
Roku - 5.76%
Fiverr - 5.57%
Opendoor - 4.80%
Skillz - 2.94%
Lemonade - 2.90%
January 2021 Activity
My young guns continued their acceleration, Magnite and FuboTV with a rollercoaster month and Roku, Etsy and Teladoc also bagged me some impressive gains. I continue a strategy of an oversized portfolio. Ideally I would be more Saul/Bear like with 6-8 but right now I’m still figuring out my high convictions and I am quite excited about the new crop of hyper growth companies coming along.
I did some trimming of Roku, Etsy, Crowstrike, Cloudflare, Teladoc and Peloton to support purchases elsewhere but I am also conscious of price run ups and the general state of the market.
Sea Finally I’ve taken the plunge! I had owned them earlier in 2020 but finally I’m back in with a long term hold. The market cap size has been the main reason, but I think we have a monster in the making here, so I’m in for the ride. I’m also moving to Bali (Indonesia) in September so felt like I owed it to my new country!
Lemonade I decided to have a little sip of the Lemonade. As I said last month, this is a story stock and one to be tucked away for a fair while. Daniel Schreiber comes across as a visionary and appeals to my angel/founder roots. I also really like that they have gone early in listing publicly, I get the feel you’re getting the opportunity to invest like VC’s do before the hyper growth and crony IPO process, because of Daniels principles and strategy. This is a cracking listen about Lemonade and the founders if you wanted to explore further: https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/from-launch-to-ipo-in-…
Skillz I’ve posted on the boards already about them so won’t get into too much detail. But I really like the business model, mobile gaming as a space and how they are the leader in a trend which is going to boom. Still early days in their public life though so I will be eagerly listening to their earnings call and there are a few red flags, namely game revenue concentration, quality of games, ethics and the threat of Apple reducing their margins.
OpenDoor The leader of ibuying in Real Estate. Another story stock and one I won’t be crowing too much about as it doesn’t tick many of the Saul boxes (look away at the margins lol). I’m in because I love founder led disrupters with a huge TAM and boy does real estate need disruption. If they stick to their current market share (in the cities they’ve launched in) then they should be doing 40b in revenue in 4 years time, so we could see some fireworks in the share price over the next few years.
I also added to Pinterest, and temporarily large amounts to FuboTV and Magnite to take advantage of their short attacks, where they sold off. I also topped up my Fiverr position after the big sell off, I think it’s a bargain at a 7b market cap, the 80% margins and the potential ahead.
Crowdstrike - I trimmed a little of Crowdstrike but I am still very bullish on their future growth prospects. A quiet month in terms of news.
Teladoc - this sleeping giant finally woke up! A nice 30%+ rise which I think was more down to fresh eyes looking at them again for the year ahead rather than any major breakthrough news. It’s all about future growth expectations and we will soon find out in February. I top sliced after the recent kick because I had bought an oversized position in the $200 range when the technicals were pointing towards a rise.
Pinterest - The tailwinds are there. They have built a platform that is just perfect for advertisers and commerce. If they can crack their programmatic advertising and scale up International revenue, they will enter the social media big league. I increased my position because I have a feeling Q4 will give further evidence of their ascendency.
Etsy - Etsy continued to breakout to ATH’s. Looking at some very basic data sources ie similarweb and Google Trends, it looks like they had a brilliant holiday season. The key though is their guidance for 2021 and the tough comps they have coming up. I took some off the table until we have a bit more clarity ahead. Etsy also has a rival to my e-commerce % of my portfolio that could affect matters, more below.
Sea discussed above.
Cloudflare - I had to do a little trimming to make way for some other buys but I still like the potential. I think they do need to show acceleration to warrant their price tag but all the signs are there and they have a world class product and founders leading them.
Roku - A busy January for Roku. Great user metrics, with over 50m accounts announced and an acquisition of Quibi which enhances the Roku channel play. Again I took some off the top due to the runup but we are still early innings in the CTV advertising migration.
Peloton - We have a big earning report coming up this week. That will go a long way to determining my position size and where this stock is heading this year. Still loving my bike+!
Magnite - It was a wild ride this month. Lots of analyst upgrades and a significant short attack which drove the price down. So I loaded up as I didn’t see anything of concern and was significantly rewarded. I took that money off the table at $40 because we don’t yet have the evidence they are a hyper growth company. I’m excited by the potential BUT they really do have to serve up a knock out earnings report to justify the hype they are getting.
FuboTV If you ignore the share price movements, then they had a cracker of a month. They announced the acquisition of Vigtory, a sports betting and gaming company, and combined with their Balto buy, now adds a lot more weight to the potential of Fubo becoming a big time sports and TV platform. It’s still very early days and the 2-3b market cap reflects that, but I am very excited to see where they go over the next few years. They also got more institutional buy in with a convertible note offering which I think was important for their reputation. The stock has been shorted a lot, and so I’ve managed to ride the waves back up, but I’m not sure this market cap will be around for much longer considering their pace of growth. One to hold on and close your eyes!
Fiverr discussed above.
OpenDoor discussed above.
Skillz - discussed above.
Lemonade - discussed above.
IPOE I like the look of SoFi. On the consumer side they are doing a nice job at disrupting retail banking (although CashApp muddies the water here somewhat) but what I really like is Galileo, their Banking As A Service platform. It’s an API that provides all the banking infrastructure consumer facing companies need. I need to dig deeper on them but they are a front runner.
Farfetch These guys are knocking on the door of Etsy for a place in my portfolio. They are the leader in luxury e-commerce. They have signed some juicy looking deals to sell in China alongside WeChat and Alibaba which could do wonders to their revenue growth. They are already killing it with 74% revenue growth but this is just early days in the luxury e-commerce space. They are founder led and have built out shopify like tools to aid boutiques to sell their products online which further strengthens their moat. Keen to hear from anyone if you are invested.
Futu - A chinese Robinhood. Insane revenue and customer growth. I’m not keen on China based companies but their growth is worth looking at.
Square - Less likely to be buying Square now I have gone in on Sea (similar market cap sizes). Still like what I’m seeing but would take something major to buy now.
NGA I had a little dabble with these guys, Lion Electric Co, during the month but decided to sit it out after its run up. It’s very early days, they are aiming to be the leader in electric trucks and school buses. They’ve clocked up over 6 million miles with their early ev’s so far and signed a nice looking deal with Amazon for their delivery trucks. I’ll be watching them closely as the SPAC finalises and their revenue ramps.
Honourable mentions to CCIV (Lucid Motors) an ex top dog of Tesla has assembled quite a team & product but the SPAC is yet to be confirmed, Snowflake (still waiting for a buying opportunity) and Bitcoin.
I’m finding it frustrating that my new companies I’m getting most excited about aren’t SaaS. I looked at Asana but the growth doesn’t seem that exciting (yet) and the product is in a crowded space. There doesn’t seem to be anything that compelling out there at the moment so hopefully some IPO’s come along in 2021.
Thanks for reading and best wishes from a locked down UK. Bring on the vaccine!