grrrrr!!!
If I would have accepted 18% down in AH yesterday or pre-market today, I would have made 15% already.
Greed? Maybe. But it seems when a company is down 15% or more, they are usually down over 20% on ER / bad news beatdowns. I kept trying for $43.99.
Que sera sera…
Dreamer
$NET
$TEAM
$TWLO
SaaS is different.
Higher GMs.
Old school investors just don’t get it.
In the meantime…stocks all falling back to pre-2020 levels. Some already at 2018 or lower.
You can’t make this stuff up.
But, but, but…“this time is different”.
If you make 200%+ in 2020, and then lose about 70% in 2022 holding basically the same stuff, does it say something perhaps about the irrationality of the 2020 performance? Hmmm?
DoctorDoom…you were a year too early, buddy.
Dreamer
Today’s “Hot Take” is:
Fade everything.
Everything eventually retests their lows.
All of a sudden, TTD close to 11% from 52 wk low.
GLBE still a ways off, but closing the gap fast with a big down day at moment.
PTLO stubbornly high.
SPG already came back down once after rising from June lows…not sure if it will again.
But TTD, PTLO, and GLBE are three companies I like whose stocks have stubbornly stayed up since rising from their respective June lows. Will they revisit and/or eclipse those lows? I hope so! Then I can finally get back in.
Dreamer
DOCN on sale today, for those still interested in the stock.
Seems like a well-run company, but macro concerns holding me back, as their core clientele is smb/start-ups and not sure how great this economic backdrop will be for those types over next few Q’s.
Having said that, if we continue having BMRs along the way to a final capitulation, I could see this being an easy bounce-back.
Dreamer
UPST halted.
What do we get…$13/14/15 at the extreme end?
KC is browsing that table near the checkout where last year’s end-of-summer, discontinued, look-what-we-found-in-=the-warehouse items are marked down an additional 25%. Yes, tossed some UPST and AFRM shares in the cart and breezed through the lonely checkout counter. What could go wrong with this company with the robust balance sheet as we head for the end of the tightening cycle and a return to the halcyon days of Helicopter Ben and the sunlight heights of low inflation, economic expansion??? Oh!, I have slipped the surly bonds of reason danced through the clearance sale aisles on laughter-silvered wings. Strawberry fields forever!!! Look at these cigar butts among the greenery!!! There is a good 2" of fine Cuban 'bacca left in that charred leaf!!! Come!!! Join me in the frolic. OMG! These were on sale at $24 last… week??? Whatever.
The band is playing somewhere , and somewhere hearts are light; And somewhere men are laughing, and somewhere children shout, But there is no joy on Wall Street for UPST has dropped its unmentionables in the punchbowl. Come lads!!! Help me gather up these fractional shares of the future earnings of this fine, cutting edge, what’s-good-for-the-masses-of falsely labelled credit risks-is-good-for-America company. What could go wrong???
KC, whose knee is thankfully fully recovered, allowing a sharp to-the-left cut at aisle 14 and a sprint to the AFRM display. Oh! the Joy!!!
Public Service Announcement: There was an uptick on UPST. Those shares that I stole at $13.99 are now being gobbled up at $14.11. Three-day rule??? What three-day-rule?
KC
Saul’s board blows my mind.
Posting “TTD Earnings Beat!” or whatever.
They did 31% y/y.
Where were all these clowns when TTD was growing 40-50% for years, when stock went from $4 to $30?
Typical approach by folks with no radar regarding valuations.
I am, ironically, disappointed with the TTD ER bounce. It will probably fade…dunno.
UPST continues to break hearts. TTD continues to confuse brains.
Still waiting for bear market capitulation. That will probably make everything clearer, when it does happen.
Dreamer
I believe mekong22 has been a long time holder of TTD. As for the rest of them, no idea.
As for me I’ve been holding TTD since I read about it from you Dreamer!!
I was holding out for about $40 to add to my position, we’ll see if it drops later.
zoro
listening to call.
amazing how little has changed in 5-6 years.
not necessarily negative, as the thesis is intact, but the mantra continues to be “ctv will be huge”.
Asia/China question being asked now, and that was supposed to be a mammoth market, but has done little since 2018 it seems. That can be more due to China and their reluctance to let foreign companies profit at their expense. My guess is China is/has stolen all the data/tech from TTD and has local competitors doing a lot of the work TTD would be doing.
Green blamed it on China covid lockdowns.
But I remember International was 15% of bus years ago, and now it is 10%. That is despite overall growth rate dropping in recent years, yet somehow the Intl is “still” growing 100% y/y. Doesn’t quite add up.
Dreamer
UPST “only” down about 10% now.
My unfilled $13.99 limit haunting me. Que sera sera.
10% down is like a random Thursday in this prolonged bear market, so not really a big deal at moment. I would have added more under $14, but likely to stand pat otherwise. Not like they will have a good ER next Q, so I see UPST as a longer-term play. Provided they stay in business AND their model truly is better than FICO, hard to see this not being much higher in a couple years.
But I am just a guy on the internet.
Dreamer
CPI print well-received.
Because it was .2% below expectations. Round up all the villagers and meet in the town square for a party!
Might be start of new BMR or 1-day wonder. We shall see. Might gain back most of the 2% I lost this week as I deployed cash.
Glad I got close to 30% invested, but wish another week of punishment had passed, as it would have gotten TTD even lower, GLBE probably below $18 at that point, and maybe PTLO would have faltered. Oh well.
Let’s see if/how fast these can run up, and if I am tempted to just take profits or hold thru EOY.
Dreamer
Yup.
As of this moment, gained all the week’s losses back.
-12% YTD.
Will this hold and rally build on gains, or will the carbonation fizzle all away, leaving you with a soda that takes like regret?
Dreamer
Interesting that the Saul stocks are getting a lot of love this morning. In recent weeks, my boring energy and consumer goods got a better bump than tech in the BMR’s This morning it’s not so. Does it mean anything? Got any legs? Anybody know? (<- not a serious question)
With my mind still reeling from the F vs. DDOG conversation, I decided to decide about my MF subscription. Frankly, I use the free boards about a gazillion times more often than I do the premium boards. I haven’t figured out how to tag or track or whatever the UPST premium board–which I think exists. I don’t have new money coming in, or rather I spend it all–what’s the old saw? Mostly on women and booze, the rest I just wasted… Anyway, I did renew. Still some rusty old core value beating inside that leads me to support the platform that provides WAFtT and Saul’s and New Paradigm (is there a pulse there still?) Uhmm. My mother would be proud. Easier to act on rusty old core values when the port was up double for the year. Sigh
KC
SNOW went down after ER results.
Shocking.
So shocking.
(sarcasm meter blaring)
Dreamer
Shocking!
Bear, Denny…others were sooooo wrong on TTD.
But ironically Bear an investor now…after missing a 10x move in mkt cap and still a 2x move in multiple even at currently “low” prices.
But let’s take their advice on investing as they give away most of 2020 gains and all of 2021 gains. Sure.
Good thread to keep for perpetuity, until it also disappears forever:
Dreamer
SHOCKING NEWS
ZS down in after ER release…apparently due to massively bloated valuation.
This is a developing story.
Dreamer <— guy who brought ZS pre-ipo to TMF boards/Saul attention years back
Uhm, ZS was up 8% on the day. Down 10% after hours.
Not much of a discount but I bought a teensy-bit. I’m a ZS investor with the intention of holding forever. I’ve held since November of…, uhm, let’s see… 2022. Almost a month now. Seems like forever in this market, though. Up 22%. (Pats self on back though not as flexible as I once were)
With some seriousness, I do feel the need to be invested more fully and I think it is time to buy whatever you think has that two to five years of that proverbial strong company performance.
Taking solace where I can find it:
CRWD position is up 10% and my $121 and $124 puts are (at this instant) out of the money. This is my top position at 5.0%.
VERI is 4.5% and is up 43%. Bought it also on 11/09, with the intent to hold forever.
SNOW is 3.1% of the port, up 5%. Bought half of that position on 11/09 (up 22%). What species of mushroom was I munching on that Wednesday night? I need to find more.
I have 13 positions in the green. I have 72% cash. 12% of port is in losing positions, 16% in positions with gains.
It is a start. Buy the dips. 
KC